Spring Buying Season

[Eugene]

I believe one of the HUGE misconceptions on this site is when people crow about how few people have money on the sidelines. In fact I believe the opposite is true and I feel that right now I have never seen more people who have money parked on the sidelines. The underestimation of the wealth that people in San Diego have is staggering.

There are always people with money parked on the sidelines. Especially at the top end. The question is, how far down the food chain that money extends. A couple with a steady income of 150K would be able to save up for a healthy 20% down payment on a house in Carlsbad in as little as 3 years, even with children. A couple making 80K would have so little disposable income available for savings that saving up 20% down payment on Mira Mesa would prove challenging.

As of 2006, median family income in the county was 69K, there were around 12,000 renter households making 150K or more.

[DWCAP]

SD R, THANKS! Spend an extra 10 minutes with the wife or kids before you go workin on any of my questions. I would like something that can apply to more than just me. How about something like PQ (92129)? Something with an upper and lower end range that will be indicative for alot of different data points (350k-1.2mil).

My point wasnt that there arnt enough people with downs. I know there are. The accumulated wealth in San Diego is staggering, and I am from Santa Barbara (land were MM homes would be 1.1mil). I dont doubt AT ALL the presence of homes being purchased now with huge downs. Bet I could find a few with 30-40% down.

My question is more WHERE is the money coming from. You have 20% down. But HOW????

I have a feeling that it breaks down into age groups. People my age dont save. They dont know how to. My roommates idea of saving is the change from his pockets being dumped into a bottle. My office mate lives paycheck to paycheck, but lives at home with no rent ($800 purses will do that). Both want houses. So the only answer I have here is PARENTS and 401k/gov. Are there good people saving like mad? DUH, but it is hard when you are 25 making 35k year.

Those in their 30’s or so have rode out the bubble saving like mad to try to get into the game. They have promotions and raises that are more than 2-4%/yr and are finally “becoming someone”. They worked hard, saved hard, and suddenly their 5% became 10% when prices fell 20%. Raid the 401k, and their is your 20%

Those older than that prob have been saving for years, and sold a house the doubled or trippeled in value. No prob.

My thought process lies more along these lines:

Right now home builders stocks are going up, even though the buisness is the worst in decades if EVER. HOV is up 50% this year! Seems dumb huh? The idea is that itll all rebound soon, and prices look good compared to the past, so buy the dip cause it is up up up starting in Q3.
I get alot of the same idea from those I know. Prices rose longer than the collective memory of our society, so they dont understand a dip. NAR propaganda tells them it is a temporary crisis, so they pile in cause they finally can and dont want to miss their chance. To quote an early 2007 buyer “How long do you think this is gonna last?”
The problem is that we are in Housing bubble act 2. The fed is killing the dollar to get rates down to avoid depression #2. This will change. Rates will go back up. Hell, this all started cause rates went up and people couldnt refi 1% rates anymore. So when inflation eventually gets addressed, and the gov stops inflating the economy with 500billion/yr war spending the music stops all over again.
So I get the feeling that we are in a minibubble. A boomlet, a aftershock. It is a short period of time when buying looks good compared to the past, with todays rates. I dont think itll hold. To me, we are in 1993. We still have 3 years of economic junk to work through, even if we are not in recession during those years, and prices wont be going up till the junk is gone, even if they arnt going down much more either.

So can people make sound economic choices to buy today with 20+% downs. Yes. But my money is riding on the idea that I can wait till 2011, let the economic junk pass me by as a renter saving, and then buy at 10% off today’s prices, but with 2011’s dollar. Inflation takes a long time to work at 2-4% wage growth.

[DWCAP]

SD R, THANKS! Spend an extra 10 minutes with the wife or kids before you go workin on any of my questions. I would like something that can apply to more than just me. How about something like PQ (92129)? Something with an upper and lower end range that will be indicative for alot of different data points (350k-1.2mil).

My point wasnt that there arnt enough people with downs. I know there are. The accumulated wealth in San Diego is staggering, and I am from Santa Barbara (land were MM homes would be 1.1mil). I dont doubt AT ALL the presence of homes being purchased now with huge downs. Bet I could find a few with 30-40% down.

My question is more WHERE is the money coming from. You have 20% down. But HOW????

I have a feeling that it breaks down into age groups. People my age dont save. They dont know how to. My roommates idea of saving is the change from his pockets being dumped into a bottle. My office mate lives paycheck to paycheck, but lives at home with no rent ($800 purses will do that). Both want houses. So the only answer I have here is PARENTS and 401k/gov. Are there good people saving like mad? DUH, but it is hard when you are 25 making 35k year.

Those in their 30’s or so have rode out the bubble saving like mad to try to get into the game. They have promotions and raises that are more than 2-4%/yr and are finally “becoming someone”. They worked hard, saved hard, and suddenly their 5% became 10% when prices fell 20%. Raid the 401k, and their is your 20%

Those older than that prob have been saving for years, and sold a house the doubled or trippeled in value. No prob.

My thought process lies more along these lines:

Right now home builders stocks are going up, even though the buisness is the worst in decades if EVER. HOV is up 50% this year! Seems dumb huh? The idea is that itll all rebound soon, and prices look good compared to the past, so buy the dip cause it is up up up starting in Q3.
I get alot of the same idea from those I know. Prices rose longer than the collective memory of our society, so they dont understand a dip. NAR propaganda tells them it is a temporary crisis, so they pile in cause they finally can and dont want to miss their chance. To quote an early 2007 buyer “How long do you think this is gonna last?”
The problem is that we are in Housing bubble act 2. The fed is killing the dollar to get rates down to avoid depression #2. This will change. Rates will go back up. Hell, this all started cause rates went up and people couldnt refi 1% rates anymore. So when inflation eventually gets addressed, and the gov stops inflating the economy with 500billion/yr war spending the music stops all over again.
So I get the feeling that we are in a minibubble. A boomlet, a aftershock. It is a short period of time when buying looks good compared to the past, with todays rates. I dont think itll hold. To me, we are in 1993. We still have 3 years of economic junk to work through, even if we are not in recession during those years, and prices wont be going up till the junk is gone, even if they arnt going down much more either.

So can people make sound economic choices to buy today with 20+% downs. Yes. But my money is riding on the idea that I can wait till 2011, let the economic junk pass me by as a renter saving, and then buy at 10% off today’s prices, but with 2011’s dollar. Inflation takes a long time to work at 2-4% wage growth.

[DWCAP]

SD R, THANKS! Spend an extra 10 minutes with the wife or kids before you go workin on any of my questions. I would like something that can apply to more than just me. How about something like PQ (92129)? Something with an upper and lower end range that will be indicative for alot of different data points (350k-1.2mil).

My point wasnt that there arnt enough people with downs. I know there are. The accumulated wealth in San Diego is staggering, and I am from Santa Barbara (land were MM homes would be 1.1mil). I dont doubt AT ALL the presence of homes being purchased now with huge downs. Bet I could find a few with 30-40% down.

My question is more WHERE is the money coming from. You have 20% down. But HOW????

I have a feeling that it breaks down into age groups. People my age dont save. They dont know how to. My roommates idea of saving is the change from his pockets being dumped into a bottle. My office mate lives paycheck to paycheck, but lives at home with no rent ($800 purses will do that). Both want houses. So the only answer I have here is PARENTS and 401k/gov. Are there good people saving like mad? DUH, but it is hard when you are 25 making 35k year.

Those in their 30’s or so have rode out the bubble saving like mad to try to get into the game. They have promotions and raises that are more than 2-4%/yr and are finally “becoming someone”. They worked hard, saved hard, and suddenly their 5% became 10% when prices fell 20%. Raid the 401k, and their is your 20%

Those older than that prob have been saving for years, and sold a house the doubled or trippeled in value. No prob.

My thought process lies more along these lines:

Right now home builders stocks are going up, even though the buisness is the worst in decades if EVER. HOV is up 50% this year! Seems dumb huh? The idea is that itll all rebound soon, and prices look good compared to the past, so buy the dip cause it is up up up starting in Q3.
I get alot of the same idea from those I know. Prices rose longer than the collective memory of our society, so they dont understand a dip. NAR propaganda tells them it is a temporary crisis, so they pile in cause they finally can and dont want to miss their chance. To quote an early 2007 buyer “How long do you think this is gonna last?”
The problem is that we are in Housing bubble act 2. The fed is killing the dollar to get rates down to avoid depression #2. This will change. Rates will go back up. Hell, this all started cause rates went up and people couldnt refi 1% rates anymore. So when inflation eventually gets addressed, and the gov stops inflating the economy with 500billion/yr war spending the music stops all over again.
So I get the feeling that we are in a minibubble. A boomlet, a aftershock. It is a short period of time when buying looks good compared to the past, with todays rates. I dont think itll hold. To me, we are in 1993. We still have 3 years of economic junk to work through, even if we are not in recession during those years, and prices wont be going up till the junk is gone, even if they arnt going down much more either.

So can people make sound economic choices to buy today with 20+% downs. Yes. But my money is riding on the idea that I can wait till 2011, let the economic junk pass me by as a renter saving, and then buy at 10% off today’s prices, but with 2011’s dollar. Inflation takes a long time to work at 2-4% wage growth.

[DWCAP]

SD R, THANKS! Spend an extra 10 minutes with the wife or kids before you go workin on any of my questions. I would like something that can apply to more than just me. How about something like PQ (92129)? Something with an upper and lower end range that will be indicative for alot of different data points (350k-1.2mil).

My point wasnt that there arnt enough people with downs. I know there are. The accumulated wealth in San Diego is staggering, and I am from Santa Barbara (land were MM homes would be 1.1mil). I dont doubt AT ALL the presence of homes being purchased now with huge downs. Bet I could find a few with 30-40% down.

My question is more WHERE is the money coming from. You have 20% down. But HOW????

I have a feeling that it breaks down into age groups. People my age dont save. They dont know how to. My roommates idea of saving is the change from his pockets being dumped into a bottle. My office mate lives paycheck to paycheck, but lives at home with no rent ($800 purses will do that). Both want houses. So the only answer I have here is PARENTS and 401k/gov. Are there good people saving like mad? DUH, but it is hard when you are 25 making 35k year.

Those in their 30’s or so have rode out the bubble saving like mad to try to get into the game. They have promotions and raises that are more than 2-4%/yr and are finally “becoming someone”. They worked hard, saved hard, and suddenly their 5% became 10% when prices fell 20%. Raid the 401k, and their is your 20%

Those older than that prob have been saving for years, and sold a house the doubled or trippeled in value. No prob.

My thought process lies more along these lines:

Right now home builders stocks are going up, even though the buisness is the worst in decades if EVER. HOV is up 50% this year! Seems dumb huh? The idea is that itll all rebound soon, and prices look good compared to the past, so buy the dip cause it is up up up starting in Q3.
I get alot of the same idea from those I know. Prices rose longer than the collective memory of our society, so they dont understand a dip. NAR propaganda tells them it is a temporary crisis, so they pile in cause they finally can and dont want to miss their chance. To quote an early 2007 buyer “How long do you think this is gonna last?”
The problem is that we are in Housing bubble act 2. The fed is killing the dollar to get rates down to avoid depression #2. This will change. Rates will go back up. Hell, this all started cause rates went up and people couldnt refi 1% rates anymore. So when inflation eventually gets addressed, and the gov stops inflating the economy with 500billion/yr war spending the music stops all over again.
So I get the feeling that we are in a minibubble. A boomlet, a aftershock. It is a short period of time when buying looks good compared to the past, with todays rates. I dont think itll hold. To me, we are in 1993. We still have 3 years of economic junk to work through, even if we are not in recession during those years, and prices wont be going up till the junk is gone, even if they arnt going down much more either.

So can people make sound economic choices to buy today with 20+% downs. Yes. But my money is riding on the idea that I can wait till 2011, let the economic junk pass me by as a renter saving, and then buy at 10% off today’s prices, but with 2011’s dollar. Inflation takes a long time to work at 2-4% wage growth.

[DWCAP]

SD R, THANKS! Spend an extra 10 minutes with the wife or kids before you go workin on any of my questions. I would like something that can apply to more than just me. How about something like PQ (92129)? Something with an upper and lower end range that will be indicative for alot of different data points (350k-1.2mil).

My point wasnt that there arnt enough people with downs. I know there are. The accumulated wealth in San Diego is staggering, and I am from Santa Barbara (land were MM homes would be 1.1mil). I dont doubt AT ALL the presence of homes being purchased now with huge downs. Bet I could find a few with 30-40% down.

My question is more WHERE is the money coming from. You have 20% down. But HOW????

I have a feeling that it breaks down into age groups. People my age dont save. They dont know how to. My roommates idea of saving is the change from his pockets being dumped into a bottle. My office mate lives paycheck to paycheck, but lives at home with no rent ($800 purses will do that). Both want houses. So the only answer I have here is PARENTS and 401k/gov. Are there good people saving like mad? DUH, but it is hard when you are 25 making 35k year.

Those in their 30’s or so have rode out the bubble saving like mad to try to get into the game. They have promotions and raises that are more than 2-4%/yr and are finally “becoming someone”. They worked hard, saved hard, and suddenly their 5% became 10% when prices fell 20%. Raid the 401k, and their is your 20%

Those older than that prob have been saving for years, and sold a house the doubled or trippeled in value. No prob.

My thought process lies more along these lines:

Right now home builders stocks are going up, even though the buisness is the worst in decades if EVER. HOV is up 50% this year! Seems dumb huh? The idea is that itll all rebound soon, and prices look good compared to the past, so buy the dip cause it is up up up starting in Q3.
I get alot of the same idea from those I know. Prices rose longer than the collective memory of our society, so they dont understand a dip. NAR propaganda tells them it is a temporary crisis, so they pile in cause they finally can and dont want to miss their chance. To quote an early 2007 buyer “How long do you think this is gonna last?”
The problem is that we are in Housing bubble act 2. The fed is killing the dollar to get rates down to avoid depression #2. This will change. Rates will go back up. Hell, this all started cause rates went up and people couldnt refi 1% rates anymore. So when inflation eventually gets addressed, and the gov stops inflating the economy with 500billion/yr war spending the music stops all over again.
So I get the feeling that we are in a minibubble. A boomlet, a aftershock. It is a short period of time when buying looks good compared to the past, with todays rates. I dont think itll hold. To me, we are in 1993. We still have 3 years of economic junk to work through, even if we are not in recession during those years, and prices wont be going up till the junk is gone, even if they arnt going down much more either.

So can people make sound economic choices to buy today with 20+% downs. Yes. But my money is riding on the idea that I can wait till 2011, let the economic junk pass me by as a renter saving, and then buy at 10% off today’s prices, but with 2011’s dollar. Inflation takes a long time to work at 2-4% wage growth.

[SD Realtor]

Ok here are the most recent 15 sales of detached homes in PQ.

12274 Darkwood not recorded yet
7063 Cantaberra 855k financed 684k dp 171k
9151 Truman 665k financed 0 full cash deal
7408 Via Cresta 720k financed 540k dp 180k
11220 Del Diablo 465k financed 418.5k dp 46.5k
12775 Calle De Las Rosas 450k financed 390k dp 60k
12614 La Tortola 602k financed 302k dp 300k
8925 Rotherham 710k financed 532.5 dp 177.5k
13973 Byrn Glen Court 750k financed 506.25k dp 243.75k
9368 Hito Ct 670k financed 502.5k dp 167.5k
12476 Texana 525k financed 498.75 dp 26.25k
8790 Donaker 628k financed 398k dp 230k
13278 Deron 525k financed 417k dp 108k
12220 Pipit 700k financed 560k dp 140k
14415 Janal Way 594k financed 417k dp 177k

So as anyone here can see, the statistics are staggering in favor of people coming up with 20% down. I gave up long long ago trying to figure out how/where people come up with money. It is the same thing as other facets of the real estate market…. Why are people buying right now. Why do people do what they do? It doesn’t matter right?

As far as homebuilders stocks going up… well many of those stocks were at or near book value. I know for a fact that KHOV is more then a little distressed and they could very well go under.

Your strategy is quite sound DW, you will do fine as long as the rate of housing depreciation outpaces inflation.

Those that contend, “where will people get the money for a downpayment” and nobody can afford a big dp, well I don’t really buy into that. The market will go down simply because of a lack of demand. While the demand is lacking because of prices being out of whack, it doesn’t imply that people don’t have the money, it is simply that those with the money are being prudent. Also yes a component of that demand that helped inflate the bubble, heavily financed buyers has for the most part been removed, and will hopefully stay removed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Ok here are the most recent 15 sales of detached homes in PQ.

12274 Darkwood not recorded yet
7063 Cantaberra 855k financed 684k dp 171k
9151 Truman 665k financed 0 full cash deal
7408 Via Cresta 720k financed 540k dp 180k
11220 Del Diablo 465k financed 418.5k dp 46.5k
12775 Calle De Las Rosas 450k financed 390k dp 60k
12614 La Tortola 602k financed 302k dp 300k
8925 Rotherham 710k financed 532.5 dp 177.5k
13973 Byrn Glen Court 750k financed 506.25k dp 243.75k
9368 Hito Ct 670k financed 502.5k dp 167.5k
12476 Texana 525k financed 498.75 dp 26.25k
8790 Donaker 628k financed 398k dp 230k
13278 Deron 525k financed 417k dp 108k
12220 Pipit 700k financed 560k dp 140k
14415 Janal Way 594k financed 417k dp 177k

So as anyone here can see, the statistics are staggering in favor of people coming up with 20% down. I gave up long long ago trying to figure out how/where people come up with money. It is the same thing as other facets of the real estate market…. Why are people buying right now. Why do people do what they do? It doesn’t matter right?

As far as homebuilders stocks going up… well many of those stocks were at or near book value. I know for a fact that KHOV is more then a little distressed and they could very well go under.

Your strategy is quite sound DW, you will do fine as long as the rate of housing depreciation outpaces inflation.

Those that contend, “where will people get the money for a downpayment” and nobody can afford a big dp, well I don’t really buy into that. The market will go down simply because of a lack of demand. While the demand is lacking because of prices being out of whack, it doesn’t imply that people don’t have the money, it is simply that those with the money are being prudent. Also yes a component of that demand that helped inflate the bubble, heavily financed buyers has for the most part been removed, and will hopefully stay removed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Ok here are the most recent 15 sales of detached homes in PQ.

12274 Darkwood not recorded yet
7063 Cantaberra 855k financed 684k dp 171k
9151 Truman 665k financed 0 full cash deal
7408 Via Cresta 720k financed 540k dp 180k
11220 Del Diablo 465k financed 418.5k dp 46.5k
12775 Calle De Las Rosas 450k financed 390k dp 60k
12614 La Tortola 602k financed 302k dp 300k
8925 Rotherham 710k financed 532.5 dp 177.5k
13973 Byrn Glen Court 750k financed 506.25k dp 243.75k
9368 Hito Ct 670k financed 502.5k dp 167.5k
12476 Texana 525k financed 498.75 dp 26.25k
8790 Donaker 628k financed 398k dp 230k
13278 Deron 525k financed 417k dp 108k
12220 Pipit 700k financed 560k dp 140k
14415 Janal Way 594k financed 417k dp 177k

So as anyone here can see, the statistics are staggering in favor of people coming up with 20% down. I gave up long long ago trying to figure out how/where people come up with money. It is the same thing as other facets of the real estate market…. Why are people buying right now. Why do people do what they do? It doesn’t matter right?

As far as homebuilders stocks going up… well many of those stocks were at or near book value. I know for a fact that KHOV is more then a little distressed and they could very well go under.

Your strategy is quite sound DW, you will do fine as long as the rate of housing depreciation outpaces inflation.

Those that contend, “where will people get the money for a downpayment” and nobody can afford a big dp, well I don’t really buy into that. The market will go down simply because of a lack of demand. While the demand is lacking because of prices being out of whack, it doesn’t imply that people don’t have the money, it is simply that those with the money are being prudent. Also yes a component of that demand that helped inflate the bubble, heavily financed buyers has for the most part been removed, and will hopefully stay removed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Ok here are the most recent 15 sales of detached homes in PQ.

12274 Darkwood not recorded yet
7063 Cantaberra 855k financed 684k dp 171k
9151 Truman 665k financed 0 full cash deal
7408 Via Cresta 720k financed 540k dp 180k
11220 Del Diablo 465k financed 418.5k dp 46.5k
12775 Calle De Las Rosas 450k financed 390k dp 60k
12614 La Tortola 602k financed 302k dp 300k
8925 Rotherham 710k financed 532.5 dp 177.5k
13973 Byrn Glen Court 750k financed 506.25k dp 243.75k
9368 Hito Ct 670k financed 502.5k dp 167.5k
12476 Texana 525k financed 498.75 dp 26.25k
8790 Donaker 628k financed 398k dp 230k
13278 Deron 525k financed 417k dp 108k
12220 Pipit 700k financed 560k dp 140k
14415 Janal Way 594k financed 417k dp 177k

So as anyone here can see, the statistics are staggering in favor of people coming up with 20% down. I gave up long long ago trying to figure out how/where people come up with money. It is the same thing as other facets of the real estate market…. Why are people buying right now. Why do people do what they do? It doesn’t matter right?

As far as homebuilders stocks going up… well many of those stocks were at or near book value. I know for a fact that KHOV is more then a little distressed and they could very well go under.

Your strategy is quite sound DW, you will do fine as long as the rate of housing depreciation outpaces inflation.

Those that contend, “where will people get the money for a downpayment” and nobody can afford a big dp, well I don’t really buy into that. The market will go down simply because of a lack of demand. While the demand is lacking because of prices being out of whack, it doesn’t imply that people don’t have the money, it is simply that those with the money are being prudent. Also yes a component of that demand that helped inflate the bubble, heavily financed buyers has for the most part been removed, and will hopefully stay removed.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Ok here are the most recent 15 sales of detached homes in PQ.

12274 Darkwood not recorded yet
7063 Cantaberra 855k financed 684k dp 171k
9151 Truman 665k financed 0 full cash deal
7408 Via Cresta 720k financed 540k dp 180k
11220 Del Diablo 465k financed 418.5k dp 46.5k
12775 Calle De Las Rosas 450k financed 390k dp 60k
12614 La Tortola 602k financed 302k dp 300k
8925 Rotherham 710k financed 532.5 dp 177.5k
13973 Byrn Glen Court 750k financed 506.25k dp 243.75k
9368 Hito Ct 670k financed 502.5k dp 167.5k
12476 Texana 525k financed 498.75 dp 26.25k
8790 Donaker 628k financed 398k dp 230k
13278 Deron 525k financed 417k dp 108k
12220 Pipit 700k financed 560k dp 140k
14415 Janal Way 594k financed 417k dp 177k

So as anyone here can see, the statistics are staggering in favor of people coming up with 20% down. I gave up long long ago trying to figure out how/where people come up with money. It is the same thing as other facets of the real estate market…. Why are people buying right now. Why do people do what they do? It doesn’t matter right?

As far as homebuilders stocks going up… well many of those stocks were at or near book value. I know for a fact that KHOV is more then a little distressed and they could very well go under.

Your strategy is quite sound DW, you will do fine as long as the rate of housing depreciation outpaces inflation.

Those that contend, “where will people get the money for a downpayment” and nobody can afford a big dp, well I don’t really buy into that. The market will go down simply because of a lack of demand. While the demand is lacking because of prices being out of whack, it doesn’t imply that people don’t have the money, it is simply that those with the money are being prudent. Also yes a component of that demand that helped inflate the bubble, heavily financed buyers has for the most part been removed, and will hopefully stay removed.

SD Realtor

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

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