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smshorttimer.
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August 8, 2008 at 9:48 PM #255112August 8, 2008 at 9:48 PM #255169
SD Realtor
ParticipantJames it is like CA Renter pointed out, they are selling BECAUSE of aggressive pricing. I would not get worried at all. I would however reset expectations. In the late winter and early spring I was hoping by late summer things would be slower. They are not so now I am pushing back another 6 months into winter of 08. Again, without an external catalyst I don’t see much change happening in MM.
August 8, 2008 at 9:48 PM #255221ParticipantJames it is like CA Renter pointed out, they are selling BECAUSE of aggressive pricing. I would not get worried at all. I would however reset expectations. In the late winter and early spring I was hoping by late summer things would be slower. They are not so now I am pushing back another 6 months into winter of 08. Again, without an external catalyst I don’t see much change happening in MM.
August 9, 2008 at 1:39 AM #255016CA renter
ParticipantLike others have said rents only go down when people leave the area.
—————I respectfully disagree.
What about when all the empty homes now in “shadow” inventory come on the market. IIRC, about 1/3+ of the homes on the market right now are empty.
What happens when people double/triple up? It’s very easy for a couple or a single person to move back in with parents or take in a new roommate.
IMO, Drunkle is right about 1/3 HH income going to rent as being too high — especially for those who make $65K or less. Stupid, stupid, stupid — and yes, I’m calling all the renters “stupid” if they are making $65K (gross HH income)
and paying $2K+ rent.Very soon, the credit bubble is going to bite all these fools on the a$$, and they will find themselves older and poorer than they were 10 years ago. It seems nobody is saving up for retirement or for emergencies. Most people cannot pay 50% of their net income toward housing and still manage to save after all other living expenses are paid. What about savings???? Maybe that’s why everyone is eyeball-deep in debt and everyone is panicking about the “weak consumer.”
Prices are determined by what buyers are able/willing to pay (and that includes rent). The newbie LLs think they are making a killing charging high rents, but their tenants will have to live with more people/unit in order to make these payments over time, IMO. These arrangements often end up with high turnover and LOTS of damage/maintenance issues.
Years ago, I was one of the only bears who argued that rents would go up in the beginning of the downturn. That being said, I also said rents would go down as inventory is released from reluctant sellers (banks, FBs and old-timers who missed the top). Time will tell which theory is right.
August 9, 2008 at 1:39 AM #255187ParticipantLike others have said rents only go down when people leave the area.
—————I respectfully disagree.
What about when all the empty homes now in “shadow” inventory come on the market. IIRC, about 1/3+ of the homes on the market right now are empty.
What happens when people double/triple up? It’s very easy for a couple or a single person to move back in with parents or take in a new roommate.
IMO, Drunkle is right about 1/3 HH income going to rent as being too high — especially for those who make $65K or less. Stupid, stupid, stupid — and yes, I’m calling all the renters “stupid” if they are making $65K (gross HH income)
and paying $2K+ rent.Very soon, the credit bubble is going to bite all these fools on the a$$, and they will find themselves older and poorer than they were 10 years ago. It seems nobody is saving up for retirement or for emergencies. Most people cannot pay 50% of their net income toward housing and still manage to save after all other living expenses are paid. What about savings???? Maybe that’s why everyone is eyeball-deep in debt and everyone is panicking about the “weak consumer.”
Prices are determined by what buyers are able/willing to pay (and that includes rent). The newbie LLs think they are making a killing charging high rents, but their tenants will have to live with more people/unit in order to make these payments over time, IMO. These arrangements often end up with high turnover and LOTS of damage/maintenance issues.
Years ago, I was one of the only bears who argued that rents would go up in the beginning of the downturn. That being said, I also said rents would go down as inventory is released from reluctant sellers (banks, FBs and old-timers who missed the top). Time will tell which theory is right.
August 9, 2008 at 1:39 AM #255192ParticipantLike others have said rents only go down when people leave the area.
—————I respectfully disagree.
What about when all the empty homes now in “shadow” inventory come on the market. IIRC, about 1/3+ of the homes on the market right now are empty.
What happens when people double/triple up? It’s very easy for a couple or a single person to move back in with parents or take in a new roommate.
IMO, Drunkle is right about 1/3 HH income going to rent as being too high — especially for those who make $65K or less. Stupid, stupid, stupid — and yes, I’m calling all the renters “stupid” if they are making $65K (gross HH income)
and paying $2K+ rent.Very soon, the credit bubble is going to bite all these fools on the a$$, and they will find themselves older and poorer than they were 10 years ago. It seems nobody is saving up for retirement or for emergencies. Most people cannot pay 50% of their net income toward housing and still manage to save after all other living expenses are paid. What about savings???? Maybe that’s why everyone is eyeball-deep in debt and everyone is panicking about the “weak consumer.”
Prices are determined by what buyers are able/willing to pay (and that includes rent). The newbie LLs think they are making a killing charging high rents, but their tenants will have to live with more people/unit in order to make these payments over time, IMO. These arrangements often end up with high turnover and LOTS of damage/maintenance issues.
Years ago, I was one of the only bears who argued that rents would go up in the beginning of the downturn. That being said, I also said rents would go down as inventory is released from reluctant sellers (banks, FBs and old-timers who missed the top). Time will tell which theory is right.
August 9, 2008 at 1:39 AM #255251ParticipantLike others have said rents only go down when people leave the area.
—————I respectfully disagree.
What about when all the empty homes now in “shadow” inventory come on the market. IIRC, about 1/3+ of the homes on the market right now are empty.
What happens when people double/triple up? It’s very easy for a couple or a single person to move back in with parents or take in a new roommate.
IMO, Drunkle is right about 1/3 HH income going to rent as being too high — especially for those who make $65K or less. Stupid, stupid, stupid — and yes, I’m calling all the renters “stupid” if they are making $65K (gross HH income)
and paying $2K+ rent.Very soon, the credit bubble is going to bite all these fools on the a$$, and they will find themselves older and poorer than they were 10 years ago. It seems nobody is saving up for retirement or for emergencies. Most people cannot pay 50% of their net income toward housing and still manage to save after all other living expenses are paid. What about savings???? Maybe that’s why everyone is eyeball-deep in debt and everyone is panicking about the “weak consumer.”
Prices are determined by what buyers are able/willing to pay (and that includes rent). The newbie LLs think they are making a killing charging high rents, but their tenants will have to live with more people/unit in order to make these payments over time, IMO. These arrangements often end up with high turnover and LOTS of damage/maintenance issues.
Years ago, I was one of the only bears who argued that rents would go up in the beginning of the downturn. That being said, I also said rents would go down as inventory is released from reluctant sellers (banks, FBs and old-timers who missed the top). Time will tell which theory is right.
August 9, 2008 at 1:39 AM #255299ParticipantLike others have said rents only go down when people leave the area.
—————I respectfully disagree.
What about when all the empty homes now in “shadow” inventory come on the market. IIRC, about 1/3+ of the homes on the market right now are empty.
What happens when people double/triple up? It’s very easy for a couple or a single person to move back in with parents or take in a new roommate.
IMO, Drunkle is right about 1/3 HH income going to rent as being too high — especially for those who make $65K or less. Stupid, stupid, stupid — and yes, I’m calling all the renters “stupid” if they are making $65K (gross HH income)
and paying $2K+ rent.Very soon, the credit bubble is going to bite all these fools on the a$$, and they will find themselves older and poorer than they were 10 years ago. It seems nobody is saving up for retirement or for emergencies. Most people cannot pay 50% of their net income toward housing and still manage to save after all other living expenses are paid. What about savings???? Maybe that’s why everyone is eyeball-deep in debt and everyone is panicking about the “weak consumer.”
Prices are determined by what buyers are able/willing to pay (and that includes rent). The newbie LLs think they are making a killing charging high rents, but their tenants will have to live with more people/unit in order to make these payments over time, IMO. These arrangements often end up with high turnover and LOTS of damage/maintenance issues.
Years ago, I was one of the only bears who argued that rents would go up in the beginning of the downturn. That being said, I also said rents would go down as inventory is released from reluctant sellers (banks, FBs and old-timers who missed the top). Time will tell which theory is right.
August 9, 2008 at 3:28 AM #255056gdcox
ParticipantQuestion for you SDRealtor.
These buyers in MM . Who are they in terms of classification. What is the very rough split between new people to SD, local first time buyers, buy-to-let investors and any other categorization you would use to break it down. Until one knows the breakdown it is hard to comment on the sustainability of the apparent stability achieved in the market recently.
ThanksAugust 9, 2008 at 3:28 AM #255227ParticipantQuestion for you SDRealtor.
These buyers in MM . Who are they in terms of classification. What is the very rough split between new people to SD, local first time buyers, buy-to-let investors and any other categorization you would use to break it down. Until one knows the breakdown it is hard to comment on the sustainability of the apparent stability achieved in the market recently.
ThanksAugust 9, 2008 at 3:28 AM #255233ParticipantQuestion for you SDRealtor.
These buyers in MM . Who are they in terms of classification. What is the very rough split between new people to SD, local first time buyers, buy-to-let investors and any other categorization you would use to break it down. Until one knows the breakdown it is hard to comment on the sustainability of the apparent stability achieved in the market recently.
ThanksAugust 9, 2008 at 3:28 AM #255289ParticipantQuestion for you SDRealtor.
These buyers in MM . Who are they in terms of classification. What is the very rough split between new people to SD, local first time buyers, buy-to-let investors and any other categorization you would use to break it down. Until one knows the breakdown it is hard to comment on the sustainability of the apparent stability achieved in the market recently.
ThanksAugust 9, 2008 at 3:28 AM #255339ParticipantQuestion for you SDRealtor.
These buyers in MM . Who are they in terms of classification. What is the very rough split between new people to SD, local first time buyers, buy-to-let investors and any other categorization you would use to break it down. Until one knows the breakdown it is hard to comment on the sustainability of the apparent stability achieved in the market recently.
ThanksAugust 9, 2008 at 10:38 AM #255105Participantgd in terms of who is buying I am not sure of the composition of the other buyers. For the people I am working with the composition is that the homes are very affordable for them but they are trying to seek pricing that is a tad lower then the current market values. Demographically they are engineers and professionals and not investors. Yet they do want to get a good price so that they can rent the home out in the future if they so desire. As far as clients I do not work with, I have heard that some of the purchases are indeed being made by investors yet I have not traced recent sales and correlated them to rental postings on say craigslist.
August 9, 2008 at 10:38 AM #255277Participantgd in terms of who is buying I am not sure of the composition of the other buyers. For the people I am working with the composition is that the homes are very affordable for them but they are trying to seek pricing that is a tad lower then the current market values. Demographically they are engineers and professionals and not investors. Yet they do want to get a good price so that they can rent the home out in the future if they so desire. As far as clients I do not work with, I have heard that some of the purchases are indeed being made by investors yet I have not traced recent sales and correlated them to rental postings on say craigslist.
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