So… Who’s left?

[CA renter]

Ha! You too, Josh? 🙂

Congratulations on your purchase!

[paramount]

The real crash hasn’t happened yet; although the 1%ers in CV/RSF and other wealthy coastal areas will not be impacted like the remaining 99%.

How long can the feds keep the rates at 0%?

[CA renter]

Correct, paramount. All the while, the debt keeps piling up.

I suppose all the talk about sequestration, spending cuts, raising taxes, etc., is supposed to be inflationary to some, but I’m not buying it. Though the monetization schemes of the Fed are indeed inflationary, you can have “inflation” but still see nominal price declines and a slowing economy since the Fed might not be willing/able to fully offset the deflationary forces. Only time will tell how this all ends, but they will do their best to keep kicking the proverbial can down the road. We have decades’ worth of credit expansion and spending that have to be wound down.

[earlyretirement]

Yep. You can’t keep printing endless supplies of money with NO consequences. It can last for a little while but there WILL be a day of reckoning and you just have to be prepared for it.

[SD Realtor]

I agree about the day of reckoning. Make no mistake, it will come. Hard to say if it will be a high speed wipeout, like a full on collapse of the bond market, or a slow painful squeeze of the monetary supply contracting and rates rising over a 5 or 10 year span. Where I disagree with the doomsday sentiment is when. I do believe that we can kick the can down the road for many years. Maybe 2, maybe 5, maybe 20. If the world keeps wanting to play then there is no problem.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=SD Realtor]I agree about the day of reckoning. Make no mistake, it will come. Hard to say if it will be a high speed wipeout, like a full on collapse of the bond market, or a slow painful squeeze of the monetary supply contracting and rates rising over a 5 or 10 year span. Where I disagree with the doomsday sentiment is when. I do believe that we can kick the can down the road for many years. Maybe 2, maybe 5, maybe 20. If the world keeps wanting to play then there is no problem.[/quote]

I don’t think anyone would deny that there will be some severe “day of reckoning”. Definitely we won’t see it in the near term (of a few short years).

The USA is very fortunate that it’s essentially the World’s Reserve Currency. That buys the USA quite a bit of time. People don’t realize how much we depend on China. For all the talk about things changing and another currency taking over the US dollar. The reality is it won’t happen most likely for decades. And China is in a catch 22 position. They can’t afford for the US Dollar to fall apart. It just won’t happen in the short term. And it’s not like China doesn’t have it’s own problems to deal with. Because they most certainly do.

The reality is there really is no alternative. Forget Euros, Sterling, etc. Europe still has TONS of problems.

By no means am I saying that there aren’t problems on the horizon because I’m quite confident they are. But there are problems all over the world. I think the best you can do is think worst case scenarios out and be prepared.

For me, planning for worst case scenarios includes having real estate/assets/bank accounts/credit cards/etc. in some other countries besides the USA. As well, getting permanent residency status or even picking up another passport from another country is something that would be extremely wise.

No one likes thinking or planning for a worst case scenario problem but it’s probably wise to consider it.

[Navydoc]

Still here, still read occaisionally, but not nearly as much as before. Now that I own property in San Diego I find the market less interesting, since I intend to leave this house to my daughter. Doesn’t matter one whit what it’s worth, as long as I can afford it. during my 3-year prison sentence in Bethesda this site kept hope alive, and dreaming about San Diego WAS my crack (see other thread).

[no_such_reality]

Banks push bonds to school building group

Why settle for just getting rich when you can indenture future generations.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=barnaby33]This has happened multiple times. Sometimes for the better. Anyone want Powayseller back? Lots of people came and went, some stayed.

I think all the other angles have been covered and I’d just say, yeah, what afx said.

Oh and in case I forgot to come out of the closet, I bought a townhouse/condo in Mission Valley.

Josh[/quote]

… powayseller, Trader Chris aka Chris Scoreboard, docteur, Bugs, PD, PerryChase and jg. Lot’s of fun between those folks, not to mention sdr and powayseller going at it. That was back when flu’s name was FatLazyUnionGuy or something like that.

sdr and powayseller certainly provided a lot of entertainment back in the day.

[Aecetia]

I have to agree with this part of ER’s post:
“Personally I think prices are coming up too far too fast. It’s simply not healthy. But with human nature, these people that have purchased (and used to read/post) might not even want to think about a potential crash coming.”:

“As reported by the NYT, a recent study has revealed a pattern of risky lending by the Federal Housing Administration that could trigger a spike in the agency’s foreclosure rates.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fha-and-the-next-housing-bubble-2012-12#ixzz2LxCnMqD8

[CA renter]

[quote=no_such_reality] Banks push bonds to school building group

Why settle for just getting rich when you can indenture future generations.[/quote]

And this is why we’re in the mess we’re in today. These are also the people who are trying to push the nonsense about unions being behind our financial problems. The boots-on-the-ground workers who **do the work** that enables society to function are not the problem. That cannot be emphasized enough.

[moneymaker]

[quote=paramount]The real crash hasn’t happened yet; although the 1%ers in CV/RSF and other wealthy coastal areas will not be impacted like the remaining 99%.

How long can the feds keep the rates at 0%?[/quote]

As long as the Chinese don’t go spending dollars wildly and as long as our T-bills/bonds aren’t downgraded.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=moneymaker][quote=paramount]The real crash hasn’t happened yet; although the 1%ers in CV/RSF and other wealthy coastal areas will not be impacted like the remaining 99%.

How long can the feds keep the rates at 0%?[/quote]

As long as the Chinese don’t go spending dollars wildly and as long as our T-bills/bonds aren’t downgraded.[/quote]

Exactly! In other words…..it can go on for a while….. No one knows when the music will stop. Just make sure you have a seat if/when the music stops.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=earlyretirement]Yep. You can’t keep printing endless supplies of money with NO consequences. It can last for a little while but there WILL be a day of reckoning and you just have to be prepared for it.[/quote]

There will be a day of reckoning. The real quesiotn is how long until that day comes and will it matter to me.

Consider the Japan example…
Suppose you were a bright, intelligent 45-year-old, there when their interest rate dropped below 1%. You know that Japan can’t keep the rate near zero forever, so you start positioning for the eventually consequences.

Rates dropped below 1% in Japan in 1995.

That person that was 45-years old when rates dropped below 1% is still waiting … and they are now age 62. They would have spend nearly the second half of their career in a less than 1% interest rate climate.

SO, while I believe that one should have some hedges against scenarios where rates turn around, inflation runs rampant, one should also be prepared for those things to not happen in a time-scale of their productive lifetime.

[CA renter]

Very true, FSD.

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