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July 26, 2008 at 9:24 PM #247786July 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM #248226carlsbadworkerParticipant
SD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.July 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM #248383carlsbadworkerParticipantSD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.July 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM #248386carlsbadworkerParticipantSD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.July 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM #248445carlsbadworkerParticipantSD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.July 28, 2008 at 12:42 PM #248454carlsbadworkerParticipantSD Realtor, here is the reasoning behind my prognostication:
1. I see steep price drop highly correlated with the amount of foreclosure homes in the market (as banks always cut price relentlessly). We have a spike in foreclosure activities in earlier this year, that is when we see 3%+ price drop each month in SD real estate price.
2. In May-June, we reached a psychological threshold of 30% price drop from the peak, as a result, we see a lot of “investors” jump in but I believe at the same time we should be seeing people walking away from their houses since they are under water so much.
3. It takes 5 months for homeowner to stop payment and the NOD are being filed against them, then 1-4 months for the house to go into foreclosure pool. That is why I think toward the end of the year, we will see 3%+ price drop every single month all over again.July 28, 2008 at 1:43 PM #248246(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
July 28, 2008 at 1:43 PM #248403(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
July 28, 2008 at 1:43 PM #248405(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
July 28, 2008 at 1:43 PM #248466(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
July 28, 2008 at 1:43 PM #248474(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantSo I’m seriously thinking of jumping in and buying a condo. Am I crazy to do this within the next 6 months?
It depends on the specifics. Would the unit provide positive after-tax cash flow, assuming reasonable expenses ?
If the answer is yes, then you are not crazy.
July 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM #248262eyePodParticipantOK, I will state the obvious. FLPSanDiego, you do not provide any detail as to why you want to buy. What is your motivation, personal situation, criteria for deciding, etc?
July 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM #248418eyePodParticipantOK, I will state the obvious. FLPSanDiego, you do not provide any detail as to why you want to buy. What is your motivation, personal situation, criteria for deciding, etc?
July 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM #248420eyePodParticipantOK, I will state the obvious. FLPSanDiego, you do not provide any detail as to why you want to buy. What is your motivation, personal situation, criteria for deciding, etc?
July 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM #248481eyePodParticipantOK, I will state the obvious. FLPSanDiego, you do not provide any detail as to why you want to buy. What is your motivation, personal situation, criteria for deciding, etc?
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