Should we buy now?

[SD Realtor]

I think I need to clarify my statement. The take a break was not meant to imply that if you take a break, the market will slow down for you. It is simply a statement that I tell alot of people who become frustrated with the market. The bottom line is that the market doesn’t come to you, you need to go to the market. If you cannot tolerate that and are getting overly frustrated, then why spend all that precious time wasting it seeing homes you will not pay for and refuse to bid on? Can’t that time be better spent doing something else?

If you think that the market is gonna turn sour in an election year then I would suggest that you rethink things. Additionally it has been pointed out that San Diego is not like the rest of the USA. There is a limited supply of newer quality homes, there is a limited supply of more desireable zip codes and school districts, and there are a hell of alot of tech jobs and people who make alot of money.

I am not saying you should overpay for something but in no way do I believe things are going to reverse field in the near future. Now if you have a few years to kill and can wait until interest rates catch up to our unsustainable debt load, well then things MAY change.

[sdrealtor]

Much better advice and he’s in the Bay Area so multiply times 10

[outtamojo]

[quote=sdrealtor]Much better advice and he’s in the Bay Area so multiply times 10[/quote]

This is what he will deal need to deal with
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/san-francisco-rents-on-tear.html

[bearishgurl]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=sdrealtor]Much better advice and he’s in the Bay Area so multiply times 10[/quote]

This is what he will deal need to deal with
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/san-francisco-rents-on-tear.html
[/quote]

Good L@rd, outtamojo! That seems to be unbelievably tight housing conditions!

I’m glad my kids have had very long-term rentals where they get along well with their landlord! And they’re not “lackluster digs,” either. They are very spacious and one is very high on a hill with about a 270-degree view!

I certainly wouldn’t wanna be a “newcomer” to SF about right now!

[bearishgurl]

by CalculatedRisk on 4/25/2012 08:35:00 PM

From the San Francisco Chronicle: S.F. rental market on a tear

…San Francisco rental-home owners and brokers say they are being deluged with applicants for apartments that would have barely gotten a nibble a year or two ago. Some property managers say they are boosting rental prices by 30% to 40% when units turn over…

The really sad thing is, most of these SF apt “owners” are either pre-April ’78 original owners or “inherited” the bldg from a parent. You guessed it, these enterprising LL’s are protected by “Prop 13.”

[sdrealtor]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=sdrealtor]Much better advice and he’s in the Bay Area so multiply times 10[/quote]

This is what he will deal need to deal with
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/san-francisco-rents-on-tear.html%5B/quote%5D

When I was on my train to Seattle I met a young gal who was an attorney living in London. She had a rent controlled apartment in SF that she had for many years. It was so cheap she said she kept it even though she hadnt lived in SF in over 5 years. I think she subleased it from time to time but she said she would never give it up. SF housing is a whole nother animal.

[CA renter]

[quote=AN][quote=CA renter]If the country (and world economy) wasn’t in such dire straits, interest rates wouldn’t be this low and investors would have more (and better?) investment opportunities that might not be at all related to tech. Nobody knows what it would look like, but I don’t think we’d be seeing these valuations in tech if the economy were better and interest rates were normalized. I could easily be wrong, though.

I prefer to think of myself as an optimistic realist. ;)[/quote]
Do you remember 98-2000? Interest rates were higher and economy was booming. So, you’re right, we won’t be seeing these valuations in tech, we’d be seeing MUCH MUCH higher valuation. Try taking the P/E ratio of tech companies in 2000 and apply it to today’s earning. Let me know what Apple’s market cap would be?[/quote]

The reason prices were so high back then was because the “publicly available interent” was a new market with unknown potential. The coincident advent of electronic trading enabled newly-minted “day traders” to bid stocks up to incredibly high valuations. It was an unusual and unique environment that enabled and encouraged a massive stock/tech bubble. Those conditions aren’t there now, which leads me to believe that the current stock market/asset price/tech bubbles are very much related to the manipulations in the credit markets — the credit bubble is still very much alive.

[sdrealtor]

Synopsis: It was different that time. Its different again this time……Really???

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Synopsis: It was different that time. Its different again this time……Really???[/quote]
Yes it is. Now, it’s web 2.0 and it’s different this time too. You know, with all those eye balls on these websites. That’s why Instagram got bought out for $1B. Blew out all the .com from the 90s.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Synopsis: It was different that time. Its different again this time……Really???[/quote]

Yes, really.

You do realize that YOU are claiming it’s different this time, too, right? You’re claiming that it’s naive to call it a bubble when stock prices are far above what is justified by fundamental analysis. What makes it “not a bubble” this time?

[scaredyclassic]

You cannot step into the same stream twice.

Epictetus?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]Synopsis: It was different that time. Its different again this time……Really???[/quote]

Yes, really.

You do realize that YOU are claiming it’s different this time, too, right? You’re claiming that it’s naive to call it a bubble when stock prices are far above what is justified by fundamental analysis. What makes it “not a bubble” this time?[/quote]

Wrong, I am not claiming its different this time or not a bubble. Its the same, its a bubble again and its not the last. They will just keep coming. There is always the latest and greatest thing coming. Ask PT Barnum.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Finding bubble articles about the dot com and Silicon Valley is such easy fodder. Problem is the area has been one tech boom after another for the last 40+ years and its not about to change anytime soon. [/quote]

Of course that’s logical.

But I once found an article about the great depression.

It serves as indisputable proof that capitalism has never created any value for anyone, the US has never experienced any economic growth, and that all technology has been developed by the government (only Europe, because they are socialist, has ever had a functioning economy.)

It’s a FACT because I found an article on the internet that sorta implies all of this.

The forward PE ratio of AAPL is 11. Overvalued maybe, but hardly a bubble.

Bubbles come and go, but the long term trend is always up. As long as our government doesn’t turn into North Korea (aren’t they socialist, btw?) people will always wake up in the morning ready to work hard and create more. It’s an unstoppable force.

[scaredyclassic]

Should people buy now? A young lawyer was asking my opinion. I found myself saying–choke– that now might be a good time to buy.

I couldn’t believe the words coming out of my mouth.

Talking about low interest rates. Fixing long term payments. I was like some real estate shill.

But I also said it’s probably ok to wait a bit get more money together and shop around.

[scaredyclassic]

My actual opinion is not as hesitant. I think it’s a good time to buy a house in temecula.

[Author]

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