short sale in encinitas ranch – good value?

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[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

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