Shiller on housing: Using the D word

[sdrealtor]

Enough with the 50% drop callers. Look at esmith’s January HPI which anecdotally makes sense with what I see along the coast regarding values.

His graph shows prices are about 70 to 80% above pre-bubble pricing in most parts of the county. A drop of 50% would put prices well below pre-bubble prices on a nominal basis. Factor in wage increases (which JWM and ex-SD do so often) of easily 20 to 30% in the nicer areas among professionals and a 25% decline from here looks like alot to expect.

Throw in lower interest rates and affordability is only about 30% above the pre-bubble prices adjusted for interest rates. Factor in the rise in wages and we are already pretty close. Sorry folks but I just dont see much more than 20% downside from here.

Sure you may get more than that in Da’ Hood but do you really want to live in Da’ Hood?

If you really want a nice home, get your ass off the computer, work harder, start a business and make more money. Dont expect life to hand it to you on a silver platter.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

It’s called Reversion to Mean Sd realtor. It typically overshoots. Second of all, you really have no idea how serious this situation is in the financial system of this country.

You are sounding very desperate to convince people that the damage is not going to be that bad. A year ago you didn’t think it would be as bad as it is now.

Who turned out to be right???

It wasn’t you.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

It’s called Reversion to Mean Sd realtor. It typically overshoots. Second of all, you really have no idea how serious this situation is in the financial system of this country.

You are sounding very desperate to convince people that the damage is not going to be that bad. A year ago you didn’t think it would be as bad as it is now.

Who turned out to be right???

It wasn’t you.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

It’s called Reversion to Mean Sd realtor. It typically overshoots. Second of all, you really have no idea how serious this situation is in the financial system of this country.

You are sounding very desperate to convince people that the damage is not going to be that bad. A year ago you didn’t think it would be as bad as it is now.

Who turned out to be right???

It wasn’t you.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

It’s called Reversion to Mean Sd realtor. It typically overshoots. Second of all, you really have no idea how serious this situation is in the financial system of this country.

You are sounding very desperate to convince people that the damage is not going to be that bad. A year ago you didn’t think it would be as bad as it is now.

Who turned out to be right???

It wasn’t you.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

It’s called Reversion to Mean Sd realtor. It typically overshoots. Second of all, you really have no idea how serious this situation is in the financial system of this country.

You are sounding very desperate to convince people that the damage is not going to be that bad. A year ago you didn’t think it would be as bad as it is now.

Who turned out to be right???

It wasn’t you.

[Aecetia]

SDR-

I don’t know if you noticed the article in the UT by Lew Sichelman or not, but it mentioned a program developed during the depression called the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. (HOLC). Do you think if the slump continues the Feds. will try something similar to save the economy? To quote the article, “Back then, about half of all mortgage debt was in default. Unemployment had reached 25%, thousands of banks and savings and loans had failed and annual mortgage lending had fallen by some 80%.” So we are not even close to those times currently, but we were not in a war in the 30’s either…. Just curious as to what an expert thinks will happen to speed the recovery. Thanks.

[Aecetia]

SDR-

I don’t know if you noticed the article in the UT by Lew Sichelman or not, but it mentioned a program developed during the depression called the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. (HOLC). Do you think if the slump continues the Feds. will try something similar to save the economy? To quote the article, “Back then, about half of all mortgage debt was in default. Unemployment had reached 25%, thousands of banks and savings and loans had failed and annual mortgage lending had fallen by some 80%.” So we are not even close to those times currently, but we were not in a war in the 30’s either…. Just curious as to what an expert thinks will happen to speed the recovery. Thanks.

[Aecetia]

SDR-

I don’t know if you noticed the article in the UT by Lew Sichelman or not, but it mentioned a program developed during the depression called the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. (HOLC). Do you think if the slump continues the Feds. will try something similar to save the economy? To quote the article, “Back then, about half of all mortgage debt was in default. Unemployment had reached 25%, thousands of banks and savings and loans had failed and annual mortgage lending had fallen by some 80%.” So we are not even close to those times currently, but we were not in a war in the 30’s either…. Just curious as to what an expert thinks will happen to speed the recovery. Thanks.

[Aecetia]

SDR-

I don’t know if you noticed the article in the UT by Lew Sichelman or not, but it mentioned a program developed during the depression called the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. (HOLC). Do you think if the slump continues the Feds. will try something similar to save the economy? To quote the article, “Back then, about half of all mortgage debt was in default. Unemployment had reached 25%, thousands of banks and savings and loans had failed and annual mortgage lending had fallen by some 80%.” So we are not even close to those times currently, but we were not in a war in the 30’s either…. Just curious as to what an expert thinks will happen to speed the recovery. Thanks.

[Aecetia]

SDR-

I don’t know if you noticed the article in the UT by Lew Sichelman or not, but it mentioned a program developed during the depression called the Home Owners’ Loan Corp. (HOLC). Do you think if the slump continues the Feds. will try something similar to save the economy? To quote the article, “Back then, about half of all mortgage debt was in default. Unemployment had reached 25%, thousands of banks and savings and loans had failed and annual mortgage lending had fallen by some 80%.” So we are not even close to those times currently, but we were not in a war in the 30’s either…. Just curious as to what an expert thinks will happen to speed the recovery. Thanks.

[sdrealtor]

To the contrary JWM, I was spot on. I called to 5 to 10% decline in my market (North County Coastal which is all I am really qualified to comment on) with a bias toward the high side and most of the decline coming between September and December. Its all there in the archives for you to verify and I said this many times.

As for sounding desparate, it is you who sounds desparate. I’m locked into a home my family loves with a mortgage 1X my annual income (most of which does not come from RE but rather very recession proof sectors). I could pay it off if I wanted to today. A crash would benefit me more than you as it would allow me to pick up the 5 to 10 prime investment properties I am hoping to accumulate over the next 15 to 20 years.

As for how bad this is, I have every idea of how serious the situation is and it is exactly for that reason that I prepared my household for this beginning in 2002.

[sdrealtor]

To the contrary JWM, I was spot on. I called to 5 to 10% decline in my market (North County Coastal which is all I am really qualified to comment on) with a bias toward the high side and most of the decline coming between September and December. Its all there in the archives for you to verify and I said this many times.

As for sounding desparate, it is you who sounds desparate. I’m locked into a home my family loves with a mortgage 1X my annual income (most of which does not come from RE but rather very recession proof sectors). I could pay it off if I wanted to today. A crash would benefit me more than you as it would allow me to pick up the 5 to 10 prime investment properties I am hoping to accumulate over the next 15 to 20 years.

As for how bad this is, I have every idea of how serious the situation is and it is exactly for that reason that I prepared my household for this beginning in 2002.

[sdrealtor]

To the contrary JWM, I was spot on. I called to 5 to 10% decline in my market (North County Coastal which is all I am really qualified to comment on) with a bias toward the high side and most of the decline coming between September and December. Its all there in the archives for you to verify and I said this many times.

As for sounding desparate, it is you who sounds desparate. I’m locked into a home my family loves with a mortgage 1X my annual income (most of which does not come from RE but rather very recession proof sectors). I could pay it off if I wanted to today. A crash would benefit me more than you as it would allow me to pick up the 5 to 10 prime investment properties I am hoping to accumulate over the next 15 to 20 years.

As for how bad this is, I have every idea of how serious the situation is and it is exactly for that reason that I prepared my household for this beginning in 2002.

[sdrealtor]

To the contrary JWM, I was spot on. I called to 5 to 10% decline in my market (North County Coastal which is all I am really qualified to comment on) with a bias toward the high side and most of the decline coming between September and December. Its all there in the archives for you to verify and I said this many times.

As for sounding desparate, it is you who sounds desparate. I’m locked into a home my family loves with a mortgage 1X my annual income (most of which does not come from RE but rather very recession proof sectors). I could pay it off if I wanted to today. A crash would benefit me more than you as it would allow me to pick up the 5 to 10 prime investment properties I am hoping to accumulate over the next 15 to 20 years.

As for how bad this is, I have every idea of how serious the situation is and it is exactly for that reason that I prepared my household for this beginning in 2002.

[Author]

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