Shadow Tsunami =Shadow Tsunami of renters?

[urbanrealtor]

Eventually all those housing units will sell but in the meantime, anything repo’d will be empty for a while. That will decrease the gross effective supply from where it might otherwise have been.
Whether that translates into effective demand is another matter. If the economy is bad enough, habitation density might increase rapidly (like during the depression). If this were followed by an expansion, there would then be a demand crisis (this is why many houses in North Park have apartments added in the back yard in the mid to late 1940’s).

It really comes down to an issue of the tension between the timing of the housing market and the timing of the broader economy.

The irony of course is that housing has gotten so bloated in the last 50 years that it is now a cause and an effect. (eg: housing drops because of job loss which lowers broader net worth which slows business which causes job losses)
Most recent history (like the last century) does not look quite this circular. And it really is something that could lead to much broader and deeper poverty and political instability (which would also slow the economy). Fun times.

[pemeliza]

“The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.”

It is funny Nor because I have been thinking the same thing for some time now.

The problem with the “stability” thesis is that the “underwater” owners that are still holding on are going to jump one way or another depending on economic news over the next couple of months. If the economy takes another leg down look out below. This whole housing “recovery” seems very very fragile right now. The only thing that is going to keep these owners from walking is if they are convinced that the housing recovery of the last 10 months or so is going to continue.

[pemeliza]

“The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.”

It is funny Nor because I have been thinking the same thing for some time now.

The problem with the “stability” thesis is that the “underwater” owners that are still holding on are going to jump one way or another depending on economic news over the next couple of months. If the economy takes another leg down look out below. This whole housing “recovery” seems very very fragile right now. The only thing that is going to keep these owners from walking is if they are convinced that the housing recovery of the last 10 months or so is going to continue.

[pemeliza]

“The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.”

It is funny Nor because I have been thinking the same thing for some time now.

The problem with the “stability” thesis is that the “underwater” owners that are still holding on are going to jump one way or another depending on economic news over the next couple of months. If the economy takes another leg down look out below. This whole housing “recovery” seems very very fragile right now. The only thing that is going to keep these owners from walking is if they are convinced that the housing recovery of the last 10 months or so is going to continue.

[pemeliza]

“The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.”

It is funny Nor because I have been thinking the same thing for some time now.

The problem with the “stability” thesis is that the “underwater” owners that are still holding on are going to jump one way or another depending on economic news over the next couple of months. If the economy takes another leg down look out below. This whole housing “recovery” seems very very fragile right now. The only thing that is going to keep these owners from walking is if they are convinced that the housing recovery of the last 10 months or so is going to continue.

[pemeliza]

“The only thing I think is not on the table is stability.”

It is funny Nor because I have been thinking the same thing for some time now.

The problem with the “stability” thesis is that the “underwater” owners that are still holding on are going to jump one way or another depending on economic news over the next couple of months. If the economy takes another leg down look out below. This whole housing “recovery” seems very very fragile right now. The only thing that is going to keep these owners from walking is if they are convinced that the housing recovery of the last 10 months or so is going to continue.

[peterb]

If you consider the U-6 level for unemployment in CA to be somewhere in the area of 20%. Then we’re in a range that’s new ground. This will probably mean higher density in rentals, people leaving the area and homes remaining empty after ejecting the occupants. All in all, probably not putting upward pressure on the price of housing in general.

[peterb]

If you consider the U-6 level for unemployment in CA to be somewhere in the area of 20%. Then we’re in a range that’s new ground. This will probably mean higher density in rentals, people leaving the area and homes remaining empty after ejecting the occupants. All in all, probably not putting upward pressure on the price of housing in general.

[peterb]

If you consider the U-6 level for unemployment in CA to be somewhere in the area of 20%. Then we’re in a range that’s new ground. This will probably mean higher density in rentals, people leaving the area and homes remaining empty after ejecting the occupants. All in all, probably not putting upward pressure on the price of housing in general.

[peterb]

If you consider the U-6 level for unemployment in CA to be somewhere in the area of 20%. Then we’re in a range that’s new ground. This will probably mean higher density in rentals, people leaving the area and homes remaining empty after ejecting the occupants. All in all, probably not putting upward pressure on the price of housing in general.

[peterb]

If you consider the U-6 level for unemployment in CA to be somewhere in the area of 20%. Then we’re in a range that’s new ground. This will probably mean higher density in rentals, people leaving the area and homes remaining empty after ejecting the occupants. All in all, probably not putting upward pressure on the price of housing in general.

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