Sequestration and the housing market.

[SD Realtor]

Damn it FLU…

[sdduuuude]

[quote=paramount]It goes without saying that the housing market is heavily manipulated, and I tend to agree with shoveler – I think an event horizon is definitely approaching.

Some type of Lehman~ish shock event.
[/quote]

I feel the same thing, but “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Because of this, I have found, that very smart people are often quite early with their predictions. They see the inevitable and logical conclusion coming sooner than anyone else, but the market takes its time getting there.

Plus, the timing of such event horizons are very difficult to predict, especially with so much energy focused on preventing it.

Look at Europe. The doomsday was supposed to happen two or three years ago. It is still a mess, but the event horizon has been pushed off and pushed off and pushed off. That could still be pushed off for many more. The US, as debt-ridden as it is, is not even as far along as Europe was three years ago. Japan – been going along for 25 years now in their own economic funk. 25 years. Not even worth planning.

Some say the future holds massive inflation like Zimbabwe. Some say deflation like Japan. Well, if it isn’t clear which it is, can an event horizon really be that close ?

As for me, I’m pretty much in a position where I have to buy a move-up house this year. As such, my predictions will always be to the wish-ful thinking bearish side, even though the inventory situation indicates otherwise 🙂

I’m not religious but I pray for inventory every day.

[sdduuuude]

Actually, my new prediction is – your event horizon will hit the day after I close escrow.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdduuuude]Actually, my new prediction is – your event horizon will hit the day after I close escrow.[/quote]

Got $3.5 million lying around?

http://www.loopnet.com/xNet/MainSite/Listing/Profile/Profile.aspx?LID=17977634&SRID=3098961799&StepID=101

[bearishgurl]

[quote-sdduuuude]As for me, I’m pretty much in a position where I have to buy a move-up house this year. As such, my predictions will always be to the wish-ful thinking bearish side, even though the inventory situation indicates otherwise 🙂

I’m not religious but I pray for inventory every day.[/quote]

sdduuuude, I want to draw your attn to your recent update to your thread of 2 mos ago:

[quote=sdduuuude]An update for you. Wanted to get this done before the MASSIVE onrush of inventory that is coming to CV after the Super Bowl !!!!

62 homes for sale in 92130. 61 of them short.
< $1M. 16 for sale. 2 short. > $1M. 46 for sale. No short sales.

Grrr. Down from 81 in late Nov.

I’m going to change my stats from 92130 to Carmel Valley Middle School. Redfin boundary isn’t quit right, but it’ll have to do. This cuts out a bunch of $2-million+ homes just south of San Dieguito road and an awkward section of 92130 that is in the Poway District.

44 homes for sale in CVMS area. 2 of those are short.
< $1M. 16 for sale. 2 short. > $1M. 28 for sale. No short sales.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/nov_1_short_sale_rule_change#comment-226053

http://piggington.com/nov_1_short_sale_rule_change

I take it you meant two short sales instead of 61 short sales?

sdduuuude, if the (SFR?) inventory in CarmelV is now 62 (down from 81 in November), what are you waiting for? If 60 of these properties are now “available” (not “contingent” with deadbeat “owners” to possibly strip them and lender(s) who will play games with YOU, a prospective buyer), I’m simply not understanding why 60 is not enough inventory to choose from which to make offers.

This is astounding to me and is the main point I was trying to make here:

http://piggington.com/san_diego_inventory_sucks

You’ve been “looking” in this area for months or even years, no? If CarmelV is where you really want to be and you have the ability to move there, you should make it happen, forthwith, IMHO.

It’s not going to get any better than this, sdduuuude. And no, I am not a RE bull but I am fully cognizant of how the SD RE market and mortgage market works and consider myself a “realist.”

If it’s okay with you to “miss the boat,” far be it from me to judge. I’m sure you’re aware that you still have several (public) school choices (even without a CHOICE or zone transfer) for your kids (twins?):

http://www.sandi.net/site/default.aspx?domainid=4208

http://www.sandi.net/imiddle

http://www.sandi.net/marston

http://www.sandi.net/montgomerymiddle

http://www.sandi.net/taft

I am confident it will all turn out okay for your family whatever you decide 🙂

[sdduuuude]

bg – that was an error. Thanks for noticing it. I fixed it. Only 2 short.

—

Well, ya. an inventory of 1 is enough if it is the right house.

First thing to note – the < $1M filter gets down to 14 homes right off the bat. My personal search results which filter on objective things gets me to 6. Of those 6, I could live in 2 of them. My wife could also live in two of them, with an overlap of 1. The 1 we could both live with is overpriced by $120,000. So, no. 60 (44, actually) is not enough.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdduuuude]bg – that was an error. Thanks for noticing it. I fixed it. Only 2 short.

—

Well, ya. an inventory of 1 is enough if it is the right house.

First thing to note – the < $1M filter gets down to 14 homes right off the bat. My personal search results which filter on objective things gets me to 6. Of those 6, I could live in 2 of them. My wife could also live in two of them. That leaves 1 we could both live with. It is overpriced by $120,000. So, no. 60 (44, actually) is not enough.[/quote] sdduuuude, that's the "pricing" there. Not trying to lecture here (I'm re-e-e-eally not) but what YOU consider to be $120K "overpriced," is just the property that another buyer will not. If you are down to 14 current listings (out of 60) that you can actually afford, that area is still "doable" for you to make a deal in NOW, IMO. But if you and/or your spouse think they can only live in two out of the 14 (which all presumably “meet your filter criteria”), then either make an offer on one of the two, forget your “filter criteria” and have 14 to pick from, find a more affordable area to shop in, or stay put. Based upon your most recent post, it doesn’t sound like CarmelV may be the area for you, IMHO.

Again, not trying to be facetious, but based upon your latest post, just “real.”

I’m not trying to be a “pushy” realtor and am not, in fact, at the present time, a “Realtor.”

It’s NOT going to get much better “after the Super Bowl,” IF any better at all, and may very likely get worse. It doesn’t sound like too many owners in CarmelV are “distressed.” These owners can and most likely will “wait for a better day” to list their properties for sale.

And that “better day” (for sellers in SD County) is still in the near or far future (whichever “theory” one believes in). Even hanging on just a few more months will bring them more $$, IMHO.

sdduuuude, I have a couple of suggestions for you which you may have already heard:

(1) Place a ~lower offer on one or both of those two “short sales” in CarmelV (regardless of condition since you may be able to get the property ~150K below market) and see which one (if any) “bite” first, then rescind your other offer.

(2) Put your current home on the market NOW or ASAP after you ready it for the market. You may be surprised at how much you can now recover from the sale of it. The proceeds from the sale of it may now be enough to get you into a CarmelV property that you and/or your spouse would be “willing to live in” 🙂

[spdrun]

It doesn’t hurt to throw offers at anything you find halfway acceptable. Until it’s accepted by both sides and the bank, it’s no offer at all and can be easily rescinded.

[sdduuuude]

It isn’t $125K overpriced for Clairmont. It is $125K overpriced for CV.

Just because I can do a deal doesn’t mean I should.

[paramount]

One thing this thread demonstrates to me is that many piggs are absolutely out of touch with what’s left of the middle class in SD.

Almost as if SD is the Capital District in the Hunger Games.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=paramount]One thing this thread demonstrates to me is that many piggs are absolutely out of touch with what’s left of the middle class in SD.

Almost as if SD is the Capital District in the Hunger Games.[/quote]

paramount, I’ve always known exactly what “middle class” means in San Diego.

If you’re implying that CarmelV is a “middle class” area, you’ve got it all wrong.

If a person wants to move from a “middle class” area (such as Clairemont SD) to an upper-middle class area (such as CarmelV SD), they are going to have to pay more … sometimes MUCH more for a home. It is very possible that a certain Pigg may be able to fetch $125K more for his property in Clairemont in 2013 than he thinks will be possible … that is, if it is in top condition, is on a good street and has a good lot 🙂

Even though I don’t like mostly two-story gargantuan boxes mostly 6-8 feet from one another with poss HOA/MR, it stands to reason that, for investment purposes, “overpaying” by $125K for a property in CarmelV is highly preferable to “overpaying” by $125K in lower-priced Clairemont.

In a rising market, the act of “overpaying” is very subjective.

But I also realize that it will be a MUCH larger monthly cash outlay to live in CarmelV and can see where said Pigg is coming from.

Some `food for thought’ here:

What is CarmelV Middle really worth in comparison to sdduuuude’s five area school choices (++ CHOICE/VEEP/NCLB or whatever his kids qualify for). What about TPHS vs Madison (or other CHOICE, etc)? Is it really worth twice as much money as what his current home is worth? And what about just 6-7 short years from now, when his kids (twins?) graduate from HS. Do he and his spouse REALLY want to live in a gargantuan soul-less airplane hangar by themselves for which they felt they “overpaid” to get into in 2013? OR, will they make a killing reselling it for ~$500K more??

Or will the Clairemont they left behind be the ~new “happening hood” in 2020?

For a variety of reasons, I personally wouldn’t want to live in CarmelV even if I could afford it 🙂 Even though I haven’t seen it and don’t know where it is, I would probably be happier in sdduuuude’s old house (yes, even if my HS student-kid followed me), but that’s just me :=]

[JerseyGrl]

What prompted you to say “Sequestration appears likely” ?

Sequestration is reality. I work for the Navy as a contractor and at a recent meeting a representative from SPAWAR confirmed furloughs will begin April 1. This will effect government employees (GS). They’ll be furloughed approx 20% (1 day a week).

Here’s what I notice at our base; the government switched from GS employees to contractors some time ago. Most employees now are contractors, and depending on their contract they may or may not be let go.

The GS folks are mostly older and/or Navy retirees who got hired on after retirement. They bought their houses when they were affordable.

Contractors are either very young renters or have young families that live in places like Temecula, Marietta and Escondido.

I don’t see sequestration having an effect on real estate sales in San Diego.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=toots]What prompted you to say “Sequestration appears likely” ?

. . .

I don’t see sequestration having an effect on real estate sales in San Diego.[/quote]

Agree with this, 100%.

[Coronita]

[quote=toots]What prompted you to say “Sequestration appears likely” ?

Sequestration is reality. I work for the Navy as a contractor and at a recent meeting a representative from SPAWAR confirmed furloughs will begin April 1. This will effect government employees (GS). They’ll be furloughed approx 20% (1 day a week).

Here’s what I notice at our base; the government switched from GS employees to contractors some time ago. Most employees now are contractors, and depending on their contract they may or may not be let go.

The GS folks are mostly older and/or Navy retirees who got hired on after retirement. They bought their houses when they were affordable.

Contractors are either very young renters or have young families that live in places like Temecula, Marietta and Escondido.

I don’t see sequestration having an effect on real estate sales in San Diego.[/quote]

Told ya!….Compare that to what I said….Newer defense employees less likely to own…Defense compensation took a nosedive for younger people for some time…Everyone knows that.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdduuuude]Actually, my new prediction is – your event horizon will hit the day after I close escrow.[/quote]

add me into the mix on a primary upgrade, and the entire CarmelV will fall into the ocean.

[Author]

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