SD COUNTY COASTAL AREAS UN-WHACKED

[Duck]

If it’s down 6% that makes it overpriced now? Or did that make it overpriced last year?

Some areas of San Diego county (subprime areas and areas with too much new construction) are taking a much harder hit than 6%. Some areas are seeing sales activity and prices on the rise compared to 2006. Wide sweeping statements like calling a bottom in late Summer 2008 (not sure exactly where that will be the bottom, but I suppose you have it nailed to a particular 2 block area) is just stupid. RE cycles take years to work themselves out.

http://www.late-fall-2018-at-3pm.com

[Anonymous]

Hey, ls, you jerk, WE ARE the police.

And, it’s spelled ‘Detroit.’

Yeah, you’re right: one incident at Harvard Westlake vs. schools locked down regularly for gang on gang fights in L.A. Unified.

[Anonymous]

Hey, ls, you jerk, WE ARE the police.

And, it’s spelled ‘Detroit.’

Yeah, you’re right: one incident at Harvard Westlake vs. schools locked down regularly for gang on gang fights in L.A. Unified.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I was simply pointing out the folly in drawing QUANTITATIVE conclusions from monthly zip code specific stats.

Case-Shiller shows San Diego down 6%. Yes it is. Yes, the trend is still down. The C-S is a more reliable (but a bit lagging) indicator. Most areas are probably down at least 10%. The monthly medians simply have too many wild swings to be a reliable indicator of the QUANTITATIVE change.

Also, for the record, I like what LateSummer2008 is trying to do with the westside meltdown blogspot (note, not cited, just mentioned). This is one of the last areas in SO. Cal where the bubble is bursting and what we are seeing in San Diego is beginning to be seen on the westside.

Correction: I cited the source that LA Times uses, which can be viewed here: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
(I hope DQnews doesn’t banish me from this site) They print stats from various counties from this table in the print edition each week over a period of each month in LA Times. I went straight to the source that LATimes uses, so I should have cited it correctly.

Regarding citing web sources. Many posts include links to web sites. For example, I cited DQ news above. In the past I have cited CNN many times, the Bureau of Labor statistics website and probably http://www.irs.gov. I’m assuming this is OK with the moderator. I actually like the fact that you are focusing on the Westside.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I was simply pointing out the folly in drawing QUANTITATIVE conclusions from monthly zip code specific stats.

Case-Shiller shows San Diego down 6%. Yes it is. Yes, the trend is still down. The C-S is a more reliable (but a bit lagging) indicator. Most areas are probably down at least 10%. The monthly medians simply have too many wild swings to be a reliable indicator of the QUANTITATIVE change.

Also, for the record, I like what LateSummer2008 is trying to do with the westside meltdown blogspot (note, not cited, just mentioned). This is one of the last areas in SO. Cal where the bubble is bursting and what we are seeing in San Diego is beginning to be seen on the westside.

Correction: I cited the source that LA Times uses, which can be viewed here: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
(I hope DQnews doesn’t banish me from this site) They print stats from various counties from this table in the print edition each week over a period of each month in LA Times. I went straight to the source that LATimes uses, so I should have cited it correctly.

Regarding citing web sources. Many posts include links to web sites. For example, I cited DQ news above. In the past I have cited CNN many times, the Bureau of Labor statistics website and probably http://www.irs.gov. I’m assuming this is OK with the moderator. I actually like the fact that you are focusing on the Westside.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot..

I apologize for going directly to the source that LA Times cited, which can be found here : http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

(By the way, I know I am the stupid one, but if you look at this site, you can see the stats that LA Times spreads out over 4 weekly publications up to three weeks early).

If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.

I refuse to judge you and call you names based on a few misguided posts, but how do I know whether I like to hear what you say prior to reading it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

FSD, Obviously Mistaken. The LA Times Information on Sunday (5/27) was for Orange and Ventura County stupid. I believe San Diego County might come out this weekend. We’ll see what the monthly numbers look like then. You really are a friggin Idiot..

I apologize for going directly to the source that LA Times cited, which can be found here : http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

(By the way, I know I am the stupid one, but if you look at this site, you can see the stats that LA Times spreads out over 4 weekly publications up to three weeks early).

If you don’t like to hear what I say, don’t read it. It’s that simple.

I refuse to judge you and call you names based on a few misguided posts, but how do I know whether I like to hear what you say prior to reading it ?

[cyphire]

Hey FSD, et. al. I still think that looking at prices is superficial… It wildly understates the current market. Anyone who buys at these prices (whether 1%, 5%, or 10% under the records) is still buying at the top of a cycle.

Who is buying and who isn’t selling? During the recent craze, any house which could be fixed up went up in price. Didn’t matter if it was near the highway, was on a tiny lot, had a commercial property behind it, etc. Current sales only reflect the houses which ACTUALLY sold. No one is buying a house if it has any flaws, unless it is 20-40% off market. Thus the good houses are selling and the problem properties are not. Public perception is moving to the negative but has not really gotten into the heads of the vast majority. This will excelerate the trend…

Again – don’t look at what prices are, look at inventory, real inventory (the huge number of houses under construction but not on the market) and people moving off the fence to the other side (like myself – sold my house and have been renting for 7 months). The vast majority of the buyers will wait it out.

Another point for exceleration: If you can’t sell your house, you can’t buy a house. Thus the move up, move down market is gone. Beleive it or not, there are still buyers who are buying and then trying to sell their old home. They generally either have the equity to do it, but when their houses will not sell and are empty (I see a lot of them now), they will take a reduced price to move the property.

I’m a numbers guy, but faced with little actual supportable data (the NAR and MLS are data disasters, the gov can’t tell the truth which will panic the market.) I think that we would be better served to look at market dynamics and put numbers on them. For example look at buyer sentiment, look at real inventory and attribute a cost factor and trend factor, interest rates, and time series analysis.

[cyphire]

Hey FSD, et. al. I still think that looking at prices is superficial… It wildly understates the current market. Anyone who buys at these prices (whether 1%, 5%, or 10% under the records) is still buying at the top of a cycle.

Who is buying and who isn’t selling? During the recent craze, any house which could be fixed up went up in price. Didn’t matter if it was near the highway, was on a tiny lot, had a commercial property behind it, etc. Current sales only reflect the houses which ACTUALLY sold. No one is buying a house if it has any flaws, unless it is 20-40% off market. Thus the good houses are selling and the problem properties are not. Public perception is moving to the negative but has not really gotten into the heads of the vast majority. This will excelerate the trend…

Again – don’t look at what prices are, look at inventory, real inventory (the huge number of houses under construction but not on the market) and people moving off the fence to the other side (like myself – sold my house and have been renting for 7 months). The vast majority of the buyers will wait it out.

Another point for exceleration: If you can’t sell your house, you can’t buy a house. Thus the move up, move down market is gone. Beleive it or not, there are still buyers who are buying and then trying to sell their old home. They generally either have the equity to do it, but when their houses will not sell and are empty (I see a lot of them now), they will take a reduced price to move the property.

I’m a numbers guy, but faced with little actual supportable data (the NAR and MLS are data disasters, the gov can’t tell the truth which will panic the market.) I think that we would be better served to look at market dynamics and put numbers on them. For example look at buyer sentiment, look at real inventory and attribute a cost factor and trend factor, interest rates, and time series analysis.

[barnaby33]

I think most of us would love to look at things like buyer sentiment. How though can you guage it? Mortgage application volume is the one way I know of, but it is a superset of those who are really serious. Are there others?

As to market dynamics, thats mostly what this site and others focus on. Can you provide some thoughts on areas we haven’t explored?

Josh

[barnaby33]

I think most of us would love to look at things like buyer sentiment. How though can you guage it? Mortgage application volume is the one way I know of, but it is a superset of those who are really serious. Are there others?

As to market dynamics, thats mostly what this site and others focus on. Can you provide some thoughts on areas we haven’t explored?

Josh

[sdduuuude]

I hear powayseller will return to this forum in latesummer2008 .

[sdduuuude]

I hear powayseller will return to this forum in latesummer2008 .

[Anonymous]

Josh, you might have to go to — gosh, forbid — ps, with her highly-touted, regular get-togethers with her realtor friends.

For what it’s worth, I think that sentiment is overrated. Example: consumer confidence and actual consumption often diverge.

Objectively, the last downturn-moving-to-upturn happened only after wherewithal to pay (employment) was moving up and downward pricing pressure (NODs) was coming off (going down). With those two things in place, once sales started increasing for a few months, prices started moving up.

We’ve got a long way to go before those three factors (employment, NODs, and sales) are moving in the right direction, pushing prices up.

[Anonymous]

Josh, you might have to go to — gosh, forbid — ps, with her highly-touted, regular get-togethers with her realtor friends.

For what it’s worth, I think that sentiment is overrated. Example: consumer confidence and actual consumption often diverge.

Objectively, the last downturn-moving-to-upturn happened only after wherewithal to pay (employment) was moving up and downward pricing pressure (NODs) was coming off (going down). With those two things in place, once sales started increasing for a few months, prices started moving up.

We’ve got a long way to go before those three factors (employment, NODs, and sales) are moving in the right direction, pushing prices up.

[Author]

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