San Diego YOY Inventory now nearly flat.

[ocrenter]

a few days late, but here’s my response to schizo’s concerns:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

[HereWeGo]

oc-
I’ve browsed through the San Diego MLS a bit over the last few days, and I’m seeing quite a few spec-type owners who bought in the early years of the decade looking to cash out. You might want to keep an eye out for that phenomenon. If owners start to buy into the idea that “there’s no sign of a bottom,” as many national commentators have suggested, then the cash-out/trade down mindset might take hold. If that happens, look out below.

[HereWeGo]

oc-
I’ve browsed through the San Diego MLS a bit over the last few days, and I’m seeing quite a few spec-type owners who bought in the early years of the decade looking to cash out. You might want to keep an eye out for that phenomenon. If owners start to buy into the idea that “there’s no sign of a bottom,” as many national commentators have suggested, then the cash-out/trade down mindset might take hold. If that happens, look out below.

[HereWeGo]

oc-
I’ve browsed through the San Diego MLS a bit over the last few days, and I’m seeing quite a few spec-type owners who bought in the early years of the decade looking to cash out. You might want to keep an eye out for that phenomenon. If owners start to buy into the idea that “there’s no sign of a bottom,” as many national commentators have suggested, then the cash-out/trade down mindset might take hold. If that happens, look out below.

[HereWeGo]

oc-
I’ve browsed through the San Diego MLS a bit over the last few days, and I’m seeing quite a few spec-type owners who bought in the early years of the decade looking to cash out. You might want to keep an eye out for that phenomenon. If owners start to buy into the idea that “there’s no sign of a bottom,” as many national commentators have suggested, then the cash-out/trade down mindset might take hold. If that happens, look out below.

[HereWeGo]

oc-
I’ve browsed through the San Diego MLS a bit over the last few days, and I’m seeing quite a few spec-type owners who bought in the early years of the decade looking to cash out. You might want to keep an eye out for that phenomenon. If owners start to buy into the idea that “there’s no sign of a bottom,” as many national commentators have suggested, then the cash-out/trade down mindset might take hold. If that happens, look out below.

[LA_Renter]

Good work OC.

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

So people are going to live free for a while then walk. The current psychology indicates it is utterly futile to list right now (why bother), so inventory is not giving a true snap shot of the distress. It makes you wonder if an area does see an uptick in activity then you will see these distressed properties go onto the MLS increasing supply and then ultimately depressing prices, rinse…repeat until the market eventually clears.

[LA_Renter]

Good work OC.

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

So people are going to live free for a while then walk. The current psychology indicates it is utterly futile to list right now (why bother), so inventory is not giving a true snap shot of the distress. It makes you wonder if an area does see an uptick in activity then you will see these distressed properties go onto the MLS increasing supply and then ultimately depressing prices, rinse…repeat until the market eventually clears.

[LA_Renter]

Good work OC.

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

So people are going to live free for a while then walk. The current psychology indicates it is utterly futile to list right now (why bother), so inventory is not giving a true snap shot of the distress. It makes you wonder if an area does see an uptick in activity then you will see these distressed properties go onto the MLS increasing supply and then ultimately depressing prices, rinse…repeat until the market eventually clears.

[LA_Renter]

Good work OC.

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

So people are going to live free for a while then walk. The current psychology indicates it is utterly futile to list right now (why bother), so inventory is not giving a true snap shot of the distress. It makes you wonder if an area does see an uptick in activity then you will see these distressed properties go onto the MLS increasing supply and then ultimately depressing prices, rinse…repeat until the market eventually clears.

[LA_Renter]

Good work OC.

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

So people are going to live free for a while then walk. The current psychology indicates it is utterly futile to list right now (why bother), so inventory is not giving a true snap shot of the distress. It makes you wonder if an area does see an uptick in activity then you will see these distressed properties go onto the MLS increasing supply and then ultimately depressing prices, rinse…repeat until the market eventually clears.

[Anonymous]

I used to live in a building downtown. There were 23 units on my floor. Since I moved out this is the activity.
1 sold in foreclosure
3 listed and subsequently pulled
3 with active NOD
3 people who told me they will list whent the market recovers
2 Active listings

So on a high level using this floor as an example it looks good one recent sale and two listings. The reality is quite different. There are at least 9 units wanted to be sold and with the NODs pending (as a proxy for unpaid HOA) there might not be banks willing to lend in the building due to the financial status of the HOA.

[Anonymous]

I used to live in a building downtown. There were 23 units on my floor. Since I moved out this is the activity.
1 sold in foreclosure
3 listed and subsequently pulled
3 with active NOD
3 people who told me they will list whent the market recovers
2 Active listings

So on a high level using this floor as an example it looks good one recent sale and two listings. The reality is quite different. There are at least 9 units wanted to be sold and with the NODs pending (as a proxy for unpaid HOA) there might not be banks willing to lend in the building due to the financial status of the HOA.

[Anonymous]

I used to live in a building downtown. There were 23 units on my floor. Since I moved out this is the activity.
1 sold in foreclosure
3 listed and subsequently pulled
3 with active NOD
3 people who told me they will list whent the market recovers
2 Active listings

So on a high level using this floor as an example it looks good one recent sale and two listings. The reality is quite different. There are at least 9 units wanted to be sold and with the NODs pending (as a proxy for unpaid HOA) there might not be banks willing to lend in the building due to the financial status of the HOA.

[Anonymous]

I used to live in a building downtown. There were 23 units on my floor. Since I moved out this is the activity.
1 sold in foreclosure
3 listed and subsequently pulled
3 with active NOD
3 people who told me they will list whent the market recovers
2 Active listings

So on a high level using this floor as an example it looks good one recent sale and two listings. The reality is quite different. There are at least 9 units wanted to be sold and with the NODs pending (as a proxy for unpaid HOA) there might not be banks willing to lend in the building due to the financial status of the HOA.

[Author]

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