Maybe I should have been alittle more frank with my question about does it really matter. Ofcourse it matters how much it goes down. That is why I went on about it alot more. (See my comment in other threads about buying places in Santee for a buck if it were ever possible. I have NO interest in living in Santee, but if it was a buck, id buy 5. Make an inhome bowling alley or an archery range or whatever. The point is the if it over corrects too much, demand will go shooting back up. It wont over correct that much)
My point was rather that worrying about the exact % drop and is now a good time to buy cause itll only go down X% more is attempting to time the market. No one knows how much itll drop. No one knows how long it will last, and no one knows if they will get to keep their job next year or not. It is this uncertaintly that could drop things below basic fundamentals, and being it is totally uncertain, there is no way to accuratly predict what the drop will be. Even you had to give yourself a 5% margine on either side cause you dont know. That is +/- 10% of a 600k house. 60k seems like alot to be off considering it is 20% of your 300k estimation.
I am not trying to doubt you, I kinda think you will be right. My point is that it is even more dangerous for a buyer to “jump” cause they think they know what will happen than it is for them to buy cause they know the “fundamentals arnt far away”.
