San Diego YOY Inventory now nearly flat.

[Mayer]

“is historically unpresidented. ”

yes we would have been better off unpresidented, historicaly speaking.

…funny… 🙂

[PadreBrian]

Bubble Market Tracking blog has this to say about it:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

Basically, squatters are just living in the units without even putting it on the market,m because it’s futile.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble Market Tracking blog has this to say about it:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

Basically, squatters are just living in the units without even putting it on the market,m because it’s futile.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble Market Tracking blog has this to say about it:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

Basically, squatters are just living in the units without even putting it on the market,m because it’s futile.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble Market Tracking blog has this to say about it:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

Basically, squatters are just living in the units without even putting it on the market,m because it’s futile.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble Market Tracking blog has this to say about it:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

Basically, squatters are just living in the units without even putting it on the market,m because it’s futile.

[cr]

I read an article the other day on the rising number of foreclosures in nearly every major market except Philadelphia. It then subtly pointed out Philly has a moratorium on foreclosures.

I think people are starting to realize sitting this bubble out wasn’t such a bad idea. Even if inventories are truly flat and not due to unlisted REOs, with 12 months of it there would have to be 6 months of sales at 2007’s non-recession, yet-to-realize-housing-crashed pace with no new homes listed just to get back to where listing a house is worthwhile.

Look at Rich’s graphs. From March to June each year it started to look like things were picking up until Aug-Oct, when they get slammed, and each year it’s gotten worse. It won’t continue forever like that, but the Padres have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than 2008 not being far worse than 2007.

Yes, I said Padres and Super Bowl.

[cr]

I read an article the other day on the rising number of foreclosures in nearly every major market except Philadelphia. It then subtly pointed out Philly has a moratorium on foreclosures.

I think people are starting to realize sitting this bubble out wasn’t such a bad idea. Even if inventories are truly flat and not due to unlisted REOs, with 12 months of it there would have to be 6 months of sales at 2007’s non-recession, yet-to-realize-housing-crashed pace with no new homes listed just to get back to where listing a house is worthwhile.

Look at Rich’s graphs. From March to June each year it started to look like things were picking up until Aug-Oct, when they get slammed, and each year it’s gotten worse. It won’t continue forever like that, but the Padres have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than 2008 not being far worse than 2007.

Yes, I said Padres and Super Bowl.

[cr]

I read an article the other day on the rising number of foreclosures in nearly every major market except Philadelphia. It then subtly pointed out Philly has a moratorium on foreclosures.

I think people are starting to realize sitting this bubble out wasn’t such a bad idea. Even if inventories are truly flat and not due to unlisted REOs, with 12 months of it there would have to be 6 months of sales at 2007’s non-recession, yet-to-realize-housing-crashed pace with no new homes listed just to get back to where listing a house is worthwhile.

Look at Rich’s graphs. From March to June each year it started to look like things were picking up until Aug-Oct, when they get slammed, and each year it’s gotten worse. It won’t continue forever like that, but the Padres have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than 2008 not being far worse than 2007.

Yes, I said Padres and Super Bowl.

[cr]

I read an article the other day on the rising number of foreclosures in nearly every major market except Philadelphia. It then subtly pointed out Philly has a moratorium on foreclosures.

I think people are starting to realize sitting this bubble out wasn’t such a bad idea. Even if inventories are truly flat and not due to unlisted REOs, with 12 months of it there would have to be 6 months of sales at 2007’s non-recession, yet-to-realize-housing-crashed pace with no new homes listed just to get back to where listing a house is worthwhile.

Look at Rich’s graphs. From March to June each year it started to look like things were picking up until Aug-Oct, when they get slammed, and each year it’s gotten worse. It won’t continue forever like that, but the Padres have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than 2008 not being far worse than 2007.

Yes, I said Padres and Super Bowl.

[cr]

I read an article the other day on the rising number of foreclosures in nearly every major market except Philadelphia. It then subtly pointed out Philly has a moratorium on foreclosures.

I think people are starting to realize sitting this bubble out wasn’t such a bad idea. Even if inventories are truly flat and not due to unlisted REOs, with 12 months of it there would have to be 6 months of sales at 2007’s non-recession, yet-to-realize-housing-crashed pace with no new homes listed just to get back to where listing a house is worthwhile.

Look at Rich’s graphs. From March to June each year it started to look like things were picking up until Aug-Oct, when they get slammed, and each year it’s gotten worse. It won’t continue forever like that, but the Padres have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than 2008 not being far worse than 2007.

Yes, I said Padres and Super Bowl.

[svelte]

So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.

[svelte]

So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.

[svelte]

So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.

[svelte]

So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.

Chickens!!!

I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.

Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.

With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!

It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.

PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.

[Author]

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