- This topic has 210 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 7 months ago by
DWCAP.
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May 1, 2008 at 2:03 PM #197415May 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM #197300
Anonymous
GuestI think you are right to compare where prices will settle relative to rents. I think you are incorrect in assuming rents will rise. Simply said as all these properties reprice and as all the vacant properties get filled rents will stay flat or fall.
That being said, downtown which I know the best has a way to fall. Currently 1 bedroom apts rent for approx $1,500. Which means $150K home price = $1,000 mortgage +$300 HOA + $150 property taxes
Former price for these units $450 – $500 Current price for these units $300K – $350K. I think that means another 50% drop.
May 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM #197333GuestI think you are right to compare where prices will settle relative to rents. I think you are incorrect in assuming rents will rise. Simply said as all these properties reprice and as all the vacant properties get filled rents will stay flat or fall.
That being said, downtown which I know the best has a way to fall. Currently 1 bedroom apts rent for approx $1,500. Which means $150K home price = $1,000 mortgage +$300 HOA + $150 property taxes
Former price for these units $450 – $500 Current price for these units $300K – $350K. I think that means another 50% drop.
May 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM #197357GuestI think you are right to compare where prices will settle relative to rents. I think you are incorrect in assuming rents will rise. Simply said as all these properties reprice and as all the vacant properties get filled rents will stay flat or fall.
That being said, downtown which I know the best has a way to fall. Currently 1 bedroom apts rent for approx $1,500. Which means $150K home price = $1,000 mortgage +$300 HOA + $150 property taxes
Former price for these units $450 – $500 Current price for these units $300K – $350K. I think that means another 50% drop.
May 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM #197381GuestI think you are right to compare where prices will settle relative to rents. I think you are incorrect in assuming rents will rise. Simply said as all these properties reprice and as all the vacant properties get filled rents will stay flat or fall.
That being said, downtown which I know the best has a way to fall. Currently 1 bedroom apts rent for approx $1,500. Which means $150K home price = $1,000 mortgage +$300 HOA + $150 property taxes
Former price for these units $450 – $500 Current price for these units $300K – $350K. I think that means another 50% drop.
May 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM #197420GuestI think you are right to compare where prices will settle relative to rents. I think you are incorrect in assuming rents will rise. Simply said as all these properties reprice and as all the vacant properties get filled rents will stay flat or fall.
That being said, downtown which I know the best has a way to fall. Currently 1 bedroom apts rent for approx $1,500. Which means $150K home price = $1,000 mortgage +$300 HOA + $150 property taxes
Former price for these units $450 – $500 Current price for these units $300K – $350K. I think that means another 50% drop.
May 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM #197313HereWeGo
ParticipantI tend to agree that rents will fall, barring a major bulldozing/arson spree. The supply/demand mismatch is just silly.
May 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM #197348ParticipantI tend to agree that rents will fall, barring a major bulldozing/arson spree. The supply/demand mismatch is just silly.
May 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM #197374ParticipantI tend to agree that rents will fall, barring a major bulldozing/arson spree. The supply/demand mismatch is just silly.
May 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM #197396ParticipantI tend to agree that rents will fall, barring a major bulldozing/arson spree. The supply/demand mismatch is just silly.
May 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM #197435ParticipantI tend to agree that rents will fall, barring a major bulldozing/arson spree. The supply/demand mismatch is just silly.
May 1, 2008 at 3:23 PM #197362(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantSure …
If rents fall, then one should adjust the anticipated price range downward accordingly.Similarly, if interest rates are outside of the range assumed then one would have to adjust price expectations also.
I am not really predicting the future of these parameters, just using current ranges for both in projecting forward.
One thing I learned from this site is that deviations from the long-term trend tend to revert.
Rents have risen roughly in line with inflation for the past three decades. So, real rents may decline (nominal rates lower than inflation) n the near term, but I do not try to outsmart the averages.
May 1, 2008 at 3:23 PM #197400ParticipantSure …
If rents fall, then one should adjust the anticipated price range downward accordingly.Similarly, if interest rates are outside of the range assumed then one would have to adjust price expectations also.
I am not really predicting the future of these parameters, just using current ranges for both in projecting forward.
One thing I learned from this site is that deviations from the long-term trend tend to revert.
Rents have risen roughly in line with inflation for the past three decades. So, real rents may decline (nominal rates lower than inflation) n the near term, but I do not try to outsmart the averages.
May 1, 2008 at 3:23 PM #197423ParticipantSure …
If rents fall, then one should adjust the anticipated price range downward accordingly.Similarly, if interest rates are outside of the range assumed then one would have to adjust price expectations also.
I am not really predicting the future of these parameters, just using current ranges for both in projecting forward.
One thing I learned from this site is that deviations from the long-term trend tend to revert.
Rents have risen roughly in line with inflation for the past three decades. So, real rents may decline (nominal rates lower than inflation) n the near term, but I do not try to outsmart the averages.
May 1, 2008 at 3:23 PM #197446ParticipantSure …
If rents fall, then one should adjust the anticipated price range downward accordingly.Similarly, if interest rates are outside of the range assumed then one would have to adjust price expectations also.
I am not really predicting the future of these parameters, just using current ranges for both in projecting forward.
One thing I learned from this site is that deviations from the long-term trend tend to revert.
Rents have risen roughly in line with inflation for the past three decades. So, real rents may decline (nominal rates lower than inflation) n the near term, but I do not try to outsmart the averages.
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