As far as the seller in Clairemont is concerned, the market is already down 17% and he’s not sold yet — expected to sell at 599k but lowered price to $499k with no takers
Nov 2005 was the high median at 518k. I can’t wait until Nov 2006 to see what the reported YOY decline is. That will be the panic call for many sellers.
$518k (Nov 2005) down to $482k (Aug 2006) is a 7% drop so far.
The one month drop from Jul 2006 ($487k) to Aug 2006 ($482k) was $5000. If we continue dropping $5000 each month, Nov 2006 will be $467k, a 10% drop from Nov 2005. I think SD will see double digit depreciation.
“Although the market has been edging downward, DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the region’s home prices don’t appear to be headed for a steep drop in the near future.”
DataQuick is in the awkward position of attempting to provide accurate data to help people make more objective decisions on RE, but the degree to which the market declines, the value of DQ data declines as well. If nothing is moving, DQ may make less selling data.
So, its predictable that they will spin the market upwards. If they were objective, they wouldn’t spin the data at all, they would merely provide it to customers and let them draw their own conclusions.
This sums up what I’ve been telling people since late 2003, and especially since the summer of 2004 (but many looked at me as if I was nuts). It’s amazing that this clarity comes from someone who is a salesperson, while the so-called “experts” keep sugarcoating trends and spinning factoids. (Of course, we know that many such experts are dancing to the tune their employers play).
Kathy Butler, a longtime real estate agent … says many sellers are having a hard time accepting declining prices. Like Wilkinson, they are “chasing the market down.” By the time they realize their price is too high, the market has fallen further … Butler said real estate agents and sellers should brace themselves for the possibility of a long downward trend. California’s home market tends to run in cycles, she said. “The cycles last for years, not for months.” Butler said. “We need to realistically figure this will go on for a while.”
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