- This topic has 54 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 9 months ago by
markmax33.
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February 13, 2012 at 9:52 AM #737853February 13, 2012 at 9:52 AM #737852
Anonymous
GuestIt will likely be over by March 6, when we will have plenty of big state results (MI, GA, OH, VA)
IL, MD, and possibly TX in early April.
April 24 are PA and NY.
It will definitely be over by then.
February 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM #737855sdrealtor
Participant[quote=walterwhite]Strangely I Actually find myself on agreement with markmax here.
And although I prefer vermin supreme I think Ron Paul has a more realistic chance of winning so I’d vote Ron.
Same reasoning and I thinkits true[/quote]
But it all starts with a single pony, then a small herd which leads to a stampede and then ponies for all!
February 13, 2012 at 11:09 AM #737867markmax33
Guest[quote=SK in CV]
The very definition of dismissive. You think Paul voters haven’t been tricked, but all the others have been. Everyone voting for the other candidates are too stupid to understand, but you think only the Paul voters really understand. That IS dismissing them.
[/quote]Are you denying they aren’t dissmissing themselves in their own exit polls? They clearly show they don’t want to vote for Romney but they are? Are you denying that not staying through caucus to become a delegate isn’t dismissing their own vote? They don’t care enough about the process to even participate? Is that dissmissive of me? I don’t get it?
[quote=SK in CV]
The fact that Republican voters are dissatisfied with their choices applies just as much to Paul as it does the other candidates. I understand that Paul doesn’t get the coverage that other’s do. At least he hasn’t before. But with all the debates, all the decent showings in the caucus states, that’s started to change, and he still doesn’t get the surge that every single other Republican candidate has experienced. Perry had a surge. Cain had a surge. Bachmann had a surge. Gingrich had a surge. Santorum had a surge. Paul moved up 5%. Somehow the Republican voters shifted (at least temporarily) in large numbers to other candidates, but never towards Paul.
[/quote]
Incorrect. The media has never led the people to believe that Ron Paul was a viable candidate. The majority think he’s “unelectable, hit a ceiling and all that other crap the media does. Frank Luntz is that guy’s name I think.This is why the tipping point concept is important. If enough people can convince enough friends and they hear it through a 2nd or 3rd friend, things start to change. The tipping point concept works perfectly in this situation.
[quote=SK in CV]
That’s exactly what I said. There isn’t a single poll showing him leading. Second place is the very best. You didn’t actually provide a link showing him at 21%, but what I said was “on average” the national polls show him at 15%. So the 21% poll is cherry picking an outlier poll.
[/quote]http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSTRE81514720120207
There you go. I meant to include it. You said his cieling was 15%. I’ll bet you anything he ends up well above that.
[quote=SK in CV]
I won’t quibble with you on the press. I agree, though I think his coverage has improved. But as covered before, Republican voters are still not flocking to him. You’re impressed with Paul going from 0% to 21% in 4 years. Both Gingrich and Santorum had a bigger increases in less than 4 weeks.
[/quote]And they dropped significantly in 4 weeks too, except for Santorum who hasn’t really been exposed too much yet. The thing is the Ron Paul support only grows and has never declined. It tells you alot about Paul supporters. They aren’t going anywhere and won’t support another candidate. The GOP is going to be forced with a choice of trying to appease Ron Paul supporters, win or lose.
[quote=SK in CV]
He’s 8% behind Romney in ONE poll. An outlier. Romney has more than 2 1/2 times more support on average. (about 30% to 12%) Check pollster, where they aggregate the polls, and show the average of the various polls. That Ipsos poll, btw, has him 5% higher than any other poll has ever had him. No other national poll has had him higher than 16%.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elections/state/US/?chart=12USPresRepPR&chart_mode=new
[/quote]If 15%-18% is the tipping point, we should expect to see some intersting things in the next few weeks. 16% is right in the middle.
[quote=SK in CV]If he’s reached a tipping point, then the new polls should show it. So far, they haven’t. That 21% poll was a week ago. There have been 5 national polls released since then and they show him with lower support, not higher. If the 6 or 7 national polls that will come out in the next week show him flat, or lower than that 21% then your tipping point theory is dead in the water for now. We’ll see.[/quote]
He’s right about at the tipping point right now. It’s hard to say if he’s past it with 16% overall, but he’s close.
February 13, 2012 at 11:11 AM #737868Guest[quote=pri_dk]It will likely be over by March 6, when we will have plenty of big state results (MI, GA, OH, VA)
IL, MD, and possibly TX in early April.
April 24 are PA and NY.
It will definitely be over by then.[/quote]
Lol, it’s not over if he has 15% of national polls which he will until November. That’s what he needs to continue debating. There is no way he doesn’t run. If he doesn’t run he’ll endorse Gary Johnson and all 15%+ will head over there and Gary is a better speaker and can tweak his message slightly.
February 13, 2012 at 12:26 PM #737875SK in CV
Participant[quote=markmax33]
Lol, it’s not over if he has 15% of national polls which he will until November. That’s what he needs to continue debating. There is no way he doesn’t run. If he doesn’t run he’ll endorse Gary Johnson and all 15%+ will head over there and Gary is a better speaker and can tweak his message slightly.[/quote]I’m trying to remember the last time a guy with 15% support came in anything but 3rd place. Thinking….thinking….oh, i know! NEVER!
Good luck with that 15%.
February 13, 2012 at 2:27 PM #737894Guest[quote=SK in CV][quote=markmax33]
Lol, it’s not over if he has 15% of national polls which he will until November. That’s what he needs to continue debating. There is no way he doesn’t run. If he doesn’t run he’ll endorse Gary Johnson and all 15%+ will head over there and Gary is a better speaker and can tweak his message slightly.[/quote]I’m trying to remember the last time a guy with 15% support came in anything but 3rd place. Thinking….thinking….oh, i know! NEVER!
Good luck with that 15%.[/quote]
15% gets into the debates. Anything can happen from there. If people get pissed off listening to Romney and Obama fighting each other about nothing, then Paul/Johnson can really stick it to them.
February 13, 2012 at 2:56 PM #737900GuestNow he’s running as independent?
February 13, 2012 at 3:22 PM #737906Guest[quote=pri_dk]Now he’s running as independent?[/quote]
He will 100% run as an indepedent, he just can’t admit it. He did the same thing during the last election. Gary Johnson = Ron Paul anyway. One of them is running regardless.
February 13, 2012 at 3:45 PM #737911Guest[quote=markmax33]He will 100% run as an indepedent[/quote]
Running 100% as independent with 15% of the vote means he has 0% chance of winning.
February 13, 2012 at 4:29 PM #737912Guest[quote=pri_dk][quote=markmax33]He will 100% run as an indepedent[/quote]
Running 100% as independent with 15% of the vote means he has 0% chance of winning.[/quote]
Running as an indepedent with aleast 15% to start the debates…smart guy. It doesn’t mean he’ll end with only 15% or only be 15% when he gets there. If he’s 20% going into the debates, he only needs 14% to theoretically win the vote.
February 13, 2012 at 4:39 PM #737913blahblahblah
ParticipantRP is not going to win, but that’s not the story. The story is that his base is full of young, educated, successful, and motivated people who are excited about the message of freedom. They are tired of pointless and never-ending wars of conquest abroad and racially unjust drug wars at home, all paid for by an endless mountain of debt that can never be paid off. They are tired of their tax money being used to ship huge quantities of arms to dangerous criminals in Mexico.
RP’s base is growing very fast, particularly among those under 40. Some of these people will be going into politics. There is one RP today but in ten years there are going to be hundreds of them. Meanwhile the mainstream Republican and Democratic parties have ZERO momentum coming in from the younger generations. Supposed frontrunner Newt Gingrich can’t even get people to show up to his events. Why should young people support these people that have left them utterly screwed? They are not buying the phony left-right BS anymore. IT’S NOT WORKING.
Everyone here likes to make fun of MM33 (even I kid him from time to time) but his enthusiasm is real and very typical of RP’s supporters. Most of us are too “experienced” and “wise” for this sort of thing; we belong to the crusty old generation that will soon fade away from heart disease and cancer. We will sit in our homes by ourselves and giggle at Jon Stewart and Bill Maher on the TV and feel like we’re smarter than everyone else while we shovel processed food into our mouths and silently grow tumors in our GI tracts.
The future belongs to the young.
That’s the real story.
FWIW I am still voting Vermin Supreme because I want my free pony.
February 13, 2012 at 5:06 PM #737914briansd1
Guest[quote=CONCHO]The future belongs to the young.
That’s the real story.
[/quote]
That’s why I say that the GOP has a “demography is destiny” problem.
It will be fun to watch it all unfold in the next few decades.
February 13, 2012 at 5:49 PM #737915scaredyclassic
ParticipantWord.
February 13, 2012 at 9:49 PM #737934Guest[quote=briansd1][quote=CONCHO]The future belongs to the young.
That’s the real story.
[/quote]
That’s why I say that the GOP has a “demography is destiny” problem.
It will be fun to watch it all unfold in the next few decades.[/quote]
Brian – just because the Dems have a charismatic leader at the moment with a devil tongue it doesn’t mean the Paul supporters are coming from there too. I’ve converted many a tree-hugging Obama fan. Both parties still have the system rigged but if they wait too long to put the Paul supporters under through illegal jailing or whatever they will do, they will lose their power.
I’m curious how voter fraud changes over the next 10 years as well. All dictatorships have massive voter fraud or voter coercion to maintain regimes.
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