REFI/10y note relationship

[vizcaya]

I have been pulling my hair out on when I should REFI. I applied for a REFI twice in the last 2 months, and cancelled due to locking in too soon, then to see rates drop.

My question is, is there a way of determining if rates are going up or going down, or staying the same.

For me, I see what the TEN Year Treasury note is doing. (^TNX). It seems to tell me what rates will do the following day. On Tuesday the Ten year dropped about .10, This drop translated into a .25 drop in the 30yr fixed conforming rate on Wed. Today the 10 yr has dropped about .16 as of mid morning on Wed. Therefore I am assuming the 30 yr fixed should drop another .25 percent on Thursday.

Using the graphs at Bankrate.com , I see that in the last 5 years, the 30 year fixed dipped to below 5%, around 2002-2003, the 10 yr at that time had dipped just below 3.2 index value.

Today we are at 3.3 index value.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Fearful]

10 year treasuries are, assuming no dollar devaluation, going to rise as the stock market falls.

Global recession fears will drive, in the short term, movement of cash from U.S. equity markets to U.S. treasuries.

If the U.S. sinks in to recession independently of the rest of the world, that is, Asia and perhaps Europe recover and leave the U.S. behind, funds will leave the U.S., both treasuries and equity markets.

So it seems to me that the current low yields on treasuries are an anomaly – money is being parked in treasuries while global investors figure out what the hell is going on.

Might be a relatively unique opportunity to catch these mortgage rates.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Ozzie]

I couldn’t disagree more. If cash goes to treasuries prices rise and yields go down. Rates are coming down and will continue to fall in the 2008. The equity markets agree which is why Financials have rallied over the last couple days because lower interest rates equal future profits for lenders. The gov’t is going to bailout both the mortgage insurers (their stocks were up 30-70% today alone) and borrowers by forcing mortgage rates down and encouraging re-fi’s. They understand the greatest threat to both the US and world economy is the crumbling housing/mortgage market and they will take action especially in an election year. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Aecetia]

Resistance is futile. Bow down to the Fed.

[Author]

Posts