Recession Started Dec. 2007 – as predicted

[sdduuuude]

When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”

Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.

I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.

If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.

I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.

The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.

It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.

[sdduuuude]

Krugman says

“Meaningful employment recovery may not occur before 2011”

Paul Krugman Says Economy in "Steep Steep Decline"

I think this is significant. Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession.

[sdduuuude]

Krugman says

“Meaningful employment recovery may not occur before 2011”

Paul Krugman Says Economy in "Steep Steep Decline"

I think this is significant. Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession.

[sdduuuude]

Krugman says

“Meaningful employment recovery may not occur before 2011”

Paul Krugman Says Economy in "Steep Steep Decline"

I think this is significant. Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession.

[sdduuuude]

Krugman says

“Meaningful employment recovery may not occur before 2011”

Paul Krugman Says Economy in "Steep Steep Decline"

I think this is significant. Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession.

[sdduuuude]

Krugman says

“Meaningful employment recovery may not occur before 2011”

Paul Krugman Says Economy in "Steep Steep Decline"

I think this is significant. Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude] Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession. [/quote]

Not true. Employment typically recovers after recessions have ended. And in some cases long after the recession ended. The reason is simple: companies do not add staff before seeing an increase in demand for their goods or service.

Recent examples …

Recession of July 1990 to March 1991, but Unemployment rate peaked in 1992.

Early 1980s Recession : January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total. Peak Unemployment 1982.

Recession 1973-1975, Unemployment peaked in 1975.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude] Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession. [/quote]

Not true. Employment typically recovers after recessions have ended. And in some cases long after the recession ended. The reason is simple: companies do not add staff before seeing an increase in demand for their goods or service.

Recent examples …

Recession of July 1990 to March 1991, but Unemployment rate peaked in 1992.

Early 1980s Recession : January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total. Peak Unemployment 1982.

Recession 1973-1975, Unemployment peaked in 1975.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude] Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession. [/quote]

Not true. Employment typically recovers after recessions have ended. And in some cases long after the recession ended. The reason is simple: companies do not add staff before seeing an increase in demand for their goods or service.

Recent examples …

Recession of July 1990 to March 1991, but Unemployment rate peaked in 1992.

Early 1980s Recession : January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total. Peak Unemployment 1982.

Recession 1973-1975, Unemployment peaked in 1975.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude] Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession. [/quote]

Not true. Employment typically recovers after recessions have ended. And in some cases long after the recession ended. The reason is simple: companies do not add staff before seeing an increase in demand for their goods or service.

Recent examples …

Recession of July 1990 to March 1991, but Unemployment rate peaked in 1992.

Early 1980s Recession : January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total. Peak Unemployment 1982.

Recession 1973-1975, Unemployment peaked in 1975.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude] Employment always recovers in the middle or towards the end of a recession. If he’s thinking 2011, that could mean a 4 or 5-year recession. [/quote]

Not true. Employment typically recovers after recessions have ended. And in some cases long after the recession ended. The reason is simple: companies do not add staff before seeing an increase in demand for their goods or service.

Recent examples …

Recession of July 1990 to March 1991, but Unemployment rate peaked in 1992.

Early 1980s Recession : January-July 1980 and July 1981-November 1982: 2 years total. Peak Unemployment 1982.

Recession 1973-1975, Unemployment peaked in 1975.

[sdduuuude]

What I really meant to say was unemployment peaks towards the end of the recession, not recovers. And even that is not quite right.

It appears to peak at the end or after the end of the recession, so I stand corrected.

Here’s a good graph:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R-uijJYooOI/AAAAAAAACso/C2hTWISYHWE/s1600-h/jc032708initurate1967.JPG

So, if this guy says meaningful recovery won’t happen until 2011, that means the unemployment peak could be any time in 2010.

I’m thinking the recession will last 30 months, to end in June 2010.

[sdduuuude]

What I really meant to say was unemployment peaks towards the end of the recession, not recovers. And even that is not quite right.

It appears to peak at the end or after the end of the recession, so I stand corrected.

Here’s a good graph:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R-uijJYooOI/AAAAAAAACso/C2hTWISYHWE/s1600-h/jc032708initurate1967.JPG

So, if this guy says meaningful recovery won’t happen until 2011, that means the unemployment peak could be any time in 2010.

I’m thinking the recession will last 30 months, to end in June 2010.

[sdduuuude]

What I really meant to say was unemployment peaks towards the end of the recession, not recovers. And even that is not quite right.

It appears to peak at the end or after the end of the recession, so I stand corrected.

Here’s a good graph:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R-uijJYooOI/AAAAAAAACso/C2hTWISYHWE/s1600-h/jc032708initurate1967.JPG

So, if this guy says meaningful recovery won’t happen until 2011, that means the unemployment peak could be any time in 2010.

I’m thinking the recession will last 30 months, to end in June 2010.

[sdduuuude]

What I really meant to say was unemployment peaks towards the end of the recession, not recovers. And even that is not quite right.

It appears to peak at the end or after the end of the recession, so I stand corrected.

Here’s a good graph:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/R-uijJYooOI/AAAAAAAACso/C2hTWISYHWE/s1600-h/jc032708initurate1967.JPG

So, if this guy says meaningful recovery won’t happen until 2011, that means the unemployment peak could be any time in 2010.

I’m thinking the recession will last 30 months, to end in June 2010.

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