Recession – here we come!

[gold_dredger_phd]

For those who think that oil will go to $200 per barrel, consider: coal to oil conversion.

This was done on an industrial scale in South Africa during their own oil embargo due to apartheid. There were plants that would do 100,000 barrels per day or more working during that time. You can use high sulfur coal for this since the sulfur can be largely removed during the processing into oil.

This is not a price the United States needs to pay since we have plenty of coal reserves. Let those without coal reserves pay $200 per barrel.

Of course, you may see $200 per barrel just due to devaluation of the dollar. If the dollar is that cheap, then US coal is likely going to be that cheap as well.

When oil goes to $50 or $60 per barrel again, I would buy OIL ETF. Last time I traded that ETF, I made $40.

[bubble_contagion]

The Nazis fought WWII with synthetic oil (made from coal) until we bombed their factories 🙂

[bubble_contagion]

The Nazis fought WWII with synthetic oil (made from coal) until we bombed their factories 🙂

[bubble_contagion]

The Nazis fought WWII with synthetic oil (made from coal) until we bombed their factories 🙂

[bubble_contagion]

The Nazis fought WWII with synthetic oil (made from coal) until we bombed their factories 🙂

[bubble_contagion]

The Nazis fought WWII with synthetic oil (made from coal) until we bombed their factories 🙂

[paramount]

I read a recent OPEC report which stated that their economic models see price support for oil in the $50-60 range.

This was a December 2007 report.

[paramount]

I read a recent OPEC report which stated that their economic models see price support for oil in the $50-60 range.

This was a December 2007 report.

[paramount]

I read a recent OPEC report which stated that their economic models see price support for oil in the $50-60 range.

This was a December 2007 report.

[paramount]

I read a recent OPEC report which stated that their economic models see price support for oil in the $50-60 range.

This was a December 2007 report.

[paramount]

I read a recent OPEC report which stated that their economic models see price support for oil in the $50-60 range.

This was a December 2007 report.

[patientrenter]

cooprider, I think you asked me months ago what I was investing in. I forgot to reply then, and this just reminded me. I think at the time I laid out my basic portfolio, and you were just asking about my hedges. Anyway, in brief here it all is again:

Basic portfolio =
1. 401k and other tax-sheltered investments = mostly fixed income stable value investments. Done for diversification and risk-aversion and tax minimization reasons. This is my “reserve fund”.

2. Stocks = 10% in V’guard domestic index fund + 7.5% in V’guard int’l index fund + rest in a personally picked high-dividend 50-stock portfolio diversified across continents, industries, and company sizes, with a bias towards small stocks. I live on the dividends from this.

3. “Hedge fund” of about 10% of my assets, that is invested highly specualtively, or to hedge dangers in my basic income portfolio. Right now I have JPY/GBP and JPY/EUR cross-currency futures, in favor of the Yen, split equally, for a nominal amount equal to my total assets, or 10 times the amount in the “hedge fund”.

4. Housing fund. This is now between 7% and 9% of my assets and still building, but should be enough to pay cash for a 2+2 condo in a non-gang area when the property market is nearer the bottom.

I am kicking myself a little for not thinking harder about Chris Scoreboar’s late 2007 advice to short the US equity market for the first quarter of 2008. Probably will turn out to be a very good call. I even kinda agreed with it, but hadn’t spent enough time thinking it through to act. Maybe I’ll add S&P500 futures (long/short) to my quiver for next hunting season.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

cooprider, I think you asked me months ago what I was investing in. I forgot to reply then, and this just reminded me. I think at the time I laid out my basic portfolio, and you were just asking about my hedges. Anyway, in brief here it all is again:

Basic portfolio =
1. 401k and other tax-sheltered investments = mostly fixed income stable value investments. Done for diversification and risk-aversion and tax minimization reasons. This is my “reserve fund”.

2. Stocks = 10% in V’guard domestic index fund + 7.5% in V’guard int’l index fund + rest in a personally picked high-dividend 50-stock portfolio diversified across continents, industries, and company sizes, with a bias towards small stocks. I live on the dividends from this.

3. “Hedge fund” of about 10% of my assets, that is invested highly specualtively, or to hedge dangers in my basic income portfolio. Right now I have JPY/GBP and JPY/EUR cross-currency futures, in favor of the Yen, split equally, for a nominal amount equal to my total assets, or 10 times the amount in the “hedge fund”.

4. Housing fund. This is now between 7% and 9% of my assets and still building, but should be enough to pay cash for a 2+2 condo in a non-gang area when the property market is nearer the bottom.

I am kicking myself a little for not thinking harder about Chris Scoreboar’s late 2007 advice to short the US equity market for the first quarter of 2008. Probably will turn out to be a very good call. I even kinda agreed with it, but hadn’t spent enough time thinking it through to act. Maybe I’ll add S&P500 futures (long/short) to my quiver for next hunting season.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

cooprider, I think you asked me months ago what I was investing in. I forgot to reply then, and this just reminded me. I think at the time I laid out my basic portfolio, and you were just asking about my hedges. Anyway, in brief here it all is again:

Basic portfolio =
1. 401k and other tax-sheltered investments = mostly fixed income stable value investments. Done for diversification and risk-aversion and tax minimization reasons. This is my “reserve fund”.

2. Stocks = 10% in V’guard domestic index fund + 7.5% in V’guard int’l index fund + rest in a personally picked high-dividend 50-stock portfolio diversified across continents, industries, and company sizes, with a bias towards small stocks. I live on the dividends from this.

3. “Hedge fund” of about 10% of my assets, that is invested highly specualtively, or to hedge dangers in my basic income portfolio. Right now I have JPY/GBP and JPY/EUR cross-currency futures, in favor of the Yen, split equally, for a nominal amount equal to my total assets, or 10 times the amount in the “hedge fund”.

4. Housing fund. This is now between 7% and 9% of my assets and still building, but should be enough to pay cash for a 2+2 condo in a non-gang area when the property market is nearer the bottom.

I am kicking myself a little for not thinking harder about Chris Scoreboar’s late 2007 advice to short the US equity market for the first quarter of 2008. Probably will turn out to be a very good call. I even kinda agreed with it, but hadn’t spent enough time thinking it through to act. Maybe I’ll add S&P500 futures (long/short) to my quiver for next hunting season.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

cooprider, I think you asked me months ago what I was investing in. I forgot to reply then, and this just reminded me. I think at the time I laid out my basic portfolio, and you were just asking about my hedges. Anyway, in brief here it all is again:

Basic portfolio =
1. 401k and other tax-sheltered investments = mostly fixed income stable value investments. Done for diversification and risk-aversion and tax minimization reasons. This is my “reserve fund”.

2. Stocks = 10% in V’guard domestic index fund + 7.5% in V’guard int’l index fund + rest in a personally picked high-dividend 50-stock portfolio diversified across continents, industries, and company sizes, with a bias towards small stocks. I live on the dividends from this.

3. “Hedge fund” of about 10% of my assets, that is invested highly specualtively, or to hedge dangers in my basic income portfolio. Right now I have JPY/GBP and JPY/EUR cross-currency futures, in favor of the Yen, split equally, for a nominal amount equal to my total assets, or 10 times the amount in the “hedge fund”.

4. Housing fund. This is now between 7% and 9% of my assets and still building, but should be enough to pay cash for a 2+2 condo in a non-gang area when the property market is nearer the bottom.

I am kicking myself a little for not thinking harder about Chris Scoreboar’s late 2007 advice to short the US equity market for the first quarter of 2008. Probably will turn out to be a very good call. I even kinda agreed with it, but hadn’t spent enough time thinking it through to act. Maybe I’ll add S&P500 futures (long/short) to my quiver for next hunting season.

Patient renter in OC

[Author]

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