Question for the bulls

[Arraya]

If somebody felt inclined they could take delinquency rates, default numbers and sales and come up with a rough idea of how shadow inventory is trending. From a casual glance at the steady increase in delinquency rates and fluctuation of sales and defaults you can see that unabsorbed properties are bottle necking. Basically, the shadow inventory is growing, if anything.

On top of that around 45% of mortgage holders are underwater. Close to 300,000. Huge default risk. Loan Mods have a >50% change of re-defaulting.

Around 25% of mortgage holders are in some form of distress. Around 150,000 or so.

Given the statistical default rate of distressed mortgages coupled with the default risk of mortgages underwater, there is immense downward pressure that is not stopping anything soon.

Therefor, the only argument for a stabilizing market is unprecedented manipulation and public money thrown at a deteriorating problem. Fed intervention can not stop, in fact they have to increase based on the trends, just to maintain.

It’s not really a “market” to analyze. It’s a theoretical experiment with lots of hidden information, that nobody quite knows what will happen.

[jpinpb]

For whatever it’s worth, personal experience, I made an offer on a place that was temporarily listed (in MLS, but not on SDL). This was 4 months ago. It had a NOD and foreclosure scheduled. Still crickets. I don’t think it’s sold to anyone else. I think it’s sitting empty. Anytime I drive by, no one’s around. Dark.

I mention this b/c there’s talk of secondary market, but I have not seen firsthand anything like that. Most of the NODs I’ve been watching do eventually get sold, just takes an inordinate amount of time, but it does get sold, for less than loan amount, either short sale or bank owned.

I’m not saying the bulk sales aren’t happening, just that I haven’t witnessed it where I’m looking. Unless it’s places that don’t get a NOD. All the places I’ve seen w/NODs, albeit slowly, do make their way to market.

[jpinpb]

For whatever it’s worth, personal experience, I made an offer on a place that was temporarily listed (in MLS, but not on SDL). This was 4 months ago. It had a NOD and foreclosure scheduled. Still crickets. I don’t think it’s sold to anyone else. I think it’s sitting empty. Anytime I drive by, no one’s around. Dark.

I mention this b/c there’s talk of secondary market, but I have not seen firsthand anything like that. Most of the NODs I’ve been watching do eventually get sold, just takes an inordinate amount of time, but it does get sold, for less than loan amount, either short sale or bank owned.

I’m not saying the bulk sales aren’t happening, just that I haven’t witnessed it where I’m looking. Unless it’s places that don’t get a NOD. All the places I’ve seen w/NODs, albeit slowly, do make their way to market.

[jpinpb]

For whatever it’s worth, personal experience, I made an offer on a place that was temporarily listed (in MLS, but not on SDL). This was 4 months ago. It had a NOD and foreclosure scheduled. Still crickets. I don’t think it’s sold to anyone else. I think it’s sitting empty. Anytime I drive by, no one’s around. Dark.

I mention this b/c there’s talk of secondary market, but I have not seen firsthand anything like that. Most of the NODs I’ve been watching do eventually get sold, just takes an inordinate amount of time, but it does get sold, for less than loan amount, either short sale or bank owned.

I’m not saying the bulk sales aren’t happening, just that I haven’t witnessed it where I’m looking. Unless it’s places that don’t get a NOD. All the places I’ve seen w/NODs, albeit slowly, do make their way to market.

[jpinpb]

For whatever it’s worth, personal experience, I made an offer on a place that was temporarily listed (in MLS, but not on SDL). This was 4 months ago. It had a NOD and foreclosure scheduled. Still crickets. I don’t think it’s sold to anyone else. I think it’s sitting empty. Anytime I drive by, no one’s around. Dark.

I mention this b/c there’s talk of secondary market, but I have not seen firsthand anything like that. Most of the NODs I’ve been watching do eventually get sold, just takes an inordinate amount of time, but it does get sold, for less than loan amount, either short sale or bank owned.

I’m not saying the bulk sales aren’t happening, just that I haven’t witnessed it where I’m looking. Unless it’s places that don’t get a NOD. All the places I’ve seen w/NODs, albeit slowly, do make their way to market.

[jpinpb]

For whatever it’s worth, personal experience, I made an offer on a place that was temporarily listed (in MLS, but not on SDL). This was 4 months ago. It had a NOD and foreclosure scheduled. Still crickets. I don’t think it’s sold to anyone else. I think it’s sitting empty. Anytime I drive by, no one’s around. Dark.

I mention this b/c there’s talk of secondary market, but I have not seen firsthand anything like that. Most of the NODs I’ve been watching do eventually get sold, just takes an inordinate amount of time, but it does get sold, for less than loan amount, either short sale or bank owned.

I’m not saying the bulk sales aren’t happening, just that I haven’t witnessed it where I’m looking. Unless it’s places that don’t get a NOD. All the places I’ve seen w/NODs, albeit slowly, do make their way to market.

[Arraya]

The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.

Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.

All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.

[Arraya]

The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.

Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.

All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.

[Arraya]

The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.

Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.

All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.

[Arraya]

The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.

Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.

All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.

[Arraya]

The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.

Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.

All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.

[Arraya]

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