Question for SD Appraisers and Realtors

[davelj]

I have a friend who’s buying a 32,000 square foot parcel of land in the Playas-Rosarito corridor down in Baja for $1 million. It’s immediately east of the Scenic Highway, the entire property has an unobstructed ocean view (with houses already built to the west of the highway, so the view shouldn’t get obstructed for the foreseeable future) and it has been approved for a short, direct access road to the Scenic Highway.

Here’s my question: How much would a similar parcel of undeveloped land – if it existed – cost in San Diego on a price/square foot basis? I’m thinking, for example, if a similar parcel existed (which I don’t believe it does) up in the Cardiff/Encinitas area up on the hill to the east of the train tracks. Any idea as to what raw land like that would go for?

I know these are not particularly comparable pieces of land, but I’m just curious about the “spread” – so to speak – on prices between unobstructed ocean view property in San Diego versus Baja.

Any thoughtful responses would be appreciated.

[sdrealtor]

It all depends upon what you can do with the land. If he can build 10 units on it makes a big difference as opposed to whether he can build one house on it.

A good comp might be the pumpkin patch owned by the SRF or even the agricultural land they own off Summit. I know someone that has done some analysis for them (even though publically they say they will never sell it). It might take some time but I’ll see what I can find out.

[sdrealtor]

It all depends upon what you can do with the land. If he can build 10 units on it makes a big difference as opposed to whether he can build one house on it.

A good comp might be the pumpkin patch owned by the SRF or even the agricultural land they own off Summit. I know someone that has done some analysis for them (even though publically they say they will never sell it). It might take some time but I’ll see what I can find out.

[davelj]

Good point. Let’s assume it’s approved for as many condos as regulations will allow. My friend’s received approval to build an 8-story condo tower with 5 units/floor, another 20 townhomes in two rows of 10 each, and a clubhouse and pool. The land is on a hillside so every unit as well as the clubhouse and pool will have an ocean view. I’m thinking the units will be 2br/bath of around 1200 square feet each.

Any information would be appreciated. I’m really just interested in this from a curiosity standpoint of what kind of discount this sort of land goes for by virtue (or penalty) of being south of the border.

[davelj]

Good point. Let’s assume it’s approved for as many condos as regulations will allow. My friend’s received approval to build an 8-story condo tower with 5 units/floor, another 20 townhomes in two rows of 10 each, and a clubhouse and pool. The land is on a hillside so every unit as well as the clubhouse and pool will have an ocean view. I’m thinking the units will be 2br/bath of around 1200 square feet each.

Any information would be appreciated. I’m really just interested in this from a curiosity standpoint of what kind of discount this sort of land goes for by virtue (or penalty) of being south of the border.

[sdrealtor]

I cant even imagine what something like that would be worth in a prime SD location. The value would be in the zoning and I would guess it would be worth at least $10M if you could get 60 oceanview units on it perhaps alot more. The truth is I dont really know and its just a wild assed guess.

[sdrealtor]

I cant even imagine what something like that would be worth in a prime SD location. The value would be in the zoning and I would guess it would be worth at least $10M if you could get 60 oceanview units on it perhaps alot more. The truth is I dont really know and its just a wild assed guess.

[NotCranky]

32,000 square feet is about 3/4 of an acre.

This:”Good point. Let’s assume it’s approved for as many condos as regulations will allow. My friend’s received approval to build an 8-story condo tower with 5 units/floor, another 20 townhomes in two rows of 10 each, and a clubhouse and pool. The land is on a hillside so every unit as well as the clubhouse and pool will have an ocean view. I’m thinking the units will be 2br/bath of around 1200 square feet each.”…

Would take around a couple of acres min probably more like 3. If it were zoned for 5 story condo towers I doubt anyone would build row homes. Why not a bigger condo project and double the units to around 120? Like sdr said,if a lot like that was zoned for and could accomodate that project, it would be very pricey.Bugs could probably say. Keep in mind it is never going to happen on 32,000 square feet .

[NotCranky]

32,000 square feet is about 3/4 of an acre.

This:”Good point. Let’s assume it’s approved for as many condos as regulations will allow. My friend’s received approval to build an 8-story condo tower with 5 units/floor, another 20 townhomes in two rows of 10 each, and a clubhouse and pool. The land is on a hillside so every unit as well as the clubhouse and pool will have an ocean view. I’m thinking the units will be 2br/bath of around 1200 square feet each.”…

Would take around a couple of acres min probably more like 3. If it were zoned for 5 story condo towers I doubt anyone would build row homes. Why not a bigger condo project and double the units to around 120? Like sdr said,if a lot like that was zoned for and could accomodate that project, it would be very pricey.Bugs could probably say. Keep in mind it is never going to happen on 32,000 square feet .

[Bugs]

The last “unobstructable view” lot I know of that sold in Carlsbad (across the street from the stairs at Terramar) sold for $1,500,000 back in 11/2005; and it’s now a pending after being listed for $2,400,000. It was about 10,000 SqFt but was only good for a single family residence. There are several parcels up on the east side of Pacific Ave in Oceanside that have sold in the $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 – most of those are underimproved and purchased for site value.

I don’t know what the deal is with the parcel you’re talking about, but I do know there are serious problems getting water on the east side of the Scenic Highway in some areas, and sewer or septic is a problem as well. I also know you’re not going to get a 40-unit tower on a 32,000 SqFt lot, much less the additional row houses. This might be part of a larger parcel or you might have your numbers mixed up.

A lot can happen between purchase and completion of construction down there. I know of a residential subdivision that’s been completely built out but can’t be inhabited until they buy their water rights. Dumb gringos.

I wouldn’t want to be in the development business down there right now. Baja Norte’s RE markets have been distorted by California’s bubble and they’re falling even faster than we are because the money isnt flowing down there the way it was when times were good. I anticipate a lot of the second home purchases down there are going to get resold at whatever the market will bear. Some of the money that went to Mexico during this last run up is going to end up staying there.

[Bugs]

The last “unobstructable view” lot I know of that sold in Carlsbad (across the street from the stairs at Terramar) sold for $1,500,000 back in 11/2005; and it’s now a pending after being listed for $2,400,000. It was about 10,000 SqFt but was only good for a single family residence. There are several parcels up on the east side of Pacific Ave in Oceanside that have sold in the $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 – most of those are underimproved and purchased for site value.

I don’t know what the deal is with the parcel you’re talking about, but I do know there are serious problems getting water on the east side of the Scenic Highway in some areas, and sewer or septic is a problem as well. I also know you’re not going to get a 40-unit tower on a 32,000 SqFt lot, much less the additional row houses. This might be part of a larger parcel or you might have your numbers mixed up.

A lot can happen between purchase and completion of construction down there. I know of a residential subdivision that’s been completely built out but can’t be inhabited until they buy their water rights. Dumb gringos.

I wouldn’t want to be in the development business down there right now. Baja Norte’s RE markets have been distorted by California’s bubble and they’re falling even faster than we are because the money isnt flowing down there the way it was when times were good. I anticipate a lot of the second home purchases down there are going to get resold at whatever the market will bear. Some of the money that went to Mexico during this last run up is going to end up staying there.

[davelj]

Bugs, et al… yeah, I spaced for a moment on calculating the lot size. The lot is 108,000 square feet or almost 2.5 acres. (It’s 10,000 square meters and I just multiplied by a little over 3, thus forgetting the “squared” part. Doh!)

Bugs, I agree with your entire last paragraph. It looks overbuilt down there and heavily influenced by the Southern California and Arizona real estate markets. My understanding is that the typical buyer used their home equity up here to make a down payment on a place down there. I will be curious to see how things shake out down there over the next couple of years. It’s hard to believe that there’s enough “real” demand for everything that’s being built down there…

Having said all that… the guy who wants to do this particular development is not a dumb gringo (he’s Mexican, has dual citizenship, and is well-connected in Baja), although his timing may be off here. He’s done a fair amount of building, both commercial and residential, in Tijuana (and he’s built several homes in Chula Vista) but he hasn’t done a project like this. (There won’t be any water or septic issues for this particular property.)

I told him point blank that this wasn’t my type of investment but that I’d introduce him to some people that I know who do this sort of thing. I’m basically agnostic on the whole thing. I wish the guy well.

As I said previously I’m just interested in what the spread is between “similar” parcels in Baja and San Diego. And from the numbers bandied about thus far it looks to be larger than I thought.

Right now you can buy a newly constructed 1200 sqft 2bed/2bath condo in a reasonably nice tower on the ocean in Rosarito for about $250K – $300K. The same unit in La Jolla/Del Mar/Solana Beach/etc. would probably cost between $750K and $1.25 million (depending on lots of factors). So I was wondering if the spread was larger on raw land, and at least in this case it appears to be the case.

[davelj]

Bugs, et al… yeah, I spaced for a moment on calculating the lot size. The lot is 108,000 square feet or almost 2.5 acres. (It’s 10,000 square meters and I just multiplied by a little over 3, thus forgetting the “squared” part. Doh!)

Bugs, I agree with your entire last paragraph. It looks overbuilt down there and heavily influenced by the Southern California and Arizona real estate markets. My understanding is that the typical buyer used their home equity up here to make a down payment on a place down there. I will be curious to see how things shake out down there over the next couple of years. It’s hard to believe that there’s enough “real” demand for everything that’s being built down there…

Having said all that… the guy who wants to do this particular development is not a dumb gringo (he’s Mexican, has dual citizenship, and is well-connected in Baja), although his timing may be off here. He’s done a fair amount of building, both commercial and residential, in Tijuana (and he’s built several homes in Chula Vista) but he hasn’t done a project like this. (There won’t be any water or septic issues for this particular property.)

I told him point blank that this wasn’t my type of investment but that I’d introduce him to some people that I know who do this sort of thing. I’m basically agnostic on the whole thing. I wish the guy well.

As I said previously I’m just interested in what the spread is between “similar” parcels in Baja and San Diego. And from the numbers bandied about thus far it looks to be larger than I thought.

Right now you can buy a newly constructed 1200 sqft 2bed/2bath condo in a reasonably nice tower on the ocean in Rosarito for about $250K – $300K. The same unit in La Jolla/Del Mar/Solana Beach/etc. would probably cost between $750K and $1.25 million (depending on lots of factors). So I was wondering if the spread was larger on raw land, and at least in this case it appears to be the case.

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