Question for all of the Nostradamus’s on here

[Alex_angel]

People will always look back in hindsight and claim they knew something was going to happen. I’m pretty sure if I predict the housing market will crash, stay flat or gain in the next month that I will be right. 1 out of 3 ain’t so bad right?

[Alex_angel]

Ex-SD. I am not here to argue. I am here to see why people are throwing dates around like they are so certain. When I see wait until 2012 for the bottom written it irritates more than anything. It is irresponsible to throw dates like this around. When people call others dumb for buying now is also dumb. When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time? No. Looking back you can. What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen. If you’re looking to flip then a home is not the right purchase. But if you’re looking to live here for work and raise a family then by all means buy. As long as you can make the payments then who really cares what happens to the market. When you live in an area where everyone bought close the the millions and you got in for $750k today then what do you have to worry about? The rest of the area should worry but you don’t if you have a 30 year that you can afford.
Most people on here talk like people don’t get paid. I’m sorry to say it but there are a lot of people that make great incomes and owning a home here is no big deal. How they hell have people been able to afford SF and OC homes over the last 10 years? How do people afford to live in NY? They make money and can afford it. I’d rather live in a nice house and drive a camry than rent and drive a Mercedes 500 or a Porsche 911 live most people do where I currently live. It is a joke. They’d rather drive a piece of shit high prices car around than own a home. I want to take care of my kids and raising them in a small apartment or renting a house and paying someone elses mortgage is not my idea of being ‘Smart’ as most of you think it is. It is always easy to be pissed at others that have what you don’t. That is the sentiment that I get here. Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.

[Alex_angel]

Ex-SD. I am not here to argue. I am here to see why people are throwing dates around like they are so certain. When I see wait until 2012 for the bottom written it irritates more than anything. It is irresponsible to throw dates like this around. When people call others dumb for buying now is also dumb. When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time? No. Looking back you can. What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen. If you’re looking to flip then a home is not the right purchase. But if you’re looking to live here for work and raise a family then by all means buy. As long as you can make the payments then who really cares what happens to the market. When you live in an area where everyone bought close the the millions and you got in for $750k today then what do you have to worry about? The rest of the area should worry but you don’t if you have a 30 year that you can afford.
Most people on here talk like people don’t get paid. I’m sorry to say it but there are a lot of people that make great incomes and owning a home here is no big deal. How they hell have people been able to afford SF and OC homes over the last 10 years? How do people afford to live in NY? They make money and can afford it. I’d rather live in a nice house and drive a camry than rent and drive a Mercedes 500 or a Porsche 911 live most people do where I currently live. It is a joke. They’d rather drive a piece of shit high prices car around than own a home. I want to take care of my kids and raising them in a small apartment or renting a house and paying someone elses mortgage is not my idea of being ‘Smart’ as most of you think it is. It is always easy to be pissed at others that have what you don’t. That is the sentiment that I get here. Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.

[Alex_angel]

Ex-SD. I am not here to argue. I am here to see why people are throwing dates around like they are so certain. When I see wait until 2012 for the bottom written it irritates more than anything. It is irresponsible to throw dates like this around. When people call others dumb for buying now is also dumb. When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time? No. Looking back you can. What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen. If you’re looking to flip then a home is not the right purchase. But if you’re looking to live here for work and raise a family then by all means buy. As long as you can make the payments then who really cares what happens to the market. When you live in an area where everyone bought close the the millions and you got in for $750k today then what do you have to worry about? The rest of the area should worry but you don’t if you have a 30 year that you can afford.
Most people on here talk like people don’t get paid. I’m sorry to say it but there are a lot of people that make great incomes and owning a home here is no big deal. How they hell have people been able to afford SF and OC homes over the last 10 years? How do people afford to live in NY? They make money and can afford it. I’d rather live in a nice house and drive a camry than rent and drive a Mercedes 500 or a Porsche 911 live most people do where I currently live. It is a joke. They’d rather drive a piece of shit high prices car around than own a home. I want to take care of my kids and raising them in a small apartment or renting a house and paying someone elses mortgage is not my idea of being ‘Smart’ as most of you think it is. It is always easy to be pissed at others that have what you don’t. That is the sentiment that I get here. Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.

[lindismith]

Alex,
Why are you on this board?

Just askin’.

[lindismith]

Alex,
Why are you on this board?

Just askin’.

[lindismith]

Alex,
Why are you on this board?

Just askin’.

[Ex-SD]

Alex, I’m not one of those people that you mentioned. I’m just watching the SoCal & NoCal housing markets from South Carolina after leaving my home(s) in SD of 30 years. Whether you want to believe me or not, I was able to predict this mess with good accuracy and timed it just right when I sold my home and cashed out. My purpose in being on this particular forum is that I would hate to see anybody (other than my sworn enemies who wish me harm) lose their hard earned money by either holding on to a home that they already own and that they absolutely will have to sell within the next 10 years or someone who is thinking of buying a home getting stuck with a super high mortgage payment for 30 years when all they have to do is rent and wait a few years and they’ll be able to buy the same type of home in the same area for 30-50% less. I have a son who still lives in SD and he is renting and saving his money until this whole thing bottoms out. BTW: I’m probably going to move back to SD if I’ve figured this correctly. Can anyone absolutely predict that it will bottom out in 2012? NO! But, my guess is late 2011 or 2012 will either be the bottom or darned close to it. But, even then, prices will not spring back overnight. Buyers who wait for the bottom will have their choice of plenty of properties for sale. Even the richest investors will not buy a property in SD at the present prices because they won’t get a decent net return on their money. The majority of markets in the USA have nice single family housing for $175-$250k. Houses above that level are usually luxury homes. CA wages are not that much higher than those in other markets that offer these homes so now that the brokers won’t be selling mortgages for $600k houses to window cleaners and berry pickers and down payments are going to be a normal requirement again, if you factor in all of the foreclosures that have already happened, look at the high number that are expected when loans reset for borrowers who have adjustable ARM mortgages and look at the interest rate on a jumbo loan which is presently required to purchase just about every SFR in CA…………..you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this rocket had to crash.
I sincerely hope that you can find what you want within a reasonable timetable but if you’re presently renting and going to stay in CA, I would strongly advise you to continue doing so for a minimum of two more years. If things haven’t gone down as much as the majority of people on this forum (and others) are saying at the end of two years, then you can look at buying but with all of the factors that I mentioned above coming into play, I think you’ll be a very happy camper that you waited.
Good luck to you whatever you decide.

[Ex-SD]

Alex, I’m not one of those people that you mentioned. I’m just watching the SoCal & NoCal housing markets from South Carolina after leaving my home(s) in SD of 30 years. Whether you want to believe me or not, I was able to predict this mess with good accuracy and timed it just right when I sold my home and cashed out. My purpose in being on this particular forum is that I would hate to see anybody (other than my sworn enemies who wish me harm) lose their hard earned money by either holding on to a home that they already own and that they absolutely will have to sell within the next 10 years or someone who is thinking of buying a home getting stuck with a super high mortgage payment for 30 years when all they have to do is rent and wait a few years and they’ll be able to buy the same type of home in the same area for 30-50% less. I have a son who still lives in SD and he is renting and saving his money until this whole thing bottoms out. BTW: I’m probably going to move back to SD if I’ve figured this correctly. Can anyone absolutely predict that it will bottom out in 2012? NO! But, my guess is late 2011 or 2012 will either be the bottom or darned close to it. But, even then, prices will not spring back overnight. Buyers who wait for the bottom will have their choice of plenty of properties for sale. Even the richest investors will not buy a property in SD at the present prices because they won’t get a decent net return on their money. The majority of markets in the USA have nice single family housing for $175-$250k. Houses above that level are usually luxury homes. CA wages are not that much higher than those in other markets that offer these homes so now that the brokers won’t be selling mortgages for $600k houses to window cleaners and berry pickers and down payments are going to be a normal requirement again, if you factor in all of the foreclosures that have already happened, look at the high number that are expected when loans reset for borrowers who have adjustable ARM mortgages and look at the interest rate on a jumbo loan which is presently required to purchase just about every SFR in CA…………..you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this rocket had to crash.
I sincerely hope that you can find what you want within a reasonable timetable but if you’re presently renting and going to stay in CA, I would strongly advise you to continue doing so for a minimum of two more years. If things haven’t gone down as much as the majority of people on this forum (and others) are saying at the end of two years, then you can look at buying but with all of the factors that I mentioned above coming into play, I think you’ll be a very happy camper that you waited.
Good luck to you whatever you decide.

[Ex-SD]

Alex, I’m not one of those people that you mentioned. I’m just watching the SoCal & NoCal housing markets from South Carolina after leaving my home(s) in SD of 30 years. Whether you want to believe me or not, I was able to predict this mess with good accuracy and timed it just right when I sold my home and cashed out. My purpose in being on this particular forum is that I would hate to see anybody (other than my sworn enemies who wish me harm) lose their hard earned money by either holding on to a home that they already own and that they absolutely will have to sell within the next 10 years or someone who is thinking of buying a home getting stuck with a super high mortgage payment for 30 years when all they have to do is rent and wait a few years and they’ll be able to buy the same type of home in the same area for 30-50% less. I have a son who still lives in SD and he is renting and saving his money until this whole thing bottoms out. BTW: I’m probably going to move back to SD if I’ve figured this correctly. Can anyone absolutely predict that it will bottom out in 2012? NO! But, my guess is late 2011 or 2012 will either be the bottom or darned close to it. But, even then, prices will not spring back overnight. Buyers who wait for the bottom will have their choice of plenty of properties for sale. Even the richest investors will not buy a property in SD at the present prices because they won’t get a decent net return on their money. The majority of markets in the USA have nice single family housing for $175-$250k. Houses above that level are usually luxury homes. CA wages are not that much higher than those in other markets that offer these homes so now that the brokers won’t be selling mortgages for $600k houses to window cleaners and berry pickers and down payments are going to be a normal requirement again, if you factor in all of the foreclosures that have already happened, look at the high number that are expected when loans reset for borrowers who have adjustable ARM mortgages and look at the interest rate on a jumbo loan which is presently required to purchase just about every SFR in CA…………..you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this rocket had to crash.
I sincerely hope that you can find what you want within a reasonable timetable but if you’re presently renting and going to stay in CA, I would strongly advise you to continue doing so for a minimum of two more years. If things haven’t gone down as much as the majority of people on this forum (and others) are saying at the end of two years, then you can look at buying but with all of the factors that I mentioned above coming into play, I think you’ll be a very happy camper that you waited.
Good luck to you whatever you decide.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that the plural of the name Nostradamus will be Nostradamii;)

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that the plural of the name Nostradamus will be Nostradamii;)

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that the plural of the name Nostradamus will be Nostradamii;)

[Bugs]

It’s true that people want to benefit, but I think most people would prefer not to benefit at someone else’s expense. Just remember, the people who are overextended now are not being screwed by the people who now want the market to correct; they were screwed by the people who sold them their albatross. If you want to blame someone for the suffering of the FBs, Piggs are absolutely the last group of the someones who you should be looking at.

Your comment about how people were able to get themselves into this mess is practically a gimme. You imply the region was economically capable of supporting all those prices without artificial assistance. The problem with that suggestion is that current events are proving it to be completely unfounded.

Based on the number of ARMs that were used and the subsequent trends for default it has become obvious that a significant percentage of buyers who bought in 2004 and 2005 do NOT have such great jobs or earn the incomes necessary to sustain their purchases.

I don’t know when this trend will end and I’ve made no predictions beyond saying it isn’t going to happen in the next 2 years. The only reason I even go that far is because I have already seen a RE recession up close once before and I’ve seen what happens when there are a significant number of foreclosures in the market.

Price is a function of supply and demand. Use any measure you want – right now we have a lot more supply than the effective demand can absorb. Remember, “effective demand” goes beyond the number of people who simply want, and includes only those buyers who have both the desire and the financial means to achieve those desires. The normalization of the credit markets only serves to further reduce the number of would-be buyers who comprise that effective demand.

Before pricing can stablize the market has to achieve some level of equilibrium between the number of typically motivated listings vs. the rate of sales. That can’t happen when there are a lot of foreclosures available in the market, and all indications are that the stream of resale listings resulting from foreclosures will not recede below their current level until at least 2011.

The market has to absorb both the must-sell inventory and clear out all the excess wanna-sells before the number of available properties approaches the rate of sales. Once that happens and there are enough buyers to go around we’ll see price stabilization. It basically can’t happen before then.

That’s why I think that 2011 is the EARLIEST this trend can stabilize and we can go back into growth mode. The aggregate losses will be largely a function of the length of time multiplied by the current rate of decline that we’ve already seen. If the rate of decline speeds up the losses will be greater, if it slows down they’ll end up being less.

I was too optimistic in the early 1990s and called the end of that downtrend a couple years prior to when it actually occurred. I am a reasonably optimistic person by nature (I’m just not irrational about it), so it’s very possible that my opinion about 2011 being the earliest the market can turn may also turn out to be optimistic.

About the only way I can envision this decline being cut shorter than 2011 is if by artificial means. The most commonly touted artificial life preserver being bandied about right now if the taxpayers are compelled to bail out these investors and subsidize these foolish FBs. Aliens from outer space might come to Earth to give us the secret to clean power for free. The Rapture or it’s equivalent might happen and man may learn to live in peace without war or conflict.

But barring some unforseeable event changing the history of man, I’m just not seeing any shortcuts.

[Bugs]

It’s true that people want to benefit, but I think most people would prefer not to benefit at someone else’s expense. Just remember, the people who are overextended now are not being screwed by the people who now want the market to correct; they were screwed by the people who sold them their albatross. If you want to blame someone for the suffering of the FBs, Piggs are absolutely the last group of the someones who you should be looking at.

Your comment about how people were able to get themselves into this mess is practically a gimme. You imply the region was economically capable of supporting all those prices without artificial assistance. The problem with that suggestion is that current events are proving it to be completely unfounded.

Based on the number of ARMs that were used and the subsequent trends for default it has become obvious that a significant percentage of buyers who bought in 2004 and 2005 do NOT have such great jobs or earn the incomes necessary to sustain their purchases.

I don’t know when this trend will end and I’ve made no predictions beyond saying it isn’t going to happen in the next 2 years. The only reason I even go that far is because I have already seen a RE recession up close once before and I’ve seen what happens when there are a significant number of foreclosures in the market.

Price is a function of supply and demand. Use any measure you want – right now we have a lot more supply than the effective demand can absorb. Remember, “effective demand” goes beyond the number of people who simply want, and includes only those buyers who have both the desire and the financial means to achieve those desires. The normalization of the credit markets only serves to further reduce the number of would-be buyers who comprise that effective demand.

Before pricing can stablize the market has to achieve some level of equilibrium between the number of typically motivated listings vs. the rate of sales. That can’t happen when there are a lot of foreclosures available in the market, and all indications are that the stream of resale listings resulting from foreclosures will not recede below their current level until at least 2011.

The market has to absorb both the must-sell inventory and clear out all the excess wanna-sells before the number of available properties approaches the rate of sales. Once that happens and there are enough buyers to go around we’ll see price stabilization. It basically can’t happen before then.

That’s why I think that 2011 is the EARLIEST this trend can stabilize and we can go back into growth mode. The aggregate losses will be largely a function of the length of time multiplied by the current rate of decline that we’ve already seen. If the rate of decline speeds up the losses will be greater, if it slows down they’ll end up being less.

I was too optimistic in the early 1990s and called the end of that downtrend a couple years prior to when it actually occurred. I am a reasonably optimistic person by nature (I’m just not irrational about it), so it’s very possible that my opinion about 2011 being the earliest the market can turn may also turn out to be optimistic.

About the only way I can envision this decline being cut shorter than 2011 is if by artificial means. The most commonly touted artificial life preserver being bandied about right now if the taxpayers are compelled to bail out these investors and subsidize these foolish FBs. Aliens from outer space might come to Earth to give us the secret to clean power for free. The Rapture or it’s equivalent might happen and man may learn to live in peace without war or conflict.

But barring some unforseeable event changing the history of man, I’m just not seeing any shortcuts.

[Author]

Posts