Q2 ’07 GDP

[admin]

Trucking is an important coincident indicator of the economy, and the April and May numbers were bad:

http://www.truckline.com/NR/exeres/F441DBD7-BF5C-45C7-A865-43A9A68F1B71.htm

YOY, shipments were down 2.7% in April and were down further, YOY, 3.6% in May.

Tomorrow we get personal consumption expenditures (PCEs) (70% of GDP) for May. April’s numbers were weak; it will be interesting to see May’s numbers.

I have not seen any sustained increases in real (price-adjusted) economic activity over April-May. I’ll do my arithmetic over the next few days, based on the May (and revised April) PCEs, but it sure feels like 0% growth in Q2 ’07 GDP.

[CAwireman]

There oughta be a recession brewing out there somewhere, and soon!

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

There oughta be a recession brewing out there somewhere, and soon!

HiggyBaby

[HereWeGo]

We shall see soon enough.

[HereWeGo]

We shall see soon enough.

[Anonymous]

Hey, it looks like the economy is fine:

“…consumer spending rose by 0.5 percent for the second month in a row…” 6% annualized growth; awesome!

Nah. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending in May was $8.310T; in April, it was $8.305T. Growth, month-to- month, was less than 0.1%, and annualizing such, it was less than 1.0%.

70% of the economy is growing at less than 1.0%, and important elements of the remaining 30% are declining; yet, analyst predictions are for the economy to grow 2.8-3.8%. I do not understand.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteId=

[Anonymous]

Hey, it looks like the economy is fine:

“…consumer spending rose by 0.5 percent for the second month in a row…” 6% annualized growth; awesome!

Nah. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending in May was $8.310T; in April, it was $8.305T. Growth, month-to- month, was less than 0.1%, and annualizing such, it was less than 1.0%.

70% of the economy is growing at less than 1.0%, and important elements of the remaining 30% are declining; yet, analyst predictions are for the economy to grow 2.8-3.8%. I do not understand.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteId=

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

jg – I just have to ask why you are rooting so hard for a recession and an RE crash? Is it to prove yourself correct, or do you just want to see people suffering? I have heard from the people that have met you, that you are a very nice guy, so I do not understand why you are so eager to see bad things happen.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

jg – I just have to ask why you are rooting so hard for a recession and an RE crash? Is it to prove yourself correct, or do you just want to see people suffering? I have heard from the people that have met you, that you are a very nice guy, so I do not understand why you are so eager to see bad things happen.

[HereWeGo]

He’s short the S&P, Chris. He’s just rooting for his portfolio, just like the rest of us.

If you’ve seen Doug Kass or Gary Schilling on the tube, they’re not really any different.

[HereWeGo]

He’s short the S&P, Chris. He’s just rooting for his portfolio, just like the rest of us.

If you’ve seen Doug Kass or Gary Schilling on the tube, they’re not really any different.

[Anonymous]

HWG, I’m not rooting for my portfolio, directly. I think I see what is coming (economically), and placed my bets accordingly. Now, I just bide my time, and, along the way, check to see if I am wrong in my assumptions.

Chris, silly spending over these past 25 years, compounded by loose lending recently, has caused all sorts of societal ills. I want a return to people and governments spending within their means — we stopped doing that since at least ’81 (http://piggington.com/depression) — as it will cure a lot of our societal ills.

Bring back the Cleavers, Donna Reed, and small government at all levels!

[Anonymous]

HWG, I’m not rooting for my portfolio, directly. I think I see what is coming (economically), and placed my bets accordingly. Now, I just bide my time, and, along the way, check to see if I am wrong in my assumptions.

Chris, silly spending over these past 25 years, compounded by loose lending recently, has caused all sorts of societal ills. I want a return to people and governments spending within their means — we stopped doing that since at least ’81 (http://piggington.com/depression) — as it will cure a lot of our societal ills.

Bring back the Cleavers, Donna Reed, and small government at all levels!

[POZ]

jg is right,

I compare our current situation to a forest fire and I fully expect a recession to occur sooner rather than later. We have learned that forest fires help clean out undergrowth and forest floor litter. Lightning is going to cause fires and if they are allowed to burn, they keep the flammable material to a minimum. When not allowed to burn, the buildup causes unrelenting fires that burn for months. We also learned about seeds that need intense heat to open and depend on fires for their population’s survival. Fires also return to the earth, the necessary nutrients the soil supplies for growth. After years of growing seasons, nutrients are depleted. Fires rejuvenate the soil.

Our current economic situation is analogus in that the credit bubble, the loose lending standards (not just in housing), low or non exisent risk aversion, inflation (the real kind not the one that the gov likes to blind us with), irresponsible monetary policy (and you could go on and on) have been allowed to run amok. like allowing the underbrush in a forest to accumulate without allowing for mother nature to “take its course”, all these things add up to something BIG when you are forced to deal with them as a whole instead of having dealt with them appropriately as they occured they were extinguished by a troop of smoke jumpers.
Unfortunately that is where we find ourselves today and in order to cleanse and rejuvinate the soil, so that the seedlings can flourish, and grow (in the form of new business, jobs, and prosperity).

The trees, the anmimals, and the forest are all still there and flourishing it is the dead wood and litter that fueled the fires and now the forest are clean and well nurished. Yes it will be painful, and a lot of people will get hurt, but that is the price we pay for our irresponsible behaviour. Lets face it the people that will get hurt are the ones who are ill prepared ie no savings, highly in credit debt (think home, cars, plasma tvs, etc.) It is unfortunate but we have to learn somehow.

[POZ]

jg is right,

I compare our current situation to a forest fire and I fully expect a recession to occur sooner rather than later. We have learned that forest fires help clean out undergrowth and forest floor litter. Lightning is going to cause fires and if they are allowed to burn, they keep the flammable material to a minimum. When not allowed to burn, the buildup causes unrelenting fires that burn for months. We also learned about seeds that need intense heat to open and depend on fires for their population’s survival. Fires also return to the earth, the necessary nutrients the soil supplies for growth. After years of growing seasons, nutrients are depleted. Fires rejuvenate the soil.

Our current economic situation is analogus in that the credit bubble, the loose lending standards (not just in housing), low or non exisent risk aversion, inflation (the real kind not the one that the gov likes to blind us with), irresponsible monetary policy (and you could go on and on) have been allowed to run amok. like allowing the underbrush in a forest to accumulate without allowing for mother nature to “take its course”, all these things add up to something BIG when you are forced to deal with them as a whole instead of having dealt with them appropriately as they occured they were extinguished by a troop of smoke jumpers.
Unfortunately that is where we find ourselves today and in order to cleanse and rejuvinate the soil, so that the seedlings can flourish, and grow (in the form of new business, jobs, and prosperity).

The trees, the anmimals, and the forest are all still there and flourishing it is the dead wood and litter that fueled the fires and now the forest are clean and well nurished. Yes it will be painful, and a lot of people will get hurt, but that is the price we pay for our irresponsible behaviour. Lets face it the people that will get hurt are the ones who are ill prepared ie no savings, highly in credit debt (think home, cars, plasma tvs, etc.) It is unfortunate but we have to learn somehow.

[Author]

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