price collapse in Chula Vista

[sunny88]

There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?

[sunny88]

There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?

[sunny88]

There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sunny88]There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?[/quote]

sunny88, regarding SFR’s, yes, there ARE current buyers for currently-marketed properties (in 91913, 91914 and 91915). However, much of the potential “inventory” within these zips is still in the shadows at present (with the delinquent trustor still occupying). I see up to another 20% downside to these tracts but the markdowns will be slow. Lenders will trickle them out one by one, so as not to market more than 2-3 of the same floorplan in a tract at the same time. In the banks’ way of thinking, this practice helps shore up their prices. The “bottom” will come within the next 3 – 3.5 years but by the time it’s here, there won’t be much inventory on the market to choose from.

To a much lesser extent, the values of RE in the zips of 91910 and 91911 could trend a little downward but it all depends on the amount of distressed inventory in those zips and there has not been nearly as much in 2010 as there was in 2009. The prevalence of REO’s in 91910 that I’ve run across this year has been very spotty. My particular area of dtn Chula is occupied by many free-and-clear resident owners and I haven’t noticed any REOs around here for about a year but have not really been looking for them.

The average age of a house in 91910 west of I-805 is 55 years and the average age of a house in 91910 east of I-805 is about 32 years. The average age of a house in 91911 west of I-805 is 45 years and the average age of a house in 91911 east of I-805 is about 22 years. 90+% of these (91910, 91911) tracts (and customs) ARE NOT situated in CFD’s and therefore have no MR. Except for Rolling Hills Ranch (91914) and three small pockets of 91913 (1 MR pd off and 2 have no MR) ALL of the tracts in the heavily distressed zips of 91913, 91914 and 91915 have MR and (sometimes multiple) HOA’s affecting the properties within them. IMO, these substantial “extra monthly expenses” have greatly contributed to the downturn in value of these tracts and resultant softness in their micromarkets.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sunny88]There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?[/quote]

sunny88, regarding SFR’s, yes, there ARE current buyers for currently-marketed properties (in 91913, 91914 and 91915). However, much of the potential “inventory” within these zips is still in the shadows at present (with the delinquent trustor still occupying). I see up to another 20% downside to these tracts but the markdowns will be slow. Lenders will trickle them out one by one, so as not to market more than 2-3 of the same floorplan in a tract at the same time. In the banks’ way of thinking, this practice helps shore up their prices. The “bottom” will come within the next 3 – 3.5 years but by the time it’s here, there won’t be much inventory on the market to choose from.

To a much lesser extent, the values of RE in the zips of 91910 and 91911 could trend a little downward but it all depends on the amount of distressed inventory in those zips and there has not been nearly as much in 2010 as there was in 2009. The prevalence of REO’s in 91910 that I’ve run across this year has been very spotty. My particular area of dtn Chula is occupied by many free-and-clear resident owners and I haven’t noticed any REOs around here for about a year but have not really been looking for them.

The average age of a house in 91910 west of I-805 is 55 years and the average age of a house in 91910 east of I-805 is about 32 years. The average age of a house in 91911 west of I-805 is 45 years and the average age of a house in 91911 east of I-805 is about 22 years. 90+% of these (91910, 91911) tracts (and customs) ARE NOT situated in CFD’s and therefore have no MR. Except for Rolling Hills Ranch (91914) and three small pockets of 91913 (1 MR pd off and 2 have no MR) ALL of the tracts in the heavily distressed zips of 91913, 91914 and 91915 have MR and (sometimes multiple) HOA’s affecting the properties within them. IMO, these substantial “extra monthly expenses” have greatly contributed to the downturn in value of these tracts and resultant softness in their micromarkets.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sunny88]There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?[/quote]

sunny88, regarding SFR’s, yes, there ARE current buyers for currently-marketed properties (in 91913, 91914 and 91915). However, much of the potential “inventory” within these zips is still in the shadows at present (with the delinquent trustor still occupying). I see up to another 20% downside to these tracts but the markdowns will be slow. Lenders will trickle them out one by one, so as not to market more than 2-3 of the same floorplan in a tract at the same time. In the banks’ way of thinking, this practice helps shore up their prices. The “bottom” will come within the next 3 – 3.5 years but by the time it’s here, there won’t be much inventory on the market to choose from.

To a much lesser extent, the values of RE in the zips of 91910 and 91911 could trend a little downward but it all depends on the amount of distressed inventory in those zips and there has not been nearly as much in 2010 as there was in 2009. The prevalence of REO’s in 91910 that I’ve run across this year has been very spotty. My particular area of dtn Chula is occupied by many free-and-clear resident owners and I haven’t noticed any REOs around here for about a year but have not really been looking for them.

The average age of a house in 91910 west of I-805 is 55 years and the average age of a house in 91910 east of I-805 is about 32 years. The average age of a house in 91911 west of I-805 is 45 years and the average age of a house in 91911 east of I-805 is about 22 years. 90+% of these (91910, 91911) tracts (and customs) ARE NOT situated in CFD’s and therefore have no MR. Except for Rolling Hills Ranch (91914) and three small pockets of 91913 (1 MR pd off and 2 have no MR) ALL of the tracts in the heavily distressed zips of 91913, 91914 and 91915 have MR and (sometimes multiple) HOA’s affecting the properties within them. IMO, these substantial “extra monthly expenses” have greatly contributed to the downturn in value of these tracts and resultant softness in their micromarkets.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sunny88]There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?[/quote]

sunny88, regarding SFR’s, yes, there ARE current buyers for currently-marketed properties (in 91913, 91914 and 91915). However, much of the potential “inventory” within these zips is still in the shadows at present (with the delinquent trustor still occupying). I see up to another 20% downside to these tracts but the markdowns will be slow. Lenders will trickle them out one by one, so as not to market more than 2-3 of the same floorplan in a tract at the same time. In the banks’ way of thinking, this practice helps shore up their prices. The “bottom” will come within the next 3 – 3.5 years but by the time it’s here, there won’t be much inventory on the market to choose from.

To a much lesser extent, the values of RE in the zips of 91910 and 91911 could trend a little downward but it all depends on the amount of distressed inventory in those zips and there has not been nearly as much in 2010 as there was in 2009. The prevalence of REO’s in 91910 that I’ve run across this year has been very spotty. My particular area of dtn Chula is occupied by many free-and-clear resident owners and I haven’t noticed any REOs around here for about a year but have not really been looking for them.

The average age of a house in 91910 west of I-805 is 55 years and the average age of a house in 91910 east of I-805 is about 32 years. The average age of a house in 91911 west of I-805 is 45 years and the average age of a house in 91911 east of I-805 is about 22 years. 90+% of these (91910, 91911) tracts (and customs) ARE NOT situated in CFD’s and therefore have no MR. Except for Rolling Hills Ranch (91914) and three small pockets of 91913 (1 MR pd off and 2 have no MR) ALL of the tracts in the heavily distressed zips of 91913, 91914 and 91915 have MR and (sometimes multiple) HOA’s affecting the properties within them. IMO, these substantial “extra monthly expenses” have greatly contributed to the downturn in value of these tracts and resultant softness in their micromarkets.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sunny88]There are tons of homes in CV now selling at 40% less than 4 years ago and there are no buyers… Is it possible that the prices will go down further, perhaps even another 20%?[/quote]

sunny88, regarding SFR’s, yes, there ARE current buyers for currently-marketed properties (in 91913, 91914 and 91915). However, much of the potential “inventory” within these zips is still in the shadows at present (with the delinquent trustor still occupying). I see up to another 20% downside to these tracts but the markdowns will be slow. Lenders will trickle them out one by one, so as not to market more than 2-3 of the same floorplan in a tract at the same time. In the banks’ way of thinking, this practice helps shore up their prices. The “bottom” will come within the next 3 – 3.5 years but by the time it’s here, there won’t be much inventory on the market to choose from.

To a much lesser extent, the values of RE in the zips of 91910 and 91911 could trend a little downward but it all depends on the amount of distressed inventory in those zips and there has not been nearly as much in 2010 as there was in 2009. The prevalence of REO’s in 91910 that I’ve run across this year has been very spotty. My particular area of dtn Chula is occupied by many free-and-clear resident owners and I haven’t noticed any REOs around here for about a year but have not really been looking for them.

The average age of a house in 91910 west of I-805 is 55 years and the average age of a house in 91910 east of I-805 is about 32 years. The average age of a house in 91911 west of I-805 is 45 years and the average age of a house in 91911 east of I-805 is about 22 years. 90+% of these (91910, 91911) tracts (and customs) ARE NOT situated in CFD’s and therefore have no MR. Except for Rolling Hills Ranch (91914) and three small pockets of 91913 (1 MR pd off and 2 have no MR) ALL of the tracts in the heavily distressed zips of 91913, 91914 and 91915 have MR and (sometimes multiple) HOA’s affecting the properties within them. IMO, these substantial “extra monthly expenses” have greatly contributed to the downturn in value of these tracts and resultant softness in their micromarkets.

[GH]

Chula Vista has some nice areas along the 125, but way too many houses built and sold during the bubble.

[GH]

Chula Vista has some nice areas along the 125, but way too many houses built and sold during the bubble.

[GH]

Chula Vista has some nice areas along the 125, but way too many houses built and sold during the bubble.

[GH]

Chula Vista has some nice areas along the 125, but way too many houses built and sold during the bubble.

[GH]

Chula Vista has some nice areas along the 125, but way too many houses built and sold during the bubble.

[ocrenter]

a lot of homes in 91914 and 91915 are all 50% off peak. that seem like the norm there.

maybe another 10% down? to get to 60% off peak. but how long is the wait for that extra 10% off? especially with interest rate already so low.

certainly there’s enough inventory there that one should not rush into things and take all the time one needs. but if someone finds that perfect house that’s already 50% off peak, it is going to be hard to hold off for that potential additional 10%.

[ocrenter]

a lot of homes in 91914 and 91915 are all 50% off peak. that seem like the norm there.

maybe another 10% down? to get to 60% off peak. but how long is the wait for that extra 10% off? especially with interest rate already so low.

certainly there’s enough inventory there that one should not rush into things and take all the time one needs. but if someone finds that perfect house that’s already 50% off peak, it is going to be hard to hold off for that potential additional 10%.

[Author]

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