price collapse in Chula Vista

[Jumby]

emsith, pacify me for a moment…

Give your predication on the bottom for something like this.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1354539

Keep in mind, no Mello Roos and no house behind you.

[Jumby]

emsith, pacify me for a moment…

Give your predication on the bottom for something like this.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1354539

Keep in mind, no Mello Roos and no house behind you.

[recordsclerk]

That is a very nice home, but I don’t think any Quintessa homes are worth 1.4mil. Castillian (neighbor) homes are just starting to have downward pressure due to loan resets/defaults and Quintessa homes are next. Quintessa came out a little after Castillian homes. From the map that lot is nice, but I don’t think there are any panoramic views of open space or the lake. I’ve been looking at homes in the 800K range for the past 60 days, so I’m very familiar with that area. There is still a lot of pent-up demand for this area, but the price has to be right. I would say that currently that home would sell for about 1 to 1.2 mil. As far as the future I’m not sure how far these homes will come down. There was a Quintessa (on the same street I think) with the same sqft and cassita listed for 925k-1.2mil that is currently pending. It does not have a pool or the nice hard scape. That would be a comp that you might want to keep your eye on. I hope that I didn’t affend anyone by answering a question that was not directed at me, but I thought that I might have some info to share.

[recordsclerk]

That is a very nice home, but I don’t think any Quintessa homes are worth 1.4mil. Castillian (neighbor) homes are just starting to have downward pressure due to loan resets/defaults and Quintessa homes are next. Quintessa came out a little after Castillian homes. From the map that lot is nice, but I don’t think there are any panoramic views of open space or the lake. I’ve been looking at homes in the 800K range for the past 60 days, so I’m very familiar with that area. There is still a lot of pent-up demand for this area, but the price has to be right. I would say that currently that home would sell for about 1 to 1.2 mil. As far as the future I’m not sure how far these homes will come down. There was a Quintessa (on the same street I think) with the same sqft and cassita listed for 925k-1.2mil that is currently pending. It does not have a pool or the nice hard scape. That would be a comp that you might want to keep your eye on. I hope that I didn’t affend anyone by answering a question that was not directed at me, but I thought that I might have some info to share.

[recordsclerk]

That is a very nice home, but I don’t think any Quintessa homes are worth 1.4mil. Castillian (neighbor) homes are just starting to have downward pressure due to loan resets/defaults and Quintessa homes are next. Quintessa came out a little after Castillian homes. From the map that lot is nice, but I don’t think there are any panoramic views of open space or the lake. I’ve been looking at homes in the 800K range for the past 60 days, so I’m very familiar with that area. There is still a lot of pent-up demand for this area, but the price has to be right. I would say that currently that home would sell for about 1 to 1.2 mil. As far as the future I’m not sure how far these homes will come down. There was a Quintessa (on the same street I think) with the same sqft and cassita listed for 925k-1.2mil that is currently pending. It does not have a pool or the nice hard scape. That would be a comp that you might want to keep your eye on. I hope that I didn’t affend anyone by answering a question that was not directed at me, but I thought that I might have some info to share.

[recordsclerk]

That is a very nice home, but I don’t think any Quintessa homes are worth 1.4mil. Castillian (neighbor) homes are just starting to have downward pressure due to loan resets/defaults and Quintessa homes are next. Quintessa came out a little after Castillian homes. From the map that lot is nice, but I don’t think there are any panoramic views of open space or the lake. I’ve been looking at homes in the 800K range for the past 60 days, so I’m very familiar with that area. There is still a lot of pent-up demand for this area, but the price has to be right. I would say that currently that home would sell for about 1 to 1.2 mil. As far as the future I’m not sure how far these homes will come down. There was a Quintessa (on the same street I think) with the same sqft and cassita listed for 925k-1.2mil that is currently pending. It does not have a pool or the nice hard scape. That would be a comp that you might want to keep your eye on. I hope that I didn’t affend anyone by answering a question that was not directed at me, but I thought that I might have some info to share.

[recordsclerk]

That is a very nice home, but I don’t think any Quintessa homes are worth 1.4mil. Castillian (neighbor) homes are just starting to have downward pressure due to loan resets/defaults and Quintessa homes are next. Quintessa came out a little after Castillian homes. From the map that lot is nice, but I don’t think there are any panoramic views of open space or the lake. I’ve been looking at homes in the 800K range for the past 60 days, so I’m very familiar with that area. There is still a lot of pent-up demand for this area, but the price has to be right. I would say that currently that home would sell for about 1 to 1.2 mil. As far as the future I’m not sure how far these homes will come down. There was a Quintessa (on the same street I think) with the same sqft and cassita listed for 925k-1.2mil that is currently pending. It does not have a pool or the nice hard scape. That would be a comp that you might want to keep your eye on. I hope that I didn’t affend anyone by answering a question that was not directed at me, but I thought that I might have some info to share.

[Jumby]

recordsclerk, thanks for sharing!

[Jumby]

recordsclerk, thanks for sharing!

[Jumby]

recordsclerk, thanks for sharing!

[Jumby]

recordsclerk, thanks for sharing!

[Jumby]

recordsclerk, thanks for sharing!

[betting on fall]

just to add two more (unsolicted) cents on that Quintessa area. . . .
Through my mother in law realtor, I have been able to review some pretty detailed MLS info on that area, including loan balances.

Nearly everyone- like 90%- of the owners have loans around $1m. So I think that area will be ground-zero for seeing the impact of pay-option ARMs. Certainly more than a few buyers don’t have the $250,000-$300,000 income needed to make a fully amortizing payment on $1m loan, plus taxes and hoa, and refinancing won’t be possible if there are some low comps and tighter standards.

So I think the real price drops in that area will be in about 3-4 years, when the full payments kick in on the loans.
It will be interesting to see how the community reacts when essentially everyone is upside down on their house.

[betting on fall]

just to add two more (unsolicted) cents on that Quintessa area. . . .
Through my mother in law realtor, I have been able to review some pretty detailed MLS info on that area, including loan balances.

Nearly everyone- like 90%- of the owners have loans around $1m. So I think that area will be ground-zero for seeing the impact of pay-option ARMs. Certainly more than a few buyers don’t have the $250,000-$300,000 income needed to make a fully amortizing payment on $1m loan, plus taxes and hoa, and refinancing won’t be possible if there are some low comps and tighter standards.

So I think the real price drops in that area will be in about 3-4 years, when the full payments kick in on the loans.
It will be interesting to see how the community reacts when essentially everyone is upside down on their house.

[betting on fall]

just to add two more (unsolicted) cents on that Quintessa area. . . .
Through my mother in law realtor, I have been able to review some pretty detailed MLS info on that area, including loan balances.

Nearly everyone- like 90%- of the owners have loans around $1m. So I think that area will be ground-zero for seeing the impact of pay-option ARMs. Certainly more than a few buyers don’t have the $250,000-$300,000 income needed to make a fully amortizing payment on $1m loan, plus taxes and hoa, and refinancing won’t be possible if there are some low comps and tighter standards.

So I think the real price drops in that area will be in about 3-4 years, when the full payments kick in on the loans.
It will be interesting to see how the community reacts when essentially everyone is upside down on their house.

[Author]

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