Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.
I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.
Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)
Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.
Actual: -27%
Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.
Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)
Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.
Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%
Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.
Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.
Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.
Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%
John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.
Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.
Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.
Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet
Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.
Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.
