Population Change

[admin]

Good UT story today covering population change.

With a net increase of 4,845 last year, there is another way to look at the numbers:

05′-06′
Natural Change
Births: +47,359 — 50% Hispanic (estimate)
Deaths: -19,685 — 70% White (estimate)

Migration
Foreign: +19,310 — 50% Hispanic (estimate)
Domestic: -42,034 — 85% white (estimate)
Illegal: +10,000 — 100% Hispanic (estimate)

Population Composition Change
+5,000 – Aprox White Change, Births vs. deaths
-37,000 – Whites who migrated out
——–
Loss of 32,000 whites

+20,000 – Approx Hispanic Change, births vs. Deaths
+10,000 – Approx illegal immigrant gain
+10,448 – Approx Hispanic legal in-migration
———
Gain of 40,000 Hispanics

Conclusion:

1)The total population change of +4,845 masks the underlying demographic changes. It is likely that San Diego lost 25-35,000 whites last year and gained 30-40,000 Hispanics, assuming only 10,000 illegals came in.

2)The 30-40,000 Hispanics were comprised of babies, illegal immigrants, unskilled migrants and a small percentage of skilled, educated Hispanic professionals.

3)The 30-40,000 whites lost were likely young professionals with families, middle aged professionals skilled laborers and retirees who died.

Note: The trends are clear, however my numbers above are far from exact.

[Cow_tipping]

Evidently from ~1.5 million in 2006 charlotte NC is going to grow to over 4.5 million in the next 20 years. All those people will be Illegal, so that this area will support itself on basis of that alone.
Yes … They were debating it on the radio.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[Anonymous]

It’s been obvious for a long time that the bulk of population increase in San Diego is due to low income migrants and their offspring. Now that subprime lending and stated income loans are going away, few of these folks will be buying any real estate.

[Bugs]

The taxpayers moving out of state include those who would have been in a position to buy properties. The non-taxpayers entering the population (including births) are almost irrelevant to the pricing of homes because they don’t participate in the sales market.

[Anonymous]

Nice back of the envelope work, juice.

The traffic on 5 continues to lighten; I’ve seen a real decrease in traffic on 5 North in the morning and 5 South in the evening ever since last summer.

The Census numbers are nine months old, and, since they are based on tax records, don’t fully account for illegal aliens.

Yep, folks — citizens and illegals — are leaving town.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The traffic on 5 continues to lighten; I’ve seen a real decrease in traffic on 5 North in the morning and 5 South in the evening ever since last summer.

A few more years of this and I’ll be ready to move back.

[no_such_reality]

Wow, LA/OC/SD lost over a quarter million domestic population.

Looks like a lot may have gone to the inland empire, but still, that’s a lot of people to lose in a year. In fact, roughly a 100,000 housing units worth of leaving. Roughly equal to the area home sales volume.

[Anonymous]

When you consider the growth of population in Riverside County who commute to San Diego, I wonder if there really is hope that traffic will get lighter.

In this age of master planned sprawl, it is nice to see that some places are actually losing people! I’m facinated by the demographics as well, as you have likely picked up on. It is facinating to me that the demographics have changed so much in just one year. It is the equivelant of taking an almost all white city like Encinitas (80% white) and making it all Hispanic in just one year.

[Cow_tipping]

I know that its well known that most white people prefer mostly white neighborhoods … as an injun, ironically most of my compatriots I seem to find flock to mostly white neighborhoods. They want Injun and white, however what I have seen is … that creates an undesirability for whites (to a certain extent, dont want to get bogged down in this or that or get bashed for being racist or calling white people racist) and they slowly flee, making the neighborhood truly mixed race – again percentages, I know some people will not flee, and whatever. Essentially creating the exact scenario the injuns wanted to avoid. Ok see my final target … anyway, just an off color (no pun intended) observation. I dont live in a white+injun only neighborhood, and I dont care to live in one either. I fit right in with anyone that looks at everyone as people. AKA, the working class.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[Duck]

You should note that LA County, Orange County, Cook County (Chicago) and two New York counties are even higher on the list. The quote that caught my eye was

“LA has had this profile for 20 years”

Doesn’t seem to have depressed their RE prices too much. San Diego has grown into a more mature metro area and a lot of the people leaving have just been priced out just like in Manhattan, the Westside of LA, Near North areas of Chicago and you’ll see that here in Coastal areas. It started in La Jolla and is slowly heading north. Oceanside will see a huge push to the east over the next 10 years.

[ucodegen]

The taxpayers moving out of state include those who would have been in a position to buy properties. The non-taxpayers entering the population (including births) are almost irrelevant to the pricing of homes because they don’t participate in the sales market.

Bingo.. something that politicians should really pay attention to. They look at all this migration (Hispanic) as a positive tax base (including illegal) to further support their ‘house of cards’. In reality, that is not true. It is mixed, but has a lower overall tax ‘yield’ than the population that is being chased out/leaving. In the mean time, they make the barriers to entry for other foreigners (who will generally be more educated) higher.

“LA has had this profile for 20 years”

That is why I don’t live there anymore. It has turned into a sewer. I see more and more roadside trash and garbage every time I visit. A large and increasing portion of the population have a strong sense of entitlement.

[Anonymous]

Add 5 more white people to the list of departures. I’m getting in my car on Monday and have no plans to ever return to San Diego. I have a college degree, wife has a college degree, and I plan to start a new life in a city where I can focus on the things that matter most and not on working 80 hour weeks so that I can fund somebody’s retirement by buying their tract home in Vista for 600k that they bought for 100k in 1999…only to then be so wrapped up in wealth and status that I decide I need a nicer home in Aviara, a better car, and more ‘stuff’ to keep up with the neighbors.

For months I have allowed myself to become angry about housing prices, spending hours researching the crash and complaining to my wife about the high cost of living here. It has made my angry, it has made me bitter, and it has made me feel like a second class citizen in my interactions with family, friends who own homes, and even random strangers. I never could have anticipated the psychological affects that this has had on me over time that include despair, anger, resentment, jealousy and on and on. Yes, the warning signs of depression – from a guy who is generally very happy, easy going and never been depressed in his life!

Yesterday, after reading the Purpose Driven Life by Rick Warren in one day, I decided that it was time to take action. Money and status mean nothing when your friends are looking down at your grave and talking about what you did with your life. They really mean nothing if you consider your life in the context of eternity. The fancy cars, huge mansions and glitzy sunglasses I see every day in North County mean nothing to me. They have lured me, they have tempted me, but at the end of the day I have overcome their pull. These trappings may provide comfort and a sense of success to some, but they have always turned me off since the early days when I came here from the Midwest to serve in the military. If that is your game – I wish you the best of luck and I realize that we are all motivated by different endeavers. Instead of spending my time trying to aquire money to fund a San Diego lifestyle, I will do these things instead:

-Move to a nice small/medium sized city with a university.
-Accept a government job, top 20% of local wages.
-Work 40 hours a week, 45 during busy weeks, 40 days off.
-Buy a 3500 sqft, home for $280,000 with a yard.
-Save $1,000 a month and also fund an IRA, 401k and 529.
-Keep my wife at home with the kids.
-Reduce my commute from 1 hour to 1 minute.
-Leave for work at 7:45 = see my kids mornings.
-Return home at 5:15 = see my kids evenings.
-Start a home based business of some sorts, someday.
-Get deeply involved in a church and community activities.
-Pursue an advanced degree, perhaps even a PHd.
-Pursue my passion for reading books and becomming a writer.
-Vacation in San Diego 2-3 times a year.

Not to get too philosophical on you, but by leaving San Diego I’m giving my family permission to focus on the things that matter most and I’m giving myself the breating room to pursue my passions and focus on service and family.
I’m sad to be leaving, but no longer angry. I’m already missing the sunshine, but also looking forward to writing my first novel and walking to work once, just because I can!

I plan to eat lots of Mexican food this weekend, walk by the ocean, visit with extended family, and at 5 a.m. on Monday leave and never look back.

[equalizer]

What a shame. Enjoy reading your posts. Just because you are probably 5 years too young, you are put in a horrible predicament. In 1999, after losing out on one condo offer after another, I put a deposit for another year lease. Luckily, (I think)I pulled back deposit the next day and we got into condo a few months later and then upgraded to a house. Otherwise, I would have left just like you. I think most of us at this board are very conservative and didn’t buy a boatload of investment homes. It turns out the masses who didn’t think ending with the big profits, at least more than 2 years ago.

I have lived in several cities, Chicago, Detroit, Sandusky(OH). I think you may like Ann Arbor, MI if the prices aren’t too high. I know the Detroit suburbs are very nice and very affordable.
If we haven’t had our meetup for this quarter it would be nice to meet to hook up.

Good luck.

[poorgradstudent]

I hope these trends continue.

With all the potential homebuyers and competition for jobs leavning, I should be able to actually afford a home in a few years!

[Happy renter]

FYI

Between July 2005 and July 2006, 42,034 more people moved from San Diego County to other places in the country than came here from elsewhere in the nation, according to county population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. That put San Diego eighth in the nation among counties with high domestic out-migration.

Since 2000, the net number of people who moved out of the county is even more staggering – 119,636, a figure greater than Carlsbad’s population.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070322-9999-1n22census.html

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