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svelte.
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March 2, 2009 at 9:52 PM #359552March 2, 2009 at 9:59 PM #358984
gandalf
Participantpartypup, would you suggest I invest in some ‘bling’? Heavy gold chains hanging around my neck would go well with the long beard and flowing robe. I might even be able to obtain some ‘Magic Bling’…
Moreover, bling purchased at today’s market prices could be expected to appreciate quite nicely in the years ahead. Something to consider, I suppose…
March 2, 2009 at 9:59 PM #359285Participantpartypup, would you suggest I invest in some ‘bling’? Heavy gold chains hanging around my neck would go well with the long beard and flowing robe. I might even be able to obtain some ‘Magic Bling’…
Moreover, bling purchased at today’s market prices could be expected to appreciate quite nicely in the years ahead. Something to consider, I suppose…
March 2, 2009 at 9:59 PM #359428Participantpartypup, would you suggest I invest in some ‘bling’? Heavy gold chains hanging around my neck would go well with the long beard and flowing robe. I might even be able to obtain some ‘Magic Bling’…
Moreover, bling purchased at today’s market prices could be expected to appreciate quite nicely in the years ahead. Something to consider, I suppose…
March 2, 2009 at 9:59 PM #359464Participantpartypup, would you suggest I invest in some ‘bling’? Heavy gold chains hanging around my neck would go well with the long beard and flowing robe. I might even be able to obtain some ‘Magic Bling’…
Moreover, bling purchased at today’s market prices could be expected to appreciate quite nicely in the years ahead. Something to consider, I suppose…
March 2, 2009 at 9:59 PM #359567Participantpartypup, would you suggest I invest in some ‘bling’? Heavy gold chains hanging around my neck would go well with the long beard and flowing robe. I might even be able to obtain some ‘Magic Bling’…
Moreover, bling purchased at today’s market prices could be expected to appreciate quite nicely in the years ahead. Something to consider, I suppose…
March 2, 2009 at 10:27 PM #358994TheBreeze
Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
March 2, 2009 at 10:27 PM #359295Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
March 2, 2009 at 10:27 PM #359438Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
March 2, 2009 at 10:27 PM #359474Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
March 2, 2009 at 10:27 PM #359577Participant[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
March 2, 2009 at 10:46 PM #359020Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantPartypup: Well written, cogent post. The problem here is the readers go from “complete normalcy” to “Mad Max” in one sudden movement. I agree with your assessment as to the unlikelihood of that situation and I would point readers to the LA Riots of 1992 or Hurricane Katrina in terms of how quickly the wheels can come off the wagon.
I was here during the Fallbrook/Rice Canyon Fire and chose to stay rather than evacuate. I recall having a Marine Humvee patrolling my neighborhood with a gunner up top behind a loaded .50cal. I can also recall having coffee at the nearly deserted Starbucks with a CHP officer and a SD Sheriff, both of whom told me to shoot first and ask questions later as far as encountering anyone I didn’t know in my neighborhood. I live in a quiet cul-de-sac near downtown Fallbrook and I’m not out in the sticks. The Sheriff was blunt in terms of local law enforcement being “stretched thin” and having to ask Camp Pendleton for help in maintaining order and preventing looters. Their handling of the evac was exemplary and the locals were orderly and well behaved and it still stretched their resources to the limit.
I remember watching news footage of LAPD’s handling of South Central during the LA Riots in 1992 and realizing that they had completely ceded control to the mob. It doesn’t take much to get there. The idea that the police and the National Guard are capable of handling widespread civil unrest and rioting is simply not true.
I hope things don’t get sideways, but it seems prudent to be prepared for them if they do.
March 2, 2009 at 10:46 PM #359320ParticipantPartypup: Well written, cogent post. The problem here is the readers go from “complete normalcy” to “Mad Max” in one sudden movement. I agree with your assessment as to the unlikelihood of that situation and I would point readers to the LA Riots of 1992 or Hurricane Katrina in terms of how quickly the wheels can come off the wagon.
I was here during the Fallbrook/Rice Canyon Fire and chose to stay rather than evacuate. I recall having a Marine Humvee patrolling my neighborhood with a gunner up top behind a loaded .50cal. I can also recall having coffee at the nearly deserted Starbucks with a CHP officer and a SD Sheriff, both of whom told me to shoot first and ask questions later as far as encountering anyone I didn’t know in my neighborhood. I live in a quiet cul-de-sac near downtown Fallbrook and I’m not out in the sticks. The Sheriff was blunt in terms of local law enforcement being “stretched thin” and having to ask Camp Pendleton for help in maintaining order and preventing looters. Their handling of the evac was exemplary and the locals were orderly and well behaved and it still stretched their resources to the limit.
I remember watching news footage of LAPD’s handling of South Central during the LA Riots in 1992 and realizing that they had completely ceded control to the mob. It doesn’t take much to get there. The idea that the police and the National Guard are capable of handling widespread civil unrest and rioting is simply not true.
I hope things don’t get sideways, but it seems prudent to be prepared for them if they do.
March 2, 2009 at 10:46 PM #359463ParticipantPartypup: Well written, cogent post. The problem here is the readers go from “complete normalcy” to “Mad Max” in one sudden movement. I agree with your assessment as to the unlikelihood of that situation and I would point readers to the LA Riots of 1992 or Hurricane Katrina in terms of how quickly the wheels can come off the wagon.
I was here during the Fallbrook/Rice Canyon Fire and chose to stay rather than evacuate. I recall having a Marine Humvee patrolling my neighborhood with a gunner up top behind a loaded .50cal. I can also recall having coffee at the nearly deserted Starbucks with a CHP officer and a SD Sheriff, both of whom told me to shoot first and ask questions later as far as encountering anyone I didn’t know in my neighborhood. I live in a quiet cul-de-sac near downtown Fallbrook and I’m not out in the sticks. The Sheriff was blunt in terms of local law enforcement being “stretched thin” and having to ask Camp Pendleton for help in maintaining order and preventing looters. Their handling of the evac was exemplary and the locals were orderly and well behaved and it still stretched their resources to the limit.
I remember watching news footage of LAPD’s handling of South Central during the LA Riots in 1992 and realizing that they had completely ceded control to the mob. It doesn’t take much to get there. The idea that the police and the National Guard are capable of handling widespread civil unrest and rioting is simply not true.
I hope things don’t get sideways, but it seems prudent to be prepared for them if they do.
March 2, 2009 at 10:46 PM #359499ParticipantPartypup: Well written, cogent post. The problem here is the readers go from “complete normalcy” to “Mad Max” in one sudden movement. I agree with your assessment as to the unlikelihood of that situation and I would point readers to the LA Riots of 1992 or Hurricane Katrina in terms of how quickly the wheels can come off the wagon.
I was here during the Fallbrook/Rice Canyon Fire and chose to stay rather than evacuate. I recall having a Marine Humvee patrolling my neighborhood with a gunner up top behind a loaded .50cal. I can also recall having coffee at the nearly deserted Starbucks with a CHP officer and a SD Sheriff, both of whom told me to shoot first and ask questions later as far as encountering anyone I didn’t know in my neighborhood. I live in a quiet cul-de-sac near downtown Fallbrook and I’m not out in the sticks. The Sheriff was blunt in terms of local law enforcement being “stretched thin” and having to ask Camp Pendleton for help in maintaining order and preventing looters. Their handling of the evac was exemplary and the locals were orderly and well behaved and it still stretched their resources to the limit.
I remember watching news footage of LAPD’s handling of South Central during the LA Riots in 1992 and realizing that they had completely ceded control to the mob. It doesn’t take much to get there. The idea that the police and the National Guard are capable of handling widespread civil unrest and rioting is simply not true.
I hope things don’t get sideways, but it seems prudent to be prepared for them if they do.
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