OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[FlyerInHi]

Jeb, fiorina and O’malley are the biggest losers.

Fiorina flew out and didn’t even attend her own rally. Her supporters must feel like suckers.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Jeb, fiorina and O’malley are the biggest losers.

Fiorina flew out and didn’t even attend her own rally. Her supporters must feel like suckers.[/quote]

Well, unless you count Huckabee as an obvious loser. But going from a zero percent chance to Out isn’t a big loss.

Fiorina not attending her own rally is a classless move.

[poorgradstudent]

I’m going to call Ben Carson a big winner, because, seriously, how did he ever get 9% of the vote in Iowa?

[paramount]

Interesting in that I think that the best dem lost: O’Malley.

[livinincali]

Rand Paul just did the smart thing and dropped out. No point in burning up more money on a fruitless campaign. I don’t know how anybody donates anymore money to the Republican non-top 4 but maybe Jeb’s cash furnace will run long enough to get him back into a the mix a bit. The best thing for the establishment, that doesn’t want Trump, is to get these not going anywhere campaigns out of the way quickly.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=livinincali]Rand Paul just did the smart thing and dropped out. No point in burning up more money on a fruitless campaign. I don’t know how anybody donates anymore money to the Republican non-top 4 but maybe Jeb’s cash furnace will run long enough to get him back into a the mix a bit. The best thing for the establishment, that doesn’t want Trump, is to get these not going anywhere campaigns out of the way quickly.[/quote]

Rand Paul is also up for Senate re-election in 2016, and he probably wanted to shore up his position there, and not spend too much time looking like a loser on the national stage.

Paul’s supporters may split up in more interesting ways than some other candidates. I imagine there’s a few “Paul or Bust!” younger Republicans. I also imagine a few may side with Trump.

Small as their support was, the Huckabee and Santorum voters almost certainly won’t like Trump; although he panders to the religious right, for a true Social Conservative his positions are going to look muddled. Cruz or Rubio could both gobble up their support, but even Carson could.

[livinincali]

[quote=poorgradstudent]
Small as their support was, the Huckabee and Santorum voters almost certainly won’t like Trump; although he panders to the religious right, for a true Social Conservative his positions are going to look muddled. Cruz or Rubio could both gobble up their support, but even Carson could.[/quote]

Huckabeee just dropped out as well. I expect Santorum to be not too far behind him. Looks like Cruz just admitted to get caught for spreading false information about Carson dropping out right before the caucus. Not sure what the fallout will be.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/ted-cruz-ben-carson-apology/

[svelte]

[quote=no_such_reality][quote=svelte]Let’s see.

Iowa didn’t pick the eventual Republican nominee in 2012:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa

Or in 2008:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html

And did in 2004 only because Bush ran unopposed in the Republican party.

Not so sure Iowa’s results tell us much.[/quote]

Actually Iowa told Us tons. It effectively identified three candidates on the repub side with the rest not garnering 25% collectively and the highest 9%. It also showed Rubio strong in the population centers.
[/quote]

Top three candidates were Cruz, Trump, Rubio. Rest in the noise. Exactly what the polls told us before Iowa.

As I said, didn’t tell us much.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=paramount][quote=flu]Well it looks like Cruz is going to win Iowa.[/quote]

Thankfully…

BTW, pay no attention to Iowa.

The Iowa process is ridiculous, focused on ethanol and not much more.

Does anyone even understand how the Iowa ‘voting’ process truly works?[/quote]

True that!!! And what svelte said about Iowa’s track record. Iowa has about as many people as San Diego County and does not have a demographic representation of the country as a whole. This thread was not about your personal choice nor was it about what might happen if congress gets to pick, it was a prediction thread.

When I make predictions, I try to take my emotions out of it and make observations. I have an advantage, I have a mother who has voted in every election she was eligible to and she has never not voted for the winner in the presidential election, can’t say the same about myself or my father. She’s nearing 70 so that’s 50 years of a perfect record. Dad and I both picked Ross Perot and pops liked Ron Paul. But mom is a flip flopper, changing her party affiliation before primaries and for 50 years she’s picked correctly. I’ll let you know who she picks, but thus far she has issues with Hillary so I’m doubting that will be her pick. My suspicion is Bernie if he holds up. She’s lucky because she has lived in California her whole life and our primary is like picking the Superbowl winner in the 4th quarter.

But my new observation is the future Mrs. TG, she’s the opposite of mom in that she is in her late 40’s and this will be her first time voting despite being born in California. She watched the 1st republican debate and registered as a republican because she loved it and fell for some of the candidates. She had seen debates in the past but this one inspired her and scared her at the same time. I just watched, knowing I had another person to observe and learn from. I know what I think, but I’m smart enough to know I am not the majority. Observing others helped me time the real estate market and make other financial choices, mostly to my benefit. Observing without judging will help you make predictions.

But the night of the Iowa caucus she began to fully understand the primary process and she started to get angry. She got angry that Cali goes near the end and places like Iowa and New Hampshire have undue influence. I believe she said “screw it, by the time I get to vote, my favorite might already be out, that’s crap, we should all vote at the same time.”

After an hour of explanation, her was response was “It’s still crap.” To which I have no argument, it is crap. An hour later my daughter called from college to brag about Bernie’s results, enter woman # three for my non scientific observational experiment. She’s volunteering to sign up voters and will probably campaign for Bernie.

Here are the informal results, Fiance likes Trump, Rubio, Christie and Kasich on the repub side, Bernie on the Dem side. Daughter is Bernie all the way and mom is still deliberating (but she is key, the other two are rookies). Daughter hates everyone not named Bernie, Fiance hates Rand Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina and Hillary. Mom has issues with Hillary, but she keeps her opinion quiet until almost post time.

All 3 were disgusted by Cruz’ shady tactics in Iowa.

My predictions, Cruz gets some serious backlash and Hillary falters as time goes on, the more people hear her, the less they trust her or like her.

My wager-Bernie vs. Rubio or Trump, yet I think hillary’s machine may get her the nomination. so I would hold back any real wager.

What I want, that doesn’t matter and I do not need to tell you because I do not live in Iowa so I do not caucus. I would love to see trump and bernie go head to head or on the same ticket so we can try an experiment in either direction and see if it works. But I’ll wait for mom to weigh in since she has a better track record than the state of Iowa.

[utcsox]

Bump. Here is what Senator Marco Rubio did tonight. I still think he will win the nomination and the presidency.

[equalizer]

[quote=utcsox]Bump. Here is what Senator Marco Rubio did tonight. I still think he will win the nomination and the presidency.
[/quote]
Nothing but soundbites from this guy, but hey that’s what wins.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie joined the chorus.

“We know who the boy in the bubble is up here who never answers your questions, who’s constantly scripted and controlled because he can’t answer your questions,” Christie said. “So when Sen. Rubio gets here, when the boy in the bubble gets here, I hope you ask him some questions.”

Host: Why are you in third place in your own state of FL?
Rubio: “Hillary is bad, Bernie should run in Sweden”.
Rhodes Scholar material.

Newscorp and friends have started an all out attack on Trump and are pushing Rubio spin. Tough to fight the MSM that Newscorp has become.

Trump needs to go back to
mid-August (2015) statement on his campaign website: “Mark Zuckerberg’s personal Senator, Marco Rubio, has a bill to triple H-1Bs that would decimate women and minorities.” Did Zuckerberg scare Trump into denial of his statement??

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=utcsox]Bump. Here is what Senator Marco Rubio did tonight. I still think he will win the nomination and the presidency.

[/quote]

I watched the whole republican debate last night.
Rubio is clearly not that bright.

If we’re talking intelligence, Ted Cruz is clearly superior.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=equalizer][quote=utcsox]Bump. Here is what Senator Marco Rubio did tonight. I still think he will win the nomination and the presidency.
[/quote]

Host: Why are you in third place in your own state of FL?
Rubio: “Hillary is bad, Bernie should run in Sweden”.
Rhodes Scholar material.

Newscorp and friends have started an all out attack on Trump and are pushing Rubio spin. Tough to fight the MSM that Newscorp has become.

Trump needs to go back to
mid-August (2015) statement on his campaign website: “Mark Zuckerberg’s personal Senator, Marco Rubio, has a bill to triple H-1Bs that would decimate women and minorities.” Did Zuckerberg scare Trump into denial of his statement??[/quote]

Sweden with a Southern California climate sounds pretty appealing.

[FlyerInHi]

wow, I’m surprised how much money Ben Carson raised. Who the heck are his supporters?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html

[utcsox]

[quote=FlyerInHi]wow, I’m surprised how much money Ben Carson raised. Who the heck are his supporters?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html%5B/quote%5D

Evangelical.

[Author]

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