OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[bearishgurl]

[quote=njtosd][quote=FlyerInHi]Other issues having to with be wealth gap are
Assortive mating
Delayed child bearing among the more educated and wealthier classes, so their kids start off with more advantages.
Better health and higher life expectancy at the top.
All that translate to higher inheritances over generations.[/quote]

Higher life expectancy would tend to cause a diminution of resources, wouldn’t it? More years of car payments (or purchases), electricity and food – and generally during the non-earning years.

Assertive mating has always occurred.[/quote]I agree with the italicized part. A long, long life (past 90 years) frequently leads to long term care which families can’t easily provide themselves. In SD County, these “Memory Care Centers” and other decent long term care centers cost $7500 – $9500 month, which can easily deplete the elder’s cash resources of $1M or more in 7-10 years (with some annual price hikes) due to poor interest rates over the past decade for CDs and money-market accounts.

And those who “think” they’re going to quitclaim their RE to their children immediately before checking into long-term care in order to put it on Medi-Cal/Medicaid’s tab (or check in as self-pay to “get accepted” and a few months later, attempt to go on the public dole) better think again. Medicaid uses a 5-year “lookback period” for RE transfers and if any of them occurred less than 5 years before the elder’s Medicaid application, the transfer is considered “fraudulent” and the app will be denied.

In any case, the “better” facilities usually don’t accept Med-Cal/Medicaid.

Round the clock home companions don’t come cheap, either. I have two neighbors with elderly parents still living in their homes (same neighborhood) who are paying 2 separate caregivers to provide round-the-clock care and companionship for their elderly parent. Of course, just two caregivers have to cover 7 days per week so they get room and board as well on their shifts and trade off with one another.

In SD County, “poor” elders with zero assets who rent or own only their residence and no other real property can avail themselves of IHSS if they do not need nursing services, which will NOT lien their property for services provided to them.

http://www.sandiegocounty.gov/hhsa/programs/ais/inhome_supportive_services/

These workers can be the elder’s own relatives or someone else but the program does NOT pay enough to a non-relative for round-the-clock care. In this case, a nearby relative of a low-income elder needing round-the-clock care would have to be willing to serve as caregiver a couple of days per week and overnights and some errands for “free” as a supplement to the IHSS worker.

Living until 95 or older will most certainly deplete anyone’s resources (“rich,” middle class, or poor). A “prospective heir” just needs to be appreciative that their remaining parent lived a long life, especially if they were able to stay in their own home until the end and had the funds available to pay caregivers. That’s all many people can really hope for. No one is entitled to an inheritance.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=livinincali]

If the republican party does anything that isn’t nominating Trump and backing him hard they’re are likely to lose the election in a landslide. If they do nominate Trump and get behind him I think we could see an interesting close election.[/quote]

And the winner is Trump. If he wins the White House, he’s a huge winner. But if he loses, either the nomination or the presidency, he will blame the “elite” party establishment. Kinda brilliant on his part.

I read that, in order to win the White House, Trump needs about 20% of the black vote. Blacks have been hurt by free trade so he could win some of them by promising to rip up trade agreements. But his campaign is seen as too much driven by disaffected Whites.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . But as the Trump phenomenon shows, there is a whole class of low-skill people who disdain education because they feel looked down upon by the educated “elite.” So their defense mechanism it to be against education. These people want an impossible return to a world where a C level high-school education allowed entry into the middle class. And the irony is that they call that “hard work.” . . . [/quote]Um FIH, I don’t know where you heard this but nobody really “disdains education.” Even middle-aged and older people who never received a complete college education (me included) are making sure our kids recieve(d) one. The world needs plumbers, electricians, drywallers, bricklayers, auto alignment, auto body and other auto specialists, etc, just as much as it needs “white collar” workers. And maybe more in many areas where the vast majority of parents are automatically “pushing” their kids into the “4-year college track.”

At the prices these “blue-collar” workers command (esp if a biz owner or part-business-owner), you’re damned straight that they live their own “elite” lives. Many (most?) of them probably make more than you or an “engineer” does, FIH!

The truth is that a college education wasn’t needed to live a decent middle-class life up through about the early 2000’s. Yes, even in SD! And student loans did not exist before the early-mid nineties which were large enough to cover “living expenses” on top of tuition, fees and books. The presence of those loans has been the only reason HS graduates from families of all income levels have been able to attend a four-year college away from home. Prior to that, if your family couldn’t “afford” for you to attend college away from home and you couldn’t get into your local university while living “at home,” then a HS senior’s counselor would simply counsel them into an ROP program or other private, low-cost occupational school in which they could obtain a certificate to work in a particular field in 4-12 months.

Now, nearly EVERY HS senior gets counseled to apply for university and assistance with their applications, if necessary. And many, also go into exorbitant debt after they are admitted.

For example, in most cases, a low-income HS graduate is better off financially after training for practically “free” as an HVAC technician for 12 months in a ROP program at their local CC than if they borrowed $20K or more per year to attend a four-year institution (which, in CA, could take 5-6 years to graduate from) only to graduate into a stagnant or “sewed-up” local job market in their field and with no money left with which to relocate with. In addition, the clock is ticking cuz their student loan payments will start in six months. If they borrowed $100K in Federally-backed “Sallie Mae” loans, their monthly payments could easily be $650 – $750!

That’s a lot of money when you don’t yet have a decent job, a decent vehicle, decent work clothing or money for a plane fare to go on a job interview out of area.

brian, I have to tell you that I’m tired of reading your “rhetoric” about Trump supporters being “angry white hicks who begrudge people that `made it.'” They’re not all “white,” they’re not all “hicks,” they’re not all male, and, believe it or not, most of them are doing just fine financially, even if the factories with all the “good jobs” left their area and moved to China or MX.

I know it might be a stretch for you to envision this but a lot of those folks who have lived in America’s heartland their entire lives have many, many resources available to them. The majority are living in the same general area which they grew up in and have family all around who will give them jobs in their businesses. They hunt and fish for food and freeze it and trade farm/homegrown food with neighbors and relatives. Most of them don’t have mortgages over $1000 mo (PITI) and that is high in many areas. By 40-45 years old, their mortgage is typically paid off so if they got “laid off” from their “lifetime union job” after that, their situation isn’t as dire as one might think. And the women (incl “wives”) work their a$$es off (many FT and also on farms) and also drive big trucks and heavy equipment if they have to to survive. In addition, they can together during the harvest season and put up everything in mason jars in their tornado shelters and trade with each other so everyone has a mix of fruits and vegetables. In short, they are very resourceful and hardy bunch of folks who don’t feel that they are any “less” of a person than a college graduate.

Unlike CA urban dwellers, most of these “flyover country dwellers” are much too proud to take “welfare” unless they are truly down and out and need “food stamps” to feed their kids and then consider it only “temporary.”

At the end of the day, the PhD (professor) and JD (lawyer) and their students, clerks/secretaries/paralegals (with assoc degrees or less) all use the same public restrooms. No one is “better” than another by virtue of having more education. Yes, aside from becoming qualified to work in a profession, four years at university away from home DID mature my kids (I can see a big difference in the maturity of my youngest already, who is currently a sophomore) but this is only because they were somewhat cloistered and “coddled” while attending K-12 public school (I didn’t have much control over this). But most kids who start out after HS graduation with little or nothing had to mature much faster as teens by necessity. That’s how it was 45 years ago, when I was a teen and that’s how it is today. That doesn’t mean these lower-income kids who might decide to enroll in an ROP program are “lesser people” than their brethren who are currently attending university.

[an]

40% of Republicans say they wouldn’t vote for Trump. They numbers are abysmal for Trump with minorities and women. At this point, I would like to see Trump get nominated and Hillary win by an landslide that we haven’t seen since Reagan.

[bearishgurl]

Copying this post from the “Reasons I cannot vote for Trump” thread to here, where it belongs:

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 27, 2016 – 6:05pm.

OK, I’m going to stick my neck out here and make predictions on the rest of the primaries which have not yet been conducted.

Republican Primaries:

Trump takes: CA, OR, MT, ND, SD, NM, WV and NJ

Tossup (very close): Trump and Kasich for IN

Cruz takes: KY

************************************************

Democratic Primaries:

Clinton takes: CA, IN, KY and WV

Sanders takes: OR, MT, ND and SD

Tossup: NM and NJ

************************************************

Comments are welcome!

[FlyerInHi]

BG, low education doesn’t make one less-human. But low education does make one less educated and less knowledgeable. Not always because one can learn on one’s own.

Highly educated folks are generally more intellectually curious and knowledgeable.

Don’t take it personally. I’m talking generally about the demographics that are driving Trump’s momentum. Here’s an interesting article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/24/the-nasty-effect-and-why-donald-trump-supporters-mistrust-the-media/

And BG, you’re being contradictory. If blue collar Whites were doing well, they wouldn’t be discontented and fueling Trump’s rise.

Yes, I know that plumbers and tradesmen can make good money. That’s why I learned to do plumbing so I can remodel my own baths and kitchens. I can easily reroute the shower head to the ceiling for an upscale rain-shower effect. 😉

As far a federal dependency/welfare, here is some interesting info:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/#red-vs-blue

BTW, being street smart (or having street maturity) is not necessary a marketable skill that can land one a good job.

And “lesser” is relative. It’s a tough reality, but people who earn less are “lesser.”

I find it ironic that Jeff Session, a Trump supporter recently said this:

The American people are not Darwinian. We’re not Randian, in a total, brutal survival of the fittest.

The truth is that Republicans have been worshiping Darwin and Rand for decades. And Trump is all about winning.

So Trump supporters are the insecure White lower to middle middle class. They turn to a Darwinian billionaire as their savior.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . I read that, in order to win the White House, Trump needs about 20% of the black vote. Blacks have been hurt by free trade so he could win some of them by promising to rip up trade agreements. But his campaign is seen as too much driven by disaffected Whites.[/quote]

FIH, your (italicized) statement may have been true up to 2-3 months ago but I don’t think it is true today. Example: I thought most millienials intended to vote for Bernie (like my kids say they’ll do). Not so, according to this funny video. Kids come in at 1:30:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/03/16/watch_samantha_bee_meets_a_diverse_group_of_educated_millennial_trump_supporters.html#!

Edit: Here’s another one that the MSM hasn’t bothered to mention:

http://vidmax.com/video/138927-Compilation-of-Trump-supporters-shows-the-wide-ranging-diversity-the-media-keeps-trying-to-hide

Edit #2: This one is great!

http://frankvaughan.ca/index.php/2016/03/07/video-trump-diversity-3/

[joec]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=livinincali]

If the republican party does anything that isn’t nominating Trump and backing him hard they’re are likely to lose the election in a landslide. If they do nominate Trump and get behind him I think we could see an interesting close election.[/quote]

And the winner is Trump. If he wins the White House, he’s a huge winner. But if he loses, either the nomination or the presidency, he will blame the “elite” party establishment. Kinda brilliant on his part.

I read that, in order to win the White House, Trump needs about 20% of the black vote. Blacks have been hurt by free trade so he could win some of them by promising to rip up trade agreements. But his campaign is seen as too much driven by disaffected Whites.[/quote]

One thing to always remember is that we elect our president by the electoral college. At the end of the day, only a few states will decide the election. Depending on those states which are swing states, our president is selected. I believe Trump, with how the past free trade deals have gone may take some blue states that supported democrats in the past (like Bernie taking Michigan)…

Also, a lot of the African American state votes in the deep south, I think when I was looking at it hasn’t voted for a democrat in like 30-50 years. Maybe they will switch now, but if you look at the chart, most likely won’t go Clinton neither.

I also wonder for an African American, would they actually like immigrants and Latinos considering they probably feel they are taking their lower income job?

All that said, women are the big problem since he is at a much lower desirability than 2012 with Romney.

It’s also unknown how Bernie’s supporters will vote. I know personally, I won’t vote for Hillary so I will probably not vote at all, and if the 8 or 9 million decide to stay home who are Bernie supporters, that would hurt Hillary a lot sin

I also know “educated” “professional” “well-paid” people supporting Trump for various reasons. Like people who support Hillary just to not vote Trump, you have the people who will vote Trump just to not see Hillary win.

Honestly, what I would REALLY like to see is both Trump AND Bernie Sanders run independent campaigns against Cruz and Hillary. That’d be a sight to see. Bernie can fund raise over the Internet, Trump may/can do the same with his supporters perhaps…

I have said it before, but our system is rigged since only a Republican or Democrat can win. In a lot of primaries, you can’t even vote unless you are registered as a dem or rep so ultimately, for the 50% of people who are independent or non-partisan voters, you are left with little/no choice to run your nation.

When studies were done on this, it was shown that it was simply impossible to run and win as a third party candidate due to how the rules are set and this is why both Trump and Sanders are running for the republican/democratic nomination to begin with when they both probably, on the issues are independent…

I say all 4 should just run and see who wins that vote…

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl] I thought most millienials intended to vote for Bernie (like my kids say they’ll do). Not so, according to this funny video. [/quote]

BG, sounds like you’re a Trump supporter and your kids support Bernie Sanders. I believe the situation is very common. If you don’t mind sharing, let us know who each member of your family votes for in November.

Here’s an interesting article on millennials.
http://wapo.st/1XXuWNV

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl] I thought most millienials intended to vote for Bernie (like my kids say they’ll do). Not so, according to this funny video. [/quote]

BG, sounds like you’re a Trump supporter and your kids support Bernie Sanders. I believe the situation is very common. If you don’t mind sharing, let us know who each member of your family votes for in November.

Here’s an interesting article on millennials.
http://wapo.st/1XXuWNV%5B/quote%5D

I was actually leaning towards Cruz (who stated his top priority after entering office was to immediately set about dismantling the ACA) but I now feel he has no chance at the nomination. Trump is the next best thing. I DO like the idea of a wall and I DO believe that he can force MX to pay for most if not all of it and at the end of the day, they will. CA (and especially SD County) has been literally crushed under “unfunded mandates” to “illegal aliens” for decades. For example, you cannot even imagine how many tens of thousands of them are taking up space in our state prison system at $40K++ annually per head. It’s astronomical.

Haha, my youngest (age 19) registered to vote after the holidays on their campus but told me when they were home on spring break that they registered as an “Independent” but intended to vote for Bernie in the primary. I had to tell them that if they wanted to vote for Bernie, that they had to be registered as a Dem and offered to show them how to do it online. Apparently, there are people on their campus handing out voter registration apps nearly every day and collecting them at tables set up so it is very easy to register and re-register in between classes. I was told they’ll probably continue to do this after the primaries when we see who gets nominated to run for Prez!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]
I was actually leaning towards Cruz (who stated his top priority after entering office was to immediately set about dismantling the ACA) but I now feel he has no chance at the nomination. Trump is the next best thing. [/quote]

Cruz said he will immediately reverse Obama’s executive orders: DACA, DAPA, Cuba normalization, etc…

“Lucifer in the flesh”, “most miserable son of a bitch” is how Boehner called Cruz. Love the creative language.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/29/ted-cruz-is-lucifer-in-the-flesh-says-former-speaker-john-boehner

Did you notice that Cruz does that little learning forward motion for emphasis?

And Trump gesticulate when the talks. The way he move his arms and the motion of his shoulders… looks like a drag queen.

I find the way Sanders points as he talks annoying.

[bearishgurl]

Ok, the following are MY predictions, NOT a pundit’s!

RNC

Trump will be the “presumptive nominee” with 1382 delegate votes.

Cruz will have 610 votes and Kasich will have 199 votes (if he’s still around by then).

These numbers don’t take into account the votes of the apparent 162 unbound roaming delegates from PA who will be on the convention floor.

DNC

Clinton will be the presumptive nominee with 2945 delegate votes.

Sanders will have 1648 votes.

Not sure if that includes the math of all the “Superdelegates” cuz I don’t quite understand how to figure all that out. But it doesn’t change anything.

**************************************************

We’ll see how close I am on June 8 or thereabouts :=0

[FlyerInHi]

BG, your changing to R will have an impact. This year, California will be very important in the nomination process.

It will be interesting to watch.

[no_such_reality]

Here’s my prediction.

On Wednesday November 9, 2016, roughly 1/3rd of of our country is going to be really pissed off.

If Trump wins, they’re be stuff getting smashed and protests in the streets.

If Hillary wins, they’re be more of the bitter animosity that has plagued President Obama.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality]Here’s my prediction.

On Wednesday November 9, 2016, roughly 1/3rd of of our country is going to be really pissed off.

If Trump wins, they’re be stuff getting smashed and protests in the streets.

If Hillary wins, they’re be more of the bitter animosity that has plagued President Obama.[/quote]

Sounds like a lose-lose proposition :=0

[Author]

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