OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[svelte]

[quote=ltsdd]Rubio is done.
Kasich is done (mathematically) and should also drop out.

It’ll come down Cruz vs Trump. I think most of the Rubio and Kasich’s votes will go to the lesser of the two evils and that would be Cruz.

I’ll go out on the limb and say that Cruz will get the nomination.[/quote]

That is probably the most likely scenario, I agree.

And the math seems to work out. Currently Trump has 678, pooling the other three yields 730 (423 + 164 + 143).

So that could work, unless Trump increases his share of the total delegates as more primaries occur.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/

[bearishgurl]

Well, people, it looks as though Trump will take AZ by storm on Tuesday:

Almost a quarter million Republican ballots have already been cast in Arizona’s largest county, potentially giving Trump a big leg up in the primary, experts say.

“That banking of votes early on does help Trump tremendously, no matter what happens,” said Richard Herrara, a political science professor at Arizona State University. “He’s probably got a pretty sizable lead, so he’s just got to hold on.”

Statistics from Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, show voters in Arizona’s largest county returned 249,703 ballots in the 2016 GOP presidential primary as of Thursday, more than the 248,128 cast for the entire 2012 contest.

Arizona is a big prize because the winner collects all 58 of its delegates.

“This has really been a different election season,” said Helen Purcell, the Maricopa County Recorder.

Trump has sizable advantages as primary day approaches.

He has been endorsed by former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and hard-line Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Recent polls have Trump up by 10 points or more.

However, the primary is closed, which means that only registered Republicans can vote, which may give rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich an opening.

Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said he’s optimistic about the outcome.

“We have a lot of support. Arizona is a state that has been hugely impacted by illegal immigration,” he told The Post…..

(emphasis mine)

http://nypost.com/2016/03/18/seems-like-arizona-republicans-cant-wait-to-vote-for-trump/

This tells me that many thousands of AZ Independents and Dems must have re-registered in time to cast their Republican absentee ballot, lol ….

The same thing can very well happen in CA, especially SoCal, which is greatly impacted by illegal immigration and where the budgets of local governments have been crucified by “unfunded mandates” caused from massive illegal immigration, and as a byproduct, the many thousands of “anchor babies” who made it possible for their (undocumented) parent(s) to remain in the country (the bulk of them born at one of two Chula Vista hospitals over the past 30 years).

Neighbors who are registered Republicans have told me that the Trump campaign has been heavily organizing on the ground for a spring blitz in the Golden State. SD and Imperial Counties are especially important as they are border counties. This is where the residents (as well as the hospitals and justice system) have been most directly impacted by illegal immigration, especially the population residing close to the international border (50th, 51st and portions of the 53rd Congressional Districts).

It’s going to be a fun spring and summer here in Cali, folks! Cox has been bombarding me with deeply-discounted “TV specials” now that I have once again turned in my cable box. Maybe, I’ll buy a case of microwave popcorn and take advantage of one of them around June-ish :=0

[joec]

Maybe some people are supporting Trump purely for his tougher sounding immigration stance. Some folks I spoke to know co-workers say that they are supporting Trump because they work in hospitals and am sick of all the free healthcare and lack of gratitude from illegals.

At the end of the day, I’m guessing a lot of these people just don’t care as much about all the other downsides of a Trump presidency, but want to shut down the thing that affects them the most.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec]Maybe some people are supporting Trump purely for his tougher sounding immigration stance. Some folks I spoke to know co-workers say that they are supporting Trump because they work in hospitals and am sick of all the free healthcare and lack of gratitude from illegals.

At the end of the day, I’m guessing a lot of these people just don’t care as much about all the other downsides of a Trump presidency, but want to shut down the thing that affects them the most.[/quote]joec, I have longtime friends who have worked in the hospitals in Chula Vista for decades (a couple of them more than 30 years). They’ve seen the “anchor-baby” stunt played out hundreds and hundreds of times at work … from the the portico driveway to the lobby to the elevator all the way to the maternity floor (for the ones who can hold on that long to deliver) :=0 It never ends. It’s a sieve of women who are nine months pregnant who either walk over or get dropped off on this side of the border for the express purpose of dropping their baby in the US … with “witnesses” so they can immediately get a US birth certificate and social security number for their “anchor baby.” This phenomenon still goes on all day, every day because the Homeland Security Dept will not turn away a walker, driver or passenger of a vehicle coming across the border who is obviously in her third trimester of pregnancy and doesn’t have any documents giving them the right to reside in the US. If she just has a visitor’s visa or border-crossing card or the like, she will just state at the gate that she’s “going to the mall” (we have 3 malls down here, one ~5 miles from the border, one ~8 miles from the border and one ~9 miles from the border).

Another group of pregnant women who are brought over by car (or successfully smuggled over, which is harder to do these days) usually end up at a relative’s house or “drop house” in 91910, 91911 or 92154 (Nestor/Otay Mesa). This group usually delivers within a week of arrival at Scripps Chula Vista in dtn CV (formerly Bay General Hospital).

There are portion of women about to deliver who try to cross the treacherous desert (directly east or west of the Otay Mesa border-crossing gates) to get here and the border patrol picks them up and usually takes them to …. “drumroll” …. Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center (“formerly CV Community Hospital”) instead of escorting them back over the border. Ditto for the pregnant border crossers with relatives in Otay Mesa (92154) or in the newer subdivisions of 91913, 91914 or 91915.

These “new or repeat moms” are all “charity cases” and/or “unreimbursed cases” cuz none of them can qualify for Medi-Cal, due to their (undocumented) status.

This scenario has been going on as long as I can remember and I moved from metro SD (dtn SD and East/SE SD) to South County in 1986.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the CEO’s of both Sharp and Scripps begin to support Trump publicly.

The “legal” immigrant and “native” population of South County (95% of it) is beyond sick of this (as well as MX-citizen children taking up to hundreds of seats in each South County public school) and disgusted that nothing has been done, even after Homeland Security installed bright lights (on high beam at night), which can be seen up close and personal with binoculars out of windows of homes and businesses situated on hilltops up to four miles away.

I suspect there will be a shortage of Trump yard signs down here and Trump supporters will be stealing signs from somewhere else to display in their own yard, lol …

[outtamojo]

I work in a hospital- 25 years now. When someone comes to me as a patient, they have no history- they are just a human being in need of help. Fvck those hospital workers if they are treating patients differently or lowering standards of care based on personal politics. They need to get another freaking job like border patrol or something as they are unfit for their present job.
Question: name someone who said it was ok to take advantage of the laws of the land? What’s the difference between Trumps bankruptcies and someone taking advantage of citizenship laws?
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2016/03/on-face-nation-today-john-dickerson.html?m=1

[Coronita]

[quote=joec]Maybe some people are supporting Trump purely for his tougher sounding immigration stance. Some folks I spoke to know co-workers say that they are supporting Trump because they work in hospitals and am sick of all the free healthcare and lack of gratitude from illegals.

At the end of the day, I’m guessing a lot of these people just don’t care as much about all the other downsides of a Trump presidency, but want to shut down the thing that affects them the most.[/quote]

This is really ironic. Because if it wasn’t for the demand of ER care, the same folks complaining about those people would probably be unemployed from lack of demand.

It’s like people who complain about a bloated government but then work for a defense company or the government itself.

[FlyerInHi]

Good point, flu. People in the military and law enforcement are often right wingers. To them, it’s not a about small government, but about authoritarianism.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=outtamojo]I work in a hospital- 25 years now. When someone comes to me as a patient, they have no history– they are just a human being in need of help. Fvck those hospital workers if they are treating patients differently or lowering standards of care based on personal politics. They need to get another freaking job like border patrol or something as they are unfit for their present job…..[/quote]outtamojo, I never stated that “illegal aliens” were getting less care or a different “standard of care” than anyone else treated at the same hospital. I stated that they were coming over here by hook or crook close to their delivery dates and presenting themselves for delivery, often when there was no point of return (ie water broke, baby trying to come before they even arrive, etc). Of course, no one at the hospital realizes their true status until AFTER their (often “emergency”) delivery is performed and they are visited by a hospital social worker due to lack of English skills of the mother. This hospital employee is a Medi-Cal specialist. At that point, the hospital ends up stuck with the tab for maternity services.

It’s just another “unfunded mandate” that goes along with the territory of operating a business or government in a large metro area bordering MX.

If you want to know why healthcare is astronomically priced in this region, this phenomenon is a big part of your answer, folks. YOUR insurance payments to hospitals and the providers who contract with them is subsidizing this HUGE and continually-flowing “illegal-alien” group …. all over the state, but most of the medical services to this group are rendered within 15 miles inside the US border.

outtamojo, these MX National women who walk over the border (or are brought to local hospitals by private vehicle or the border patrol) very deliberately come here to deliver their child(ren) so they will be “anchor babies” for them to stay here. Especially if the father of the children is already working somewhere in the state (legally or illegally), leaving his family in MX and sending them remittances. It is a calculating move on their part and the US Homeland Security Dept allows their crossing with no questions asked if they have a border-crossing card or other ID to come here and “shop” or “visit family and friends for 1-2 days.” And “shop” they do but that ruse is undoubtedly used by female MX Nationals in their last trimester of pregnancy to successfully cross into the US to deliver their child(ren). Most of them don’t have a ready place to stay in the US close to the hospitals near the border for weeks or months while they await the birth of their child so they frequently wait until the 11th hour to cross into the US … when delivery is imminent.

outtamojo, I don’t know which hospital you work at (in SD County?) but this is a very frequent occurrence in South County hospitals … often taking place several times per week … even more than once daily.

I believe the hospitals around here would still have enough patients if they didn’t provide “unreimbursed” care for Mexican Nationals and wouldn’t have to lay any employees off. (They would actually be fiscally better off.) But not so for the public schools in the two South County public school districts. In some of them (elem schools), a VERY large percentage of their student populations are actually border-crossers (both MX National and “anchor baby” children) every day who are “hiding” behind the local address of a friend or relative or a longtime boarded up home that no one in the school districts has ever verified as “uninhabitable.” The address of a boarded-up property can (and was) used for up to 30 students attending multiple local public schools because the offices of each campus don’t compare notes with one another as to students using the same address to attend schools within the CVESD. Yes, if there was ever a change in rules and regs at the Int’l gates (for MX Nationals attempting to cross into the US with a MX passport, border crossing card and the like) as to time of day transporting obvious school children back and forth, driver or passenger in third trimester of pregnancy, etc, then a few of these Elem schools would likely have to shut down as the areas around them are 70-90% comprised of the over-55 crowd. The few children actually legitimately residing in the attendance areas of these schools would have to be bused to another public school. This would especially affect schools situated in older, low-density areas where there are few apt and condo units, if any.

Oh, and outtamojo, a patient coming into a hospital to deliver their pregnancy should have a “history” with them. They should ALREADY have their insurance cards on file with the delivering hospital as well as all of their prenatal care records, name and phone of obstetrician (who has practice rights at THAT hospital) as well as delivery date ALL on file with them. That’s the way it was for ME and I’m no spring chicken :=0 This is the way it’s always been! The moment I walked (or was rolled in) to the hospital to deliver my baby and presented my insurance card, the triage desk or front desk already KNEW who the h@ll I was and why I was there without me having to say anything. They were “expecting” me. As it should be.

Many “illegal alien” new moms delivering at US hospitals near the US/MX border have had minimal, if any, prenatal care and of course, there is no record of it anywhere. Of course, this lack of prenatal care often adds more maternity services at the time of delivery, thus adding to their (unreimbursed) bill for delivery.

[ltsddd]

[quote=flu][quote=joec]Maybe some people are supporting Trump purely for his tougher sounding immigration stance. Some folks I spoke to know co-workers say that they are supporting Trump because they work in hospitals and am sick of all the free healthcare and lack of gratitude from illegals.

At the end of the day, I’m guessing a lot of these people just don’t care as much about all the other downsides of a Trump presidency, but want to shut down the thing that affects them the most.[/quote]

This is really ironic. Because if it wasn’t for the demand of ER care, the same folks complaining about those people would probably be unemployed from lack of demand.

It’s like people who complain about a bloated government but then work for a defense company or the government itself.[/quote]

No difference than the complaints about manufacturing jobs going overseas and at the same time wanting everything to be cheap. It’s really a catch-22.

How much more are people willing to pay for products that are made here instead of in countries across the pacific?

[flyer]

What is going on politically doesn’t really surprise me, when you realize 75% of the financial wealth in this country is held by the top 10 percent of households, with the bottom 25% divided among the remaining 90 percent.

It has been stated that we would have to go back to the Gilded Age to see this level of wealth inequality:

“The unequal distribution of wealth remained high during this period. From 1860 to 1900, the wealthiest 2% of American households owned more than a third of the nation’s wealth, while the top 10% owned roughly three fourths of it. The bottom 40% had no wealth at all. In terms of property, the wealthiest 1% owned 51%, while the bottom 44% claimed 1.1%.”

And it’s claiming more lives each year–even in the top 10 percent–should financial anchors be lost for whatever reasons.

I’m well aware that the core of these inequalities runs deep, as has been discussed, and it makes sense to try to resolve these issues, but, since this gap only seems to be increasing, imo, the sad part of the political hype being sold on both sides, is that, contrary to the promises being made, there is no quick fix, and very few people will see any meaningful changes in the outcome of their lives over the next decades–regardless of who is elected.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ltsdd]No difference than the complaints about manufacturing jobs going overseas and at the same time wanting everything to be cheap. It’s really a catch-22.

How much more are people willing to pay for products that are made here instead of in countries across the pacific?[/quote]Well, I’m not a big consumer and use my clothes, household and personal items for many years. However, I don’t care if the stuff I DO occasionally replace (jogging and exercise clothing and shoes, for example) is made in Taiwan or Bangladesh or the USA. If it meant more jobs for hundreds of thousands of idle American workers, then I would have no problem paying up to double for my running shoes.

I’ve been to some of these areas of the country with high unemployment and long-shuttered stores and strip malls, have seen it all multiple times with my own eyes and can tell you that it’s not pretty. It is often a “food desert” in these areas, as well, due to lack of choice (ie Family Dollar Store vs truck stop convenience store for what nearby food is actually available).

I totally sympathize with the people who have lived in these areas their entire lives and can’t easily relocate (family ties and prohibitive cost). I don’t feel it’s right that the factories which once provided the residents of these regions decent living wages have vanished to other countries, thereby enriching their foreign workers’ lives at the expense of American workers.

[joec]

[quote=outtamojo]I work in a hospital- 25 years now. When someone comes to me as a patient, they have no history- they are just a human being in need of help. Fvck those hospital workers if they are treating patients differently or lowering standards of care based on personal politics. They need to get another freaking job like border patrol or something as they are unfit for their present job.
Question: name someone who said it was ok to take advantage of the laws of the land? What’s the difference between Trumps bankruptcies and someone taking advantage of citizenship laws?
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2016/03/on-face-nation-today-john-dickerson.html?m=1%5B/quote%5D

I was actually saying the illegal patients were being the jerks/rude and the hospital workers were merely complaining about these illegals, not that they were actually giving crap healthcare to them.

I pretty much ALWAYS disagree with BG, but again, I have heard this point from hospital workers/nurses so for what it’s worth, I think it is a problem that needs to be addressed.

The whole born here, be an instant citizen should be changed IMO. I hear people from China do it too. I don’t think it benefits America to have this anymore…especially in this day and age.

Also, these illegal people don’t pay their medical care so it’s just you and me paying for illegals to have their babies here. Maybe you have extra dough to pay more healthcare and maybe this is why part of our healthcare is so expensive, but I don’t need or want to encourage this type of behavior.

Provide basic care, send them back after…

All IMO of course, and I am NOT a Trump supporter…

Also, it maybe hypocritical to complain about illegals coming and them giving you a job if you work in those hospitals, but the illegals taking advantage of this is not paying your bills or salary. I think a lot of hospitals under this type of work is actually looking to usually shut down or close since no one is actually paying them (just the government) which is probably a lot less that what it costs, since you have an extremely high risk high cost procedure (pre-natal and child birth).

[joec]

[quote=flyer]What is going on politically doesn’t really surprise me, when you realize 75% of the financial wealth in this country is held by the top 10 percent of households, with the bottom 25% divided among the remaining 90 percent.

It has been stated that we would have to go back to the Gilded Age to see this level of wealth inequality:

“The unequal distribution of wealth remained high during this period. From 1860 to 1900, the wealthiest 2% of American households owned more than a third of the nation’s wealth, while the top 10% owned roughly three fourths of it. The bottom 40% had no wealth at all. In terms of property, the wealthiest 1% owned 51%, while the bottom 44% claimed 1.1%.”

And it’s claiming more lives each year–even in the top 10 percent–should financial anchors be lost for whatever reasons.

I’m well aware that the core of these inequalities runs deep, as has been discussed, and it makes sense to try to resolve these issues, but, since this gap only seems to be increasing, imo, the sad part of the political hype being sold on both sides, is that, contrary to the promises being made, there is no quick fix, and very few people will see any meaningful changes in the outcome of their lives over the next decades–regardless of who is elected.[/quote]

Yep, again, I think we, everyone will have to ask what risks we are willing to take to go down the same route we are heading down now (concentrated wealth, oligarchy type environment where 1% controls our politics now)…and the risks of what may happen if things don’t change.

At the end of the day, when the situation is bad enough, I think when you have just too many unhappy people, it’s not going to end well.

Of course, they are stating unemployment is almost 4% now and the economy is recovering.

I give it 50 years or less before the shit hits the fan.

It did take WW2 to get the US out of it’s last depression.

[svelte]

[quote=flyer]What is going on politically doesn’t really surprise me, when you realize 75% of the financial wealth in this country is held by the top 10 percent of households, with the bottom 25% divided among the remaining 90 percent.

[/quote]

I’m confused. Are you saying it makes sense that people are angry about the concentration of wealth among a few individuals, so it follows that they would rally around a reported billionaire notorious for bully business practices?

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=joec]

It did take WW2 to get the US out of it’s last depression.[/quote]

Why do people want war and killing?

War was just deficit spending that employed people. A new deal for infrastructure would do it. Democrats have proposals.

[Author]

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