OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Trump is not the type to make nice with people who dissed him.
Christie is more likely the running make. And Jeff Sessions might be attorney general. His in-laws and his business friends will get administration posts.[/quote]I think he’ll appoint Christie to the AG post if elected. Yeah, some of his successful business friends and contacts will get cabinet posts as well at least one of his relatives (sons?). He’ll find a position for them that doesn’t involve a lot of policy knowledge and experience. However, I think Trump would prefer the bulk of his extended family remain back in NY running the family biz.

I also think he may cross party lines for 1-2 cabinet posts … if elected.

[bearishgurl]

Trump and Cruz are going to have to eventually “make nice” and “pool their resources and support” if they’re going to successfully stave off a “brokered convention” attempt from the “old guard.” Cruz was obviously heavily favored in the heart of the bible belt for the Republican nominee and that was no small feat.

Texas is a BIG state and its votes and delegates are nothing to scoff at.

[bearishgurl]

I was studying results from the 2012 general election in CA on Sunday night. I noticed that only about 55% of eligible voters in the state voted at that time and CA’s 58 counties were split 29 Red (for Romney) and 29 Blue (for Obama). But …. most of the counties who voted R were rural or semi-rural and a significant amount of counties who voted D had huge populations (LA county being the largest with nearly 2.6M votes cast [~69% Dem]). Overall, 59.3% of CA votes were for Obama, 38.3% of the votes were for Romney and 2.4% of the votes were for “other” candidates (American Independent, Green Party, Libertarian and Peace & Freedom parties).

The wild card this year will be to see how many people (esp newly aged-in millenials) register to vote for the first time or finally decide to cast their vote after having not participated in elections in recent years as well as those who decide to re-register to change their party affiliation. This will be especially telling if there are little to no “protest candidates” on the ballot running for president to choose from.

I think 2016 is going to be a banner year for voter turnout. It’s going to be very interesting t see what will happen with the approx 10M people in CA who did not vote in the general election in 2012 but were otherwise eligible to register and/or vote.

ALL of the candidates would do well to plan tours stumping on the “CA public university campus circuit” this spring enabling them to energize hundreds of thousands of unregistered millenials in time to register to vote in the CA primary.

[svelte]

TRUMP. Make America hate again.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=bearishgurl]
If Trump should get elected, I predict he will find a cabinet post for every . single . one of his Republican opponents … yeah, even “little Marco.”[/quote]

True, he plays political back scratch game very well to get his projects approved.

What you described is old boys money club, and wow would his followers get sold down the river.

As for California, it’s still frankly irrelevant in the general election. Our electoral votes are awarded via overall popular vote outcome, winner take all. Not in county by county matchup.

[Anonymous]

Trump’s two top opponents are senators.

Those seats will become very precious if Trump, or any Republican, wins the presidency.

[Coronita]

[quote=svelte]TRUMP. Make America hate again.[/quote]

TRUMP, flipping flopping to make America great again…

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-h1b-visas-gop-debate-immigration-2016-3

“‘I’m changing’: Donald Trump casually announces policy flip-flop at debate”

[zk]

I was wondering how Cruz, a senator, was considered an outsider, so I googled it. It looks like, if he’s an outsider at all, he’s an outsider mainly because nobody in the establishment likes him.

Outsider. Pariah. Whatever.

Interesting article in Slate, with the headline:

“Harvard-Educated Lawyer Who’s Worked for Every Branch of Government Runs for President as Outsider”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/11/ted_cruz_outsider_establishment_hating_candidate_has_great_establishment.html

CBS news ran this article, with the hard-hitting headline:

“Ted Cruz, Washington outsider and proud”

The first two paragraphs:

Presidential hopeful Ted Cruz is glad he isn’t a part of the nation’s political elite.

“You may have heard I’m not exactly the most popular person with congressional leadership,” the cheerful Texas senator said Friday to a group of conservative business leaders.

The third paragraph explains why (he claims) he’s not well-liked. Turns out he’s an obstructionist douchebag:

Cruz, the first major Republican to officially declare his candidacy for the White House, said that because of his role in the 2013 government shutdown over Obamacare he wasn’t well-liked among the party’s heads. And as a result, campaign donations dried up.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-cruz-washington-outsider-and-proud/

It appears the republicans now have two gigantic assholes from which to choose. One who’s basically a fascist, and one who wants to take his ball and go home when he doesn’t like the way the game is going. At least Trump would almost certainly lose in November. Cruz apparently has a real shot at winning the general election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

We live in very scary times.

[Coronita]

[quote=zk]I was wondering how Cruz, a senator, was considered an outsider, so I googled it. It looks like, if he’s an outsider at all, he’s an outsider mainly because nobody in the establishment likes him.

Outsider. Pariah. Whatever.

Interesting article in Slate, with the headline:

“Harvard-Educated Lawyer Who’s Worked for Every Branch of Government Runs for President as Outsider”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/11/ted_cruz_outsider_establishment_hating_candidate_has_great_establishment.html

CBS news ran this article, with the hard-hitting headline:

“Ted Cruz, Washington outsider and proud”

The first two paragraphs:

Presidential hopeful Ted Cruz is glad he isn’t a part of the nation’s political elite.

“You may have heard I’m not exactly the most popular person with congressional leadership,” the cheerful Texas senator said Friday to a group of conservative business leaders.

The third paragraph explains why (he claims) he’s not well-liked. Turns out he’s an obstructionist douchebag:

Cruz, the first major Republican to officially declare his candidacy for the White House, said that because of his role in the 2013 government shutdown over Obamacare he wasn’t well-liked among the party’s heads. And as a result, campaign donations dried up.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-cruz-washington-outsider-and-proud/

It appears the republicans now have two gigantic assholes from which to choose. One who’s basically a fascist, and one who wants to take his ball and go home when he doesn’t like the way the game is going. At least Trump would almost certainly lose in November. Cruz apparently has a real shot at winning the general election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

We live in very scary times.[/quote]

I smell a Trump/Cruz ticket or Cruz/Trump ticket. Then we’re really screwed.

[zk]

[quote=flu]

I smell a Trump/Cruz ticket or Cruz/Trump ticket. Then we’re really screwed.[/quote]

Yikes.

Great quote from Louis C.K.:

“If you are a true conservative. Don’t vote for Trump. He is not one of you. He is one of him.”

And Cruz: Too obstructionist even for the “party of no.” Ouch.

Hillary is too much in Wall Street’s pocket, and she’s too focus-group driven, and her vision for the country seems somewhat fuzzy. Her honesty takes more hits than it should, in my opinion. She doesn’t seem any less honest than your average politician. Which is to say, pretty dishonest. And the right-wing attacks on her regarding the Benghazi situation are nonsense. She’s tough, brilliant, and has tons of stamina. Would she be a great president? Probably not. A good one? I’d say there’s a good chance of that. A disaster? Probably not.

Trump would be a disaster, it seems to me.

And Cruz would be a huge step backward. I predict that by as soon as 2020, and 2024 at the latest, profoundly conservative politicians like Cruz will be dinosaurs. Especially if Cruz wins in 2016 and the younger Americans get energized by their disgust for him and what he stands for.

[Coronita]

[quote=zk][quote=flu]

I smell a Trump/Cruz ticket or Cruz/Trump ticket. Then we’re really screwed.[/quote]

Yikes.

Great quote from Louis C.K.:

“If you are a true conservative. Don’t vote for Trump. He is not one of you. He is one of him.”

And Cruz: Too obstructionist even for the “party of no.” Ouch.

Hillary is too much in Wall Street’s pocket, and she’s too focus-group driven, and her vision for the country seems somewhat fuzzy. Her honesty takes more hits than it should, in my opinion. She doesn’t seem any less honest than your average politician. Which is to say, pretty dishonest. And the right-wing attacks on her regarding the Benghazi situation are nonsense. She’s tough, brilliant, and has tons of stamina. Would she be a great president? Probably not. A good one? I’d say there’s a good chance of that. A disaster? Probably not.

Trump would be a disaster, it seems to me.

And Cruz would be a huge step backward. I predict that by as soon as 2020, and 2024 at the latest, profoundly conservative politicians like Cruz will be dinosaurs. Especially if Cruz wins in 2016 and the younger Americans get energized by their disgust for him and what he stands for.[/quote]

I never thought I’d agree with you ever on politics. But I agree with you.

My concern at this point isn’t so much about the white house next term. My concern is the GOP loses not only the white house, but the Senate too. I don’t like our government when one party dominates, and it concerns me more that with Hillary at the helm, and with the justice appointments (I’d settle for moderates), we need some sort of checks and balances in Congress.

That said, I think the GOP party as it stands is finished. It really needs to abandon some of the far right side lunatics and start taking a more moderate stance on social issues. Some of the far right side thinking is just, frankly, obsolete in the 21st century. As Lincoln once said, a house divided against itself cannot stand.

I think a Trump/Cruz or a Cruz/Trump ticket is coming though. Trump + anyone else would alienate all the Cruz voters. And a Cruz+ anyone else would alienate all the trump voters. Cruz+Trump or Trump+Cruz, people would probably get behind. And trump and cruz is smart enough to realize this. The Democrats might really have a big problem at hand if this happens.

Contrast this with a Hillary/Bernie ticket. Bernie has some good ideas for the well being of people, BUT all his thinking is way to extreme for a leader of the U.S. It’s best he serves in an advisory role, where some of his radical thinking can trickle through our system and get adopted piece-wise.

A Hillary/Bernie ticket would destroy the Democrat’s chances, so that isn’t going to happen. Hillary better pick someone else, preferably a no-name person. Which then begs the question… I wonder who Hillary’s running mate will be?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl]
If Trump should get elected, I predict he will find a cabinet post for every . single . one of his Republican opponents … yeah, even “little Marco.”[/quote]

True, he plays political back scratch game very well to get his projects approved.

What you described is old boys money club, and wow would his followers get sold down the river. . . . [/quote]

I disagree about the “old boys money club” NSR. You forgot about Carly Fiorina and NM Gov Susana Martinez, for starters. Both of these accomplished women have skill sets which Trump will need for his agenda, and if elected, he will find posts for both of them.

I feel it would be in the best interest for the Grand Olde Party (but the “Old Guard” is too short-sighted to realize this …. yet) if Trump and Cruz “coupled up” BEFORE March 15 and campaigned together in populous FL (“Little Marco’s” state). Cruz speaks “the King’s” fluent Spanish (not quite the same Spanish we hear around here, lol) and so does Rubio. Trump will really need Cruz on his ticket as he heads west in the coming months.

Perhaps the two have already made a tentative “backroom deal” to pair up, contingent on the outcome of the primaries in MI, ID and MS and HI on Tuesday.

I haven’t yet decided what the outcome of the general election will be (a R or D president) but I predict the R candidate will take all the “border counties” in the US (yeah, even SD and Imperial Counties). The Lincoln Club is very influential in this town and they will set a up a staged rally (with heavy security) for Trump/Cruz along the (urban) Int’l border just south of the Tijuana Estuary or the 905 fwy with all the bright lights on high beam (for TV “effect”). This will give Fmr Rep Duncan Hunter a platform to introduce Trump/Cruz to their many thousands of disgusted border-dwelling supporters. Trump will start off the rally by pointing to the exact location the high wall will be going up that he’s planning on having MX pay for amid a full two-minute roar from the audience of “Trump, trump, trump …” Cruz will manage to calm the crowd down and begin speaking Spanish to them. :=0

If Trump gets the nomination, the same as above will happen this summer/fall just east of the Juarez border entry gates just south of El Paso, TX and Gov Martinez will proudly introduce the pair to a HUGE crowd, again with all the lights on high beam and the crowd shouting over and over “Trump-Cruz!”

OK, you can pick yourself up off the floor now and stop laughing, people …. I know a thing or two about how all of this stuff works and can tell you that the “fat lady” has only begun singing her second number for the evening.

[bearishgurl]

Just ran across this e-mail poll from last summer/fall: Would you support a Trump-Cruz ticket?

[img_assist|nid=25754|title=Closeted “best buddies”|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=85]

https://lockerdome.com/7060952575121473/would-you-support-a-trump-cruz-ticket-6200

edit: I just noticed that the above pic was taken in Trump’s Manhattan office. The $64M question here is “When?” Was it taken before Trump and/or Cruz announced their candidacy for President? Could it have been taken a year ago or last spring? The date of the photo would be very telling.

[zk]

[quote flu]
I never thought I’d agree with you ever on politics. But I agree with you.

[/quote]

I don’t think we’re as far apart as you think, flu. Because I’m passionate about my disgust with the religious right’s social agenda (and about the religious right’s place in politics in general) and passionate about my amazement (o.k., anger) that the right-wing noise machine has snowed as many people as it has, I probably come across as a flaming liberal. Just because I think the right-wing noise machine is shamelessly and viciously manipulating people using their emotions doesn’t mean I disagree with all conservative viewpoints. My positions are spread across the spectrum, depending on the particular issue. If you add them all up and average them, I’m fairly middle-of-the-road. Or maybe middle-of-the-road as it was defined before the right wing lurched even further right. Although the financial crisis of ’08 has moved me towards the left on banking regulation issues.

[quote flu]

My concern at this point isn’t so much about the white house next term. My concern is the GOP loses not only the white house, but the Senate too. I don’t like our government when one party dominates, and it concerns me more that with Hillary at the helm, and with the justice appointments (I’d settle for moderates), we need some sort of checks and balances in Congress.

[/quote]

Then again, maybe we’re not that close, as one of my bigger concerns about a Cruz presidency is the prospect of super-conservative supreme court appointments. I’d be ecstatic with moderates if he were president, but I don’t think we’d get anything close to that.

While I agree that it’s a bit dangerous to have one party dominate (either one), I think that some cooperation (a lot more than the republicans have shown over the last 7 years) would be better than just saying no.

[quote flu]

I think a Trump/Cruz or a Cruz/Trump ticket is coming though. Trump + anyone else would alienate all the Cruz voters. And a Cruz+ anyone else would alienate all the trump voters. Cruz+Trump or Trump+Cruz, people would probably get behind. And trump and cruz is smart enough to realize this. The Democrats might really have a big problem at hand if this happens.

[/quote]

I don’t think Trump/Cruz would win. I think Cruz/Trump might have a shot, but I think Cruz/somebody reasonable would be the republicans’ best shot. We’ll see.

[quote flu]

Contrast this with a Hillary/Bernie ticket. Bernie has some good ideas for the well being of people, BUT all his thinking is way to extreme for a leader of the U.S. It’s best he serves in an advisory role, where some of his radical thinking can trickle through our system and get adopted piece-wise.

[/quote]

I agree that Bernie’s stuff can’t get done right now. Maybe in 10 or 20 years. I understand that younger people have always leaned more left than older people, but I think that’s more prevalent now than ever. Kids these days have pretty radically left ideas, especially on social issues.

[quote flu]

A Hillary/Bernie ticket would destroy the Democrat’s chances, so that isn’t going to happen. Hillary better pick someone else, preferably a no-name person. Which then begs the question… I wonder who Hillary’s running mate will be?

[/quote]

I think you’re right; she won’t pick Bernie, and it will be very interesting to see who she picks. I’m thinking it will be the safest possible person. A white man, for sure. Someone experienced. Someone who doesn’t make a lot of gaffes. Sort of a democrat version of Mitt Romney.

[bearishgurl]

I finally had a chance to research when the photo of Trump and Cruz was taken at Trump Tower. It was on July 15, 2015, after they both had announced their candidacy. It’s very possible that each realized they were “outcasts” at the time and thus saw each other as their only viable competition for votes (from a crowded field at the time). They met primarily to to strategize over Plan A, B, C and D, for their respective campaigns, in that order, since neither man’s candidacy would be looked upon very kindly by the “old guard.”

….Then Cruz made a quick stop to visit and old friend in town: Donald Trump.

The two 2016 Republican presidential candidates met at Trump Tower around 5:00 p.m. local time, where they discussed a wide variety of topics in a “very friendly” meeting, according to Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler.

Cruz said Wednesday that he had met with Trump several times before they entered the race and that he’s friends with many of his 2016 rivals. Despite Trump’s entrance sucking away support from the senator in poll, Cruz has defended the mogul’s controversial comments about Mexican immigrants and praises him for drawing attention to illegal immigration. ….

(Emphasis mine)

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2015/07/ted-takes-new-york-cruzs-day-in-the-big-apple.html/

“…summit in Manhattan” is a fitting description of their meeting, IMO.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/15/trumpcruz-summit-in-manhattan/

In spite of all their wrangling of late and Trump deliberately playing the go-nowhere “birther card” against Cruz as a distraction and Cruz playing into some of his games and bouncing insults back, I think the joke is on the American people who are watching all of these shenanigans unfold. H@ll, even one or more of the networks who aired the debates might even be in on it!

After all, why team up too early and give the “old guard” too much ammunition? This will only incite them to caucus at midnight with pizza in a dark conference room in attempt to put their collective heads together to figure out how to successfully bust the “Trump/Cruz” ticket. Why not drag it out until the 11th hour and get as much voter support as possible (individually and severally) before making it “public” that they will be running mates? By then, it might be too late for the “old guard” to attempt to do anything about it without looking like flaming idiots to the American people thereby causing their waning voter base to revolt to the dems (or any Independent candidates who might be on the ballot).

Trump may be a lot of things but the one attribute he has which no one can take away from him is that he has had a LOT of practice as a master at the chessboard of life. Cruz will follow along, all the while knowing or believing he will eventually have a better job than he currently has regardless of the outcome of the election. (Cruz and his family are actually enrolled in Obamacare thru the Senate’s Federal Employee exchange offerings), lol …:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/24/politics/ted-cruz-obamacare/index.html

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