OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[paramount]

[quote=paramount][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=outtamojo]
Trump the businessman? Try googling Trump bankruptcies. Fortunate for him there was a government safety net.[/quote]

If Trump had invested the hundreds of millions he inherited, and had just continued to buy NY real estate, like his dad did, he would have more money today, without doing much work. Trump took unnecessary risks and rode the real estate market up and down.

Many NY real estate families are richer, but they don’t have the flash and name recognition of Trump.

You could argue that the Trump brand is worth a lot, but when he dies, I doubt the brand will have enduring value.

Trump’s personality very is compatible with the brash, “cowboy” American lower-class mentality. It doesn’t matter that he’s not a policy expert, that he flip flops. All that matters is that he’s saying: “don’t fvck with America, because we will destroy you; and we will win, and win big!”

George W. Bush had a “don’t mess with Texas” attitude. That’s why he won.

Jeb wears nerdy glasses and that turns off people.[/quote]

I agree and that was my point about Aristotle:

“Trump per Aristotle: arrogance, insolence, self-indulgence while considering himself worthy to hold public office.”

Maybe he’s not so different than other politicians: currently we have an office holder who seeks and enjoys a luxurious/royal lifestyle at tax payer expense.

As mentioned, I think some of that brashness comes from dealing in the NY/NJ cut throat commercial real estate world.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ltsdd]
BTW., is it just me or Ted Cruz has a very annoying voice? I thought I was going to get a seizure a few times listening to his debates/speeches.[/quote]

Yes, his voice is annoying.. high pitched and sharp. In a different era, his voice would be upper-crust. The upper class had more nasal speech. Like the Queen’s English or Northeast Brahmin English.

I think that Ted Cruz speaks well and is very smart… diabolically smart.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . Trump’s personality very is compatible with the brash, “cowboy” American lower-class mentality. It doesn’t matter that he’s not a policy expert, that he flip flops. All that matters is that he’s saying: “don’t fvck with America, because we will destroy you; and we will win, and win big!” . . . [/quote]

brian, I’ve suggested to you before here that you really need to get out more. I-8, I-10 and I-40 beckon. Have you actually been to the some of these spreads that the typical “brash, “cowboy” American (of supposed) lower-class mentality” owns and lives on? It’s not what you think. Real “cowboys” don’t live in run-down trailer parks full of meth labs. They have to be able to store their many (large and expensive) “toys,” equipment and animals. They make more off leasing their land for ranching per year than you would off owning and (laboriously) managing a fleet of short-term rentals in LV. As let’s not forget their gas and oil lease income which a good portion of their fathers and grandfathers negotiated with Big Oil back in the day.

If you actually met any of these guys, you might discover that they are clean, well groomed, both well-spoken and soft-spoken, well mannered, possibly college-educated and their boots and hat alone are worth more than the total of everything in your closet! TX is CHOCK FULL of these families, and to a lesser extent, OK and AR. Not everyone in the bible belt is a “right-wing, uneducated, nut job.” It is full of very sharp businessmen and women sans the flash and brash of Trump.

And Trump doesn’t need to be a “policy expert.” Trump has a good understanding of the issues this country is facing between his ears (esp foreign policy and military issues). He doesn’t even need cliff notes or a teleprompter. He most certainly knows enough people to find the best “policy experts” and “negotiators” in the country for his cabinet should be be elected.

Trump’s personality doesn’t bother me at all. He reminds me a little bit of my dad (who was very successful in his own right, I might add).

And no, I’m not a registered Republican and haven’t been since the Reagan era. I’m making up my mind on how I might re-register (if necessary) and who to vote for this year based upon how the candidates state they will deal with issues that I am most concerned about and whether I think what they are proposing is actually doable.

[FlyerInHi]

If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.

[outtamojo]

[quote=FlyerInHi]If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.[/quote]

Republicans I know are most angry when they see someone receiving something “undeserved” or they didn’t “work” for.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.[/quote]They do. The fav winter vacation spots for families in that region are the Mexican Riveria and the Caribbean. Transportation is cheap from major TX airports. In the summers, they haul their cigarette boats, cabin cruisers and Ski Nautiques (loaded with water toys) into Lake Texoma and OK and northern Arkansas’ lakes to the same family cabins every year. Once unpacked and settled in, they slalom with the sunrise and continue to ski, explore and fish the rest of the day. Before dinner, they swim next to the boathouses, jumping off the decks, have a BBQ dinner with homemade ice cream cranked with rock salt, turn in and start all over at 5:00 am most mornings. It’s not uncommon for them to shoot off piles of fireworks on the weekends (it’s still legal there, AFAIK).

I spent 15 summers of my childhood doing this for 1-3 weeks every summer, where my uncle put on a fireworks show at least once per week and provided us kids lesser fireworks. We had a blast and the lake water feels like bath water!

[FlyerInHi]

BG, in that case, then why live in Chula Vista?
Go join your relatives. Bye, Bye, as Trump would say.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=FlyerInHi]If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.[/quote]

Republicans I know are most angry when they see someone receiving something “undeserved” or they didn’t “work” for.[/quote]

Ok, I can accept that. But do their children and relatives deserve anything that they didn’t “work” for? And, also, if we can create growth and wealth for our citizens, then why not give them a hand so we can all be better off?

Don’t you think that if you give your kids a good education and some startup capital, they will do better? If you make them work for every penny, they may not make it at all.

My question, however, was more specific to BG about Trump supporters. If things are so good, then why is America “losing, not winning, going to hell.”

[bearishgurl]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=FlyerInHi]If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.[/quote]

Republicans I know are most angry when they see someone receiving something “undeserved” or they didn’t “work” for.[/quote]This is somewhat true, but “bible belt dwellers” have compassion and many biz owners there are heavily into local philanthropy. If you remember, Houston took in tens of thousands of Katrina victims with hardly anything more than the clothes on their backs. Social services in TX are nowhere near as generous as they are in CA (except for maybe food aid, which is run by the Dept of Agriculture). Their “culture” is that you give a person a fishing pole and teach them how to fish. This refugee group bussed in from the state of LA was given all the basics (with Federal funds but the TX govm’t still had to properly administer all the programs it paid for), given vocational training and placed in jobs. These opportunities never existed for them back in New Orleans and they were used to being “on the dole” back home … for generations. Now, over 10 years later, this group is, of course, spread out and far more self-sufficient than they ever would have been been had Hurricane Katrina never happened. A lot of the kids ended up graduating from college which never, ever would have happened had they stayed back home.

Biz owners in this region have the same concerns as biz owners in CA, and yes, some ARE angry about certain issues and rightly so. My dad had a medium sized business which operated in 7 states and the bureaucracy he had to deal with was mind-numbing. His biggest concerns were liability for injury, being gouged by insurance companies, bureaucratic red tape to get from point A to point B and back and his state taxing entity with their hands constantly outstretched, whom he called, “corrupt.” Sound familiar? He also was less than pleased with IRS rules and policies and felt some of them made no sense. And the list goes on. It isn’t any different than how a small/med-sized biz owner feels in SD.

Joe and Jane 6p in the bible belt are angry about Obamacare …. as I am. They’re forced to pay money for premiums every month where no nearby providers exist for a large portion of the population. Especially those small town and rural dwellers who have no providers within 50 miles of where they live. And a few carriers who signed up with their exchange(s) in 2013 have already gone bankrupt, thus, there are even less insurance companies today for that populace to sign up with. In addition, TX and OK did not agree to Medicaid expansion, which left a lot of moderate-income families feeling too poor to be able to pay (even a portion of) a health insurance premium every month and too “rich” for Medicaid.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=kcal09]I like Trump… I don’t agree with everything he says… he’s crude, rude and crass. But I believe him when he says he is going to make good deals for our country… because he will have the best business people in the world making those deals… that he will bring jobs back to the US. He is not beholding to anyone, and I like that too. Say what you want, he is not a moron. Trump isn’t stupid.[/quote]

You’re creating a strawman. No one I know or read is saying Trump is a moron or stupid. The issue is that he’s an arrogant, narcissistic, bully. And while that might be someone you can rally behind he will end up being an extremely ineffective leader. (And as others have already pointed out, his financial track record shows he hasn’t been a very successful leader of his own companies.)

First, he will alienate many of our allies. And as much as you might want to wave the flag and shout “America USA!” our country needs to engage and interact with foreign countries for the betterment of all people. (Including US citizens) Trump’s lack of diplomatic skills will be a significant detriment to US interests around the globe.

Second, Trump will need to work with congress to actually implement anything. And if nothing else is clear, it should be clear Trump is not going to be able to function in that environment. Contrary to what his supporters seem to believe, the president of the country is not like the president of a company. He doesn’t get to just say, “You’re Fired!” and that’s that. Like it or not, the presidnet needs to lead through coalition building. And one thing Trump definitely is not is a coalition builder!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=outtamojo][quote=FlyerInHi]If those Republicans in TX, AK, Ok… are so wealthy, then WTF are they angry about? Go spend some of that money and enjoy.[/quote]

Republicans I know are most angry when they see someone receiving something “undeserved” or they didn’t “work” for.[/quote]

Ok, I can accept that. But do their children and relatives deserve anything that they didn’t “work” for? And, also, if we can create growth and wealth for our citizens, then why not give them a hand so we can all be better off? . . . [/quote]CA gives the biggest and most widespread “welfare benefit” of any state in the union in the form of Props 13, 58 and 193. NONE of its residents who have most benefited from these sections did anything at all to “deserve” this special treatment except hold real property bought long ago (for very little money) or was born into a family that did and “inherited” said real property.

How is the 66-year old only child whose “inherited” home has been in gross disrepair since a few months after he “inherited” it (replete with constant trash and junk all over the property) more deserving than his neighbors who have pride of ownership? Is it fair that he has a $400 annual property tax bill versus my $4000+ annual tax bill? He’s been leeching off mom and dad (and then just dad after mom passed) his entire life and is nothing but a “loser.”

If his taxes were set from a “market-rate assessment” making them now ~$4000 (as mine are), his property would have already been auctioned off several years ago for back taxes and penalties and the new owner would have come in and cleaned it up. This “loser homeowner” has a nice monthly disability pension for life but just blows his money, buying two more vehicles (he has four now) in the past two years. These sections still on CA’s books today have the effect of “loser-heirs” deciding to attempt to keep a deceased parent’s property as a principal residence when they have no business whatsoever in being a “homeowner” with all that goes along with that.

No, he (and millions more Californians) don’t deserve this gubment largesse and of course, I’m angry about it! It’s grossly inequitable and unjust enrichment to mostly residents who have done absolutely nothing with their lives but there is nothing that will be done about this in my lifetime. My only recourse is to focus on “getting mine,” however small that may be (Prop 60 or 90) :=0

[phaster]

[quote=all][quote=bearishgurl]
There is a reason for everything. I’ll just leave it at that.[/quote]
No! Not another cliffhanger!
Let me guess, John Snow’s spirit lives through his pup?[/quote]

its the weekend so just thought I’d drop in and see if there was any reply to the pension debate

http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=6#comment-263227

I see there is no-response so guess that cliffhanger is on hold for a while….

[quote=harvey][quote=kcal09]I like Trump… I don’t agree with everything he says… he’s crude, rude and crass. But I believe him when he says he is going to make good deals for our country… because he will have the best business people in the world making those deals… that he will bring jobs back to the US. He is not beholding to anyone, and I like that too. Say what you want, he is not a moron. A good economy, with people working good jobs, and a lot of our current problems go away,
Remember Bill Clinton… “It’s the economy, stupid” … duh… and he left with a balanced budget and an economy that was a lot better than it is today… after Bush and the Obama trashed it… You say Reagan set it up for Bill, ok, fine, no argument…It is the economy, stupid. Trump isn’t stupid.[/quote]

“You say Reagan set it up for Bill …”

I didn’t say that.

It’s laughable that anyone believes Trump has a plan to create jobs in America.[/quote]

WRT to the political topic at hand, I’m looking on the bright side myself, if “the donald” does become president it will continue the tradition of “american” humor (being exported worldwide):

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/black-man-given-nations-worst-job-from-satire-to-fact-8792876.html

Personally I find its all-so-refreshing to have Trump point out in plain-speak why “We the people” (i.e. the USA) have problems because of Mexicans, Chinese, robots, Russians, and lastly the Muslims

The MEXICANS are taking the crappy jobs!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/18/careful-what-you-wish-for-here-s-what-california-would-look-like-without-illegal-immigrants.html

The CHINESE are pricing out the “crackers” (i.e. non white trailer-trash) out of the good RE areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc..

http://www.10news.com/news/more-chinese-buyers-investing-in-sd-real-estate

The ROBOTS are taking over basic manufacturing jobs

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/

The RUSSIAN women are marrying the men

AND

The MUSLIMS are the excuse to spy on you

http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-versus-the-fbi-why-the-lowest-priced-iphone-has-the-us-in-a-tizzy-faq/

Ain’t living in the great “american” melting pot great?

Well it is, at least for those in the > .01%!

Just wish at times I was higher up on the food chain!!

As for a TRUMP jobs plan, (harvey I have to point out you’re NOT understanding the grand plan), its all based on selling good old fashion VICE (i.e. gambling and sex)

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/back-to-the-future-donald-trump-biff-1201623760/

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/73fxht/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-don-t-forget–donald-trump-wants-to-bang-his-daughter

and if the business plan does not work out DECLARE BANKRUPTCY

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/21/carly-fiorina/trumps-four-bankruptcies/

as to how an “expert” in declaring bankruptcy translates in a geo-political conflict, I still have some reservations!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=kcal09]I like Trump… I don’t agree with everything he says… he’s crude, rude and crass. But I believe him when he says he is going to make good deals for our country… because he will have the best business people in the world making those deals… that he will bring jobs back to the US. He is not beholding to anyone, and I like that too. Say what you want, he is not a moron. Trump isn’t stupid.[/quote]

You’re creating a strawman. No one I know or read is saying Trump is a moron or stupid. The issue is that he’s an arrogant, narcissistic, bully. And while that might be someone you can rally behind he will end up being an extremely ineffective leader. (And as others have already pointed out, his financial track record shows he hasn’t been a very successful leader of his own companies.)

First, he will alienate many of our allies. And as much as you might want to wave the flag and shout “America USA!” our country needs to engage and interact with foreign countries for the betterment of all people. (Including US citizens) Trump’s lack of diplomatic skills will be a significant detriment to US interests around the globe.

Second, Trump will need to work with congress to actually implement anything. And if nothing else is clear, it should be clear Trump is not going to be able to function in that environment. Contrary to what his supporters seem to believe, the president of the country is not like the president of a company. He doesn’t get to just say, “You’re Fired!” and that’s that. Like it or not, the presidnet needs to lead through coalition building. And one thing Trump definitely is not is a coalition builder![/quote]I actually agree with you here, Xboxboy. And I agree with kcal that Trump is not stupid. Quite the contrary, he is very shrewd. I just don’t see him “alienating” other world leaders or even Congress. He is going to have a passel of “yes-men and women” to do his dirty work for him. Remember that he has had two Eastern European spouses who were both raised conservatively and are not afraid of work themselves. His current spouse has a lot of influence over him. He will surround himself with individuals who will “show him the lay of the land” (so to speak) around Washington. That’s what Reagan and Schwarzenegger did in Sacramento after they were elected governor of CA and they had no business or management experience whatsoever. He’s a “quick study” and will pick up fast on what to do and what not to do.

Honestly, I think if elected, Trump will play his “implementation plans” very close to his chest. He’ll be the “frontman,” of course, as he should, but he’ll have speechwriters and all the knowledgeable staff at the Capitol at his disposal. I think he does understand parliamentary procedure and also knows the mechanisms of how govm’t works.

I think he’s just having fun right now, letting us know who he is. If he doesn’t get the nomination or win the election, so be it. He is still having a very interesting effect on this election. I’m glad he’s running.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=phaster][quote=all][quote=bearishgurl]
There is a reason for everything. I’ll just leave it at that.[/quote]
No! Not another cliffhanger!
Let me guess, John Snow’s spirit lives through his pup?[/quote]

its the weekend so just thought I’d drop in and see if there was any reply to the pension debate

http://piggington.com/how_will_unfunded_pensions_affect_economy?page=6#comment-263227

I see there is no-response so guess that cliffhanger is on hold for a while….[/quote]FYI, phaster, I know you’ve been waiting with bated breath but I just want you to know that I have that PERB Decision of 12/29/15 sitting right here on top of my desk printed out with stick-note tabs throughout. I had to leave it to take a couple of jobs and have been working on taxes this weekend as I have been preparing returns for other family members who need them done ASAP for other purposes. I DO HOPE to get my opinion of it posted here soon and I do sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused you. PERB is one of my very favoritist (is that a word?) gubment tribunals in the whole wide world and they serve an important purpose which no other entity can.

Thank you for your patience!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl]
Biz owners in this region have the same concerns as biz owners in CA, and yes, some ARE angry about certain issues and rightly so. My dad had a medium sized business which operated in 7 states and the bureaucracy he had to deal with was mind-numbing. His biggest concerns were liability for injury, being gouged by insurance companies, bureaucratic red tape to get from point A to point B and back and his state taxing entity with their hands constantly outstretched, whom he called, “corrupt.” Sound familiar? He also was less than pleased with IRS rules and policies and felt some of them made no sense. And the list goes on. It isn’t any different than how a small/med-sized biz owner feels in SD.

Joe and Jane 6p in the bible belt are angry about Obamacare …. as I am. They’re forced to pay money for premiums every month where no nearby providers exist for a large portion of the population. Especially those small town and rural dwellers who have no providers within 50 miles of where they live. And a few carriers who signed up with their exchange(s) in 2013 have already gone bankrupt, thus, there are even less insurance companies today for that populace to sign up with. In addition, TX and OK did not agree to Medicaid expansion, which left a lot of moderate-income families feeling too poor to be able to pay (even a portion of) a health insurance premium every month and too “rich” for Medicaid.

[/quote]

BG, I don’t really want to make this personal, but you gave your dad’s example… so please be specific.

You say that your dad was successful and ran a medium size business. I would consider medium to be over $10 million in revenue in today’s dollar. He should have made a least $500,000 profit annually, in addition to his own executive salary, and left you kids with an inheritance, or gifted you a house in Lake Tahoe were you want to retire. 40 years ago, houses were cheap. What happened to the money?

I run a small business myself and the only “bullshit” thing that I deal with is the County Department of Environmental Health. We need to have a safety plan in case of fire, hazardous material spill, etc… It’s kinda of a pain, but I understand why employees should be trained for what to do in case of accident.

Workers comp is expensive, but that’s due to health care costs growing faster than inflation. Compliance is simple. The payroll service/software does the computation work.

I get my health coverage through my other work; but small business wise, Obamacare is great because our employees can now buy coverage through the exchange, and have their premiums reimbursed tax-free through payroll deduction. If there’re good profits, the employer can be more generous and pay the employees a bonus.

IRS wise, I don’t see what is onerous. The rules are what they are. Just follow them. Give me and example of something corrupt.

What is corrupt is BIG businesses being able to shift profits offshore to not pay taxes at all.

[Author]

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