OT – Malaysian 777 shot down over Ukraine

[spdrun]

What was a commercial airline doing flying over a war zone where long-range surface-to-air missiles were in known use? Talk about stupidity and/or hubris … “but … the Kaiser doesn’t REALLY mean unrestricted submarine warfare,”

[dumbrenter]

Ever heard of great circle route?

[quote=spdrun]What was a commercial airline doing flying over a war zone where long-range surface-to-air missiles were in known use? Talk about stupidity and/or hubris … “but … the Kaiser doesn’t REALLY mean unrestricted submarine warfare,”[/quote]

[spdrun]

Of course. It’s also possible to take a less direct route and cancel flights until one is created if the most direct route is unsafe. Inconvenienced passengers are better than dead ones.

[dumbrenter]

[quote=spdrun]Of course. It’s also possible to take a less direct route and cancel flights until one is created if the most direct route is unsafe. Inconvenienced passengers are better than dead ones.[/quote]

And who determines what is unsafe? Airliner? country of Airliner? pilot? country where it departed from?

Unless the country that has the airspace shuts it down there is no reason not to fly over it if it is economically feasible.
Look at it the other way round… would you have posted this if there was no crash today? As of now we don’t know if it was an accident or if it was shot down.

[spdrun]

The Ukrainian air ministry issued a warning about their airspace as early at July 8th. Our FAA warned about the same region as well.

Two transport aircraft flying at altitudes higher than those that shoulder-launched AA missiles can reach were shot down over eastern Ukraine before today. People with half a brain or a heart could have put 2+2 together.

Yep. Let’s fly over a war zone where long-range missiles are used to shoot down aircraft. Very smart.

[livinincali]

If you really think long and hard about this situation it doesn’t make sense for the initially blamed parties to intentionally shoot down a civilian aircraft. What do the rebels gain by shooting down a civilian aircraft? What does Russia gain from intentionally shooting down a civilian aircraft? Both are assumed to have done it but for what reason? Certainly I don’t see why Russia or the Rebels would do something like that, because if proven to be true it means the west gets drawn into a battle that the rebels seem to be winning. Now Ukraine on the other hand might have a good reason. What better way to shift the tide of war but to shoot down an aircraft and successfully lay blame on the enemies you seem to be losing too.

This feels a lot like the Syrian chemical weapon attack. Let’s make it look like our enemies did something that crossed the line so we can draw our allies in to assist us to fight a war they aren’t really interested in.

Could Russia or the rebels have done this by mistake. That’s certainly a valid possibility. This plane may have flown on the normal flight path and was deemed some kind of threat that it wasn’t.

It’s messy none the less and the next round of sanctions will probably led to Russia cutting off the gas supplies to Europe.

[FlyerInHi]

Malaysian Airlines can’t get a break. 2 tragedies in a row.

[spdrun]

livinincali: I don’t actually give a damn who did it. My point is that flying a commercial flight over an active war zone where SAM sites are known to be in use is a breach of the airline’s duty to keep its customers safe.

[dumbrenter]

[quote=spdrun]livinincali: I don’t actually give a damn who did it. My point is that flying a commercial flight over an active war zone where SAM sites are known to be in use is a breach of the airline’s duty to keep its customers safe.[/quote]

That is a very busy route and other airlines changed route only after this one went down.
What constitutes an active war zone? Would Inglewood or Compton qualify? If so, you just shut down LAX. They got more than enough firepower to bring down anything that flies in those places! Or even lasers for that matter.

[spdrun]

dumbrenter: an active war zone. Meaning that planes flying at cruising altitude had been shot down over the past week!

[flyer]

I used to pilot lots of international flights for a major carrier, but now fly domestic only (semi-retired), and events like this are always shocking. Whose call it was remains to be seen.

[dumbrenter]

[quote=spdrun]dumbrenter: an active war zone. Meaning that planes flying at cruising altitude had been shot down over the past week![/quote]

1. Airspace in cruising altitude for transiting aircraft was NOT closed down; either by Ukraine or any neighboring country.
2. Those that were shot down were not at commercial cruising altitude, they were lower.

[spdrun]

They were (AFAIK) high enough to only be reachable by non-man-portable long-range SAMs. i.e. truck-mounted or fixed SAM sites. The most recent transport shot down was above 20,000 ft when hit.

Flying through airspace where SAMs capable of reaching to your cruising altitude are in active use doesn’t strike me as a terribly bright idea. But hey, if you want to try it, it’s your life 🙂

[FlyerInHi]

I’ll go out on a limb and suggest the Ukrainian military shot down the plane by mistake thinking it was a Russian craft.

[ucodegen]

[quote=spdrun]They were (AFAIK) high enough to only be reachable by non-man-portable long-range SAMs. i.e. truck-mounted or fixed SAM sites. The most recent transport shot down was above 20,000 ft when hit.

Flying through airspace where SAMs capable of reaching to your cruising altitude are in active use doesn’t strike me as a terribly bright idea. But hey, if you want to try it, it’s your life :)[/quote]Can’t get into classified info here.. but the transports were shot down by shoulder mount/manpacks. They were also turbo-props. That means they weren’t above 20,000 ft. AN-26 will do 24,000 – unloaded(maxed out). Shoulder launch have a max altitude of ummm.. lets say peaking at about 12,000 feet vertical (note that this is vertical which is different than circular range). They have to be in range to get an IR lock (photosensor, which means visible range of emitter). Commercials cruise at 35,000 feet.

The system that shot the commercial AC down is not a cheap nor simple system. It is part of a Theater Air Defense System, which means — how they hell did the rebels get a hold of one of those. I suspect this is the first use of one of these by the rebels. All of the other shoot-downs were by shoulder mounts. I suspect the person was trigger happy and didn’t think about the altitude the aircraft was flying at (got to learn to characterize your aircraft before killing it – definitely don’t want to light up something holding a HARM). This system can be built up with multiple radars and launchers to be ‘interlinked’ to extend its range. — I do wonder it is using the launch control software I have come across.

ref including info on other Ukraine shoot-downs:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-separatists-have-shot-down-multiple-aircraft-over-the-past-month-2014-7

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