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FlyerInHi.
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August 25, 2015 at 4:22 PM #788936August 25, 2015 at 5:34 PM #788937
bearishgurl
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]This is one example but there are many smaller (but still fairly large housing and planned communities) happening all along the I-15 corridor in IE and San Diego county.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-property-report-ontario-20141106-story.html
They all start out as bedroom communities then they evolve into Cities, just they way it has been for 75 or more years now.
Here is another in SD
YIKES! Okay, I’m going to take a stab at the proposed Newland Merriam development first (in SD County), which is currently not a whole lot more than a figment of Newland’s imagination:
[img_assist|nid=25468|title=Boulders, scrub & snakes|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=55]
WOWZA! First of all, according to your linked article, Newland RE Group (the *new* developer) somehow acquired (or hasn’t actually acquired yet?) this (unusable) land from Stonegate Dev Group, who couldn’t get approval from SD County just five years ago to build 2630 units on it. Newland’s plan calls for 2135 units which isn’t slated to be before the Board of Supervisors until the end of 2016 (at the earliest). Except for District 3 (NCC) all those same supervisors who were present for the vote five years ago will still be present at the end of 2016 to vote again on a slightly smaller version on 435 acres on the south end of the Merriam Mtns with community parks and trails on 1200 acres in the north end.
This area borders the Deer Springs Road area/exit of Escondido, which for many years was heavily sandbagged for several months per year due to road erosion from rain. But this did nothing for the occasional landslide or rockslide onto the road, which blocked Deer Springs/Mtn Meadows residents from entering /exiting their homes from I-15, until the debris could be removed.
There are burning questions in my mind as to how a development of this magnitude (or any development, for that matter) is going to “pencil out” for a developer in this very rugged, hilly terrain.
Was/is Newland aware that a portion of Deer Springs/Mtn Meadows residents (directly to the south of their proposed development) and a good portion of Valley Center residents (directly to the east) do not have access to sewer? How do they propose to bring sewer lines into these 445 acres to build 2135 homes on?
How are they going to remove all this big rock (average 1500 – 2000 lbs apiece)? With a helicopter?? What about the rest of the rock partially buried that we can’t see in the picture? How are they going to carve out a road wide enough to get heavy equipment up there and how are they going to park it to do its work? How are they going to prevent rock(s) tumbling down onto a “real” road or someone’s land below while they’re working and hurting or killing somebody? If they’ve got all this figured out, how much is all this “rock excavation” going to cost them?
Assuming Newland is able to get a road and sewer up there and pads in for the first phase, how much will each house cost? If they have to charge over $800K each for a <=2000 sf one-story home (due to extensive prep work of the land), who is going to pay that much to live in a smaller-lot subd in Esco/Fallbrook when they can buy an acreage in Deer Springs/Mtn Meadows or Valley Center for the same price or less? Where is the school bus stop going to be? On the I-15 ramp?? How many miles away will the assigned elem school be before the new school is finally completed (the plans only call for an elem school to be built up there). How many homes out of the 2135 planned have to be finished before construction on the school has started? (I see construction slow-going due to several obstacles.) How many minutes away are groceries and gas until Newland can get some services in there? 25 minutes? More? Will a resident have to use I-15 if they need anything at all? What if the demand isn’t there (due to location, price or both) after 1-2 phases are built and Newland decides not to build any more? Will they still build the elementary school and parkland shown in their community plan . . . or some of it? Or will they leave the first 300-400 units up there isolated in their own little “ghost town?” How are these new homeowners going to get fire insurance and how much is it going to cost? How much will Newland pay for fire insurance while it is building and are they going to pass this (exorbitant) cost onto homebuyers? I see from the article, that, in Newland’s plan, the new fire station was scrapped (it was present in the former Stonegate plan). I think that’s a very bad idea. I don’t see fire hydrants (if installed) working very well up there, lol, and I don’t see fire trucks from below being able to get up there very quickly. The way I see it, their only option is fighting fires from the air. How much is this "standby service" going to cost on a homeowner's tax bill .... in addition to MR (and HOA dues?) Sorry, I just don’t think this project is viable. It’s going to be interesting to see how far Newland gets with it. They must be very desperate to develop subdivisions if the Merriam Mtns is the only land in SD County they can come up with in their proposal.
August 25, 2015 at 5:50 PM #788938The-Shoveler
ParticipantBG there is already an approved project just a little north of there DR Horton Horse Creek ridge (a little smaller project but still good sized)
http://www.drhorton.com/California/San-Diego/Fallbrook/Horse-Creek-Ridge.aspx
It is right off the 76 and I-15, there will be a lot of shopping going in there as well on the corners of the 76 and I-15.
Sprawl, it’s coming.
August 25, 2015 at 9:39 PM #788940Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]BG there is already an approved project just a little north of there DR Horton Horse Creek ridge (a little smaller project but still good sized)
http://www.drhorton.com/California/San-Diego/Fallbrook/Horse-Creek-Ridge.aspx
It is right off the 76 and I-15, there will be a lot of shopping going in there as well on the corners of the 76 and I-15.
Sprawl, it’s coming.[/quote]
Hearing Jan. 29 regarding Horse Creek Ridge development in Interstate 15 corridor will establish special tax district
By Joe Naiman on December 19, 2013
On Jan. 29, a public hearing will be held to establish a Community Facilities District (CFD) for the Horse Creek Ridge development, slated for the east side of Interstate 15 near State Route 76.
The hearing will take place at 2 p.m. in the hearing room at the County Operations Center at 5520 Overland Drive in San Diego. A 5-0 San Diego County Board of Supervisors vote Dec. 4 set the hearing date while also finding that the assessment district creation is within the scope of the project’s Environmental Impact Report adopted in May 2011.
“The Community Facilities District is an effective mechanism to fund parks, trails, and open space that will directly serve the future residents of Horse Creek Ridge,” said Supervisor Bill Horn.
The Horse Creek Ridge development is the residential segment of the Campus Park project approved by the Board of Supervisors in May 2011. The approved map calls for 521 single-family residences and 230 condominium dwelling units.
The one percent base property tax will not be sufficient to cover county, San Diego County Flood Control District, or North County Fire Protection District services which will be needed to serve the district. The County of San Diego and Horse Creek Ridge developer D.R. Horton (who purchased the residential component of Campus Park from Passarelle, LLC) have been working to create a CFD which would include a special tax to pay for services not funded by the regular property tax. The revenue would be distributed through a Joint Community Facilities Agreement which stipulates the collection process as well as the distribution process.
The CFD would allow for the collection of three special taxes: one for county services, one for flood control services (although the county supervisors also serve as the board of the San Diego County Flood Control District and the flood control district is administered by the county’s Department of Public Works, it is a separate legal district), and one for fire and emergency medical services. The initial tax for county services would be $655 per single-family residential unit, $496 per multi-family residential unit, and $5,256 per acre of undeveloped property. The base tax to fund flood control needs would be $267 per single-family unit, $203 per multi-family unit, and $2,144 per undeveloped acre.
There would be no levy for fire protection and emergency medical services on the undeveloped property. Each single-family unit would initially be assessed $201 for the fire and emergency medical services tax while each multi-family dwelling unit would be assessed $153.
The initial tax amount is for fiscal year 2014-15. The taxes would be increased by two percent annually to cover the increased cost of services.
“It’s also going to fund the park facilities and trails as well as two large detention basins,” said Michele Stress, the special districts program coordinator for the county’s Department of Public Works. “Those are all public facilities that will be funded by the CFD.”
The property will also be part of Zone A of the San Diego County Street Lighting District and property owners will pay that annual assessment, which is currently $6.48 per benefit unit.
In 2007, the county supervisors adopted Board Policy I-136 which outlines how potential CFD projects will be evaluated, ensures that CFDs are created for the public good, and stipulates disclosure requirements which notify prospective property owners of the assessment. Policy I-136 also defines credit requirements to protect bondholders from default for CFDs which issue bonds for reimbursement of constructed infrastructure, although Horse Creek Ridge will fund services only and will not use long-term bonds. Horse Creek Ridge would be the second CFD in unincorporated San Diego County; the first is in Harmony Grove.
The first step required to form a CFD is a petition from the developer, which has been received along with the proposed boundary map. The Dec. 4 adoption of an intent to form a CFD is the next step, followed by the noticed public hearing and adoption of a resolution forming the CFD. At the Jan. 29 hearing the county supervisors will consider not only the establishment of the Horse Creek Ridge CFD but also the proposed rate and method of apportionment of the collection of the special tax, the Joint Community Facilities Agreements with the North County Fire Protection District and the San Diego County Flood Control District, and other elements of the CFD.
On Oct. 22, the North County Fire Protection District board voted 5-0 to approve the Joint Community Facilities Agreement for Horse Creek Ridge. Seven percent of the one percent base property tax assessed on the land will be provided to the fire district along with the CFD assessment.
Because the proposed CFD area is currently uninhabited and D.R. Horton is the sole property owner, a consent and waiver will allow for a waiver of the normal election procedure to form the CFD and the ballot to form the CFD can be returned immediately upon the adoption of the resolution forming the assessment district.
(emphasis mine)
Well, I haven’t yet had a chance to peruse the minutes from the 1/29/14 BOS meeting but it sounds to me like County is NOT willing to take the hit for the cost of their services rendered to this community (like their brethren cities (stupidly) did in recent years and then when homeowners bailed en masse and defaulted on their property tax bills, they were stuck with the huge payroll for city personnel to service these outlying new subdivisions and ended up having to lay off hundreds of employees. (This is only the 2nd CFD that SD County has had before them for consideration, the first one being in Harmony Grove (Olivenhain Encinitas).)
If my math is right, the cost of all the proposed county services add up to $1129 per SFR unit and $858 per condo unit which will be increased 2% per year to pay for the increasing cost of services for this new area. This means each homeowner’s Mello Roos tax will go up 2% annually, along with the their base ad-valorem (1%) portion of their tax bill. The above amount does not include the cost of building and maintaining “park facilities and trails as well as two large detention basins” maintained by County Public Works.
The developer paid $7400 per acre for county services and flood control only for FY 14/15 ($5256 + $2144). Whether or not the CFD(s) have actually been formed yet, these fees will rise to $7548 per acre in FY 15/16 under DR Horton’s agreement with SD County and no ground has even been broken yet!
Does anybody know if there will be HOA dues as well for the single family homes … or two sets of dues, one for the “Master Assn” and one for each subdivision or condo assn?
WOW, County isn’t fooling around. They’re going to make bank here!
Oh, and I’m sure DR Horton is going to pass those ($3M++?) in fees County will have already collected from them onto the purchase price of each unit. Why not?
Hope all the worker-bee types who end up buying into this project (because they won’t read the fine print) get nice raises every year cuz they’re certainly going to need them! They’re going to get ripped a new a$$hole in compounded increases in their MR fees over their years of ownership.
August 25, 2015 at 9:52 PM #788941ParticipantIf “Horse Creek will fund services only and not use long term bonds,” I’m now reading this that the fees for the CFD(s) (Mello Roos) would be indefinite. The County can never terminate its services to the development, right?
Somebody correct me here if I have this wrong.
August 25, 2015 at 10:04 PM #788942ParticipantBased upon my rough calculations, each single family home will start out with MR about $1450 – $1500 year and condos $1064 – $1140 year which will go up 2% per year into perpetuity because there are no bonds to “retire.”
That has the same financial effect to the homeowner of adding $145K to $150K to the purchase price compared to a similarly-situated living unit nearby which does not have all these fees (Mello Roos) attached to it.
All the former arguments for MR here on the forum stated that they (the Pigg buyers) felt they got a better deal because they got more house for the money than they would have had they NOT bought into a CFD.
At Horse Creek Ridge, the opposite appears to be true due to the negotiations crafty County (who is NOT going to be left holding the bag) made with this developer.
August 25, 2015 at 10:15 PM #788943paramount
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]
I’m not the only one opposed to any more growth. [/quote]
Many of your comments smack of elitism and a “screw you, I’ve got mine” mentality.
And now you want to attack hard working families already struggling and working hard to stay afloat and keep food on the table while raising a family.
All because you believe we should all follow your life philosophy of not living in “exurb hell”. And if not, we’ll take you to the cleaners…again and again.
Isn’t it also because of a level of disdain for the guys who load up their F150’s and Silverado’s and get on the road at 5AM and WORK all day. No glorious pensions or medical benefits or golden parachute. But then these guys aren’t whiney govt workers either.
Just a life of hard work and struggle. It’s true; for the most part these guys didn’t go to a UC. Or even a lowly CSU.Do they even deserve to live here? I mean if you can’t live near ‘desirable’ coastal california, do you even have a life worth living? How could you?
And now elitists and environmental radicals want to punish these families by making it even harder to keep gas in their tanks.
I think that’s one of the reasons I’d much rather live in Temecula: the trendy/hipster elitist attitude so prevelant in San Diego. At least up here in the valley of the dirt people we keep it real.
August 25, 2015 at 11:07 PM #788945Participant[quote=paramount][quote=bearishgurl]
I’m not the only one opposed to any more growth. [/quote]
Many of your comments smack of elitism and a “screw you, I’ve got mine” mentality.
And now you want to attack hard working families already struggling and working hard to stay afloat and keep food on the table while raising a family.
All because you believe we should all follow your life philosophy of not living in “exurb hell”. And if not, we’ll take you to the cleaners…again and again.
Isn’t it also because of a level of disdain for the guys who load up their F150’s and Silverado’s and get on the road at 5AM and WORK all day. No glorious pensions or medical benefits or golden parachute. But then these guys aren’t whiney govt workers either.
Just a life of hard work and struggle. It’s true; for the most part these guys didn’t go to a UC. Or even a lowly CSU.Do they even deserve to live here? I mean if you can’t live near ‘desirable’ coastal california, do you even have a life worth living? How could you?
And now elitists and environmental radicals want to punish these families by making it even harder to keep gas in their tanks.
I think that’s one of the reasons I’d much rather live in Temecula: the trendy/hipster elitist attitude so prevelant in San Diego. At least up here in the valley of the dirt people we keep it real.[/quote]
Gosh, paramount, I’m sorry you feel this way!
None of us has any control over how our gubment decides to run things or over what kind of deals they make with developers. Did it ever occur to you that CA local gubments have allowed themselves to be screwed royally by developers in the past and may now have had enough time to actually learn from their mistakes (and their fellow cities’ and counties’ mistakes) and figure things out before they decide to roll around in the sheets with them?
I don’t live in an “elitest coastal” community and never have, nor do I think Temecula (do you still live there?) is full of “dirt people.” My community is only “coastal” because it is bayfront (so it has near-coastal weather). There is still another mile and a half (as the crow flies or the boat sails) across the bay to the ocean. If I want to DRIVE to Strand State Beach (<3 mi as the "crow flies") it would be 15-16 miles. I've been a very hard "worker bee" almost all of my adult life and have also represented quite a number of "worker bees" in their work-related disputes in my day.
I don't "have mine." The house I have was never my first (or even second) choice but served its purpose for what I needed it for when I purchased it. Sure, I once had a dream that I'd stay in SD if I could be in Pt Loma (where YOU were raised) for the rest of my life but I've been priced out of it. That's life, so I'm looking at other options.
Yes, I feel that most of urban and suburban CA is way too populated and I should not have to wait in line with 45 people just to do one simple thing at the post office. It's ridiculous.
And I also feel that "hardworking people" trying to raise families should not be fleeced with an average of $500 to $1000 per month in MR/HOA expenses when it is totally unnecessary. But you or I can't stop anyone from signing up for this. It's a free country.
Take your complaints to CA cities and counties which have prohibited new subdivisions for decades causing housing prices to escalate into the stratosphere. Riverside County (yours?) and its cities and SD County (mine) seem to still be considering new subdivisions (albeit there really is very, very little room left in SD County, the remaining land has all been purchased up and the land now being considered for subdivisons is very remote and very marginal for residential development purposes, imho.
August 26, 2015 at 12:46 AM #788946FlyerInHi
GuestI’m with shoveler. There will be more growth, either out or up. As much as I hate to stay it, shoveler is right, growth will likely continue to sprawl out because of NIMBYism.
August 26, 2015 at 1:07 AM #788947an
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]I’m with shoveler. There will be more growth, either out or up. As much as I hate to stay it, shoveler is right, growth will likely continue to sprawl out because of NIMBYism.[/quote]
San Diego is building both out and up. For the up part, think Civita in Mission Valley, Stone Creek in Mira Mesa,and One Paseo in Carmel Valley. I’m sure others will come. Once we fully built out the “out” part, I can totally see other smaller cities w/in San Diego County would start to build up and have a more robust downtowns. I’m thinking a long the line of Gaslamp type of mix use developments in Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Poway, etc. But I think that day is a long time from now.August 26, 2015 at 7:50 AM #788948no_such_reality
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]WOW, County isn’t fooling around. They’re going to make bank here!
Oh, and I’m sure DR Horton is going to pass those ($3M++?) in fees County will have already collected from them onto the purchase price of each unit. Why not?
Hope all the worker-bee types who end up buying into this project (because they won’t read the fine print) get nice raises every year cuz they’re certainly going to need them! They’re going to get ripped a new a$$hole in compounded increases in their MR fees over their years of ownership.[/quote]I love the California Public Pay database. It sheds like on the issue. Previously, BG you complained that not enough taxes was the problem. Now you see the county sticking it to the developer.
I’ll pose another piece.
Google is recognised as one of the most lucrative companies to work for. In California, Google’s average salary is $113,929. It comes with an average bonus of $14,494. Lets round that up to $127,500. Health benefits adds some to that.
Now let’s look at something like Los Angeles Fire Department. 3590 employees. Average wages paid, $142,370. Average retirement & benefit cost another $13,060. Total $155,430.
Public Pay DBDo you think Google is paying $28,000 in health and other benefits per employee? I don’t.
Lakeside special district in San Diego county is close. Their pay is lower but benefit cost way higher.
Looking at Median wages is a bit better because of the number of part year payments in the public DB.
So is the problem taxes are too low and the developers are building and we’re not taxing enough or is the problem that we have some agencies getting compensation rivaling the most lucrative company in the country to work at.
August 26, 2015 at 8:17 AM #788949all
ParticipantBut Google employees are mostly in SV, where cost of living is much lower.
August 26, 2015 at 8:18 AM #788950
CoronitaParticipant[quote=all]But Google employees are mostly in SV, where cost of living is much lower.[/quote]
LolAugust 26, 2015 at 12:23 PM #788952Guest[quote=AN][quote=FlyerInHi]I’m with shoveler. There will be more growth, either out or up. As much as I hate to stay it, shoveler is right, growth will likely continue to sprawl out because of NIMBYism.[/quote]
San Diego is building both out and up. For the up part, think Civita in Mission Valley, Stone Creek in Mira Mesa,and One Paseo in Carmel Valley. I’m sure others will come. Once we fully built out the “out” part, I can totally see other smaller cities w/in San Diego County would start to build up and have a more robust downtowns. I’m thinking a long the line of Gaslamp type of mix use developments in Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Poway, etc. But I think that day is a long time from now.[/quote]All good points. I love Civita and that style of denser (but IMO still not dense enough) development. But it’s more upscale than the average housing budget.
As shoveler stated there are lots of development along the 15 and 215 all the way up the Cajon Pass. I know someone who a dozen foreclosures in Moreno Valley. The area is coming back and that was a smart move. Too bad he’s dead now, but I’m sure his widow appreciates the investment.
August 26, 2015 at 1:23 PM #788955Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=AN][quote=FlyerInHi]I’m with shoveler. There will be more growth, either out or up. As much as I hate to stay it, shoveler is right, growth will likely continue to sprawl out because of NIMBYism.[/quote]
San Diego is building both out and up. For the up part, think Civita in Mission Valley, Stone Creek in Mira Mesa,and One Paseo in Carmel Valley. I’m sure others will come. Once we fully built out the “out” part, I can totally see other smaller cities w/in San Diego County would start to build up and have a more robust downtowns. I’m thinking a long the line of Gaslamp type of mix use developments in Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Poway, etc. But I think that day is a long time from now.[/quote]All good points. I love Civita and that style of denser (but IMO still not dense enough) development. But it’s more upscale than the average housing budget.
As shoveler stated there are lots of development along the 15 and 215 all the way up the Cajon Pass. I know someone who a dozen foreclosures in Moreno Valley. The area is coming back and that was a smart move. Too bad he’s dead now, but I’m sure his widow appreciates the investment.[/quote] FIH, the Cajon Pass is being completely revamped. Just as you probably often do, I just came over it on the 8th and there was a 90 minute southbound delay in all lanes. I-215 will eventually be the exact same road as I-15 leading up to Cajon Pass, without the previous two highway switches. A year from now, it will be streamlined and smooth … an amazing feat to a person like me who at one time took Hwy 395 in/out of SD, which wasn’t really a “freeway!” But Cajon Pass is part public lands and is thus not buildable. Beyond it, in the high desert, yes, there is likely still reasonably-priced land (and newer homes) available. But these small cities are too far (and too inconvenient with Cajon Pass in the way) to live in for a 4-5 day week worker bee working south of the pass. They are also very hot & windy and inhospitable (like LV) but they don’t have the fancy infrastructure that LV does.
I’m glad County has wised up and gotten realistic about the cost of servicing outlying CFD’s before letting this developer split town with the eventual proceeds from the sale of their eventual units at Horse Creek Ridge. (I could not see from DR Horton’s website that they have ever built anything in SoCal, so likely wouldn’t care what happens after they fold up shop and leave the county.) When the Harmony Grove CFD was formed (the only other CFD County ever approved), HG had not yet been folded into Encinitas and was unincorporated (part of County). County did not have a lot of experience with CFD formation but they learned their lessons well from their brethren cities (ex: Chula Vista) who were nearly bankrupted from attempting to service multiple CFDs they (shortsightedly and quickly) approved in the nineties and early ’00’s. This was due to mass downgrades in tax assessments for 3 years pursuant to Prop 8, as well as mass tax defaulters until their lenders finally chose to take ownership of the property (years later) making it impossible for City to get reimbursed a fair amount of their “Teeter funds” for their daily operations (including the full penalties eventually paid by property owners or their lenders):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teeter_Plan
Almost ALL of these tax defaults occurred in 91913, 91914 and 91915 (where 95% of the CFD’s in CV lie) but residents of the entire city paid a heavy price in severely reduced services for years for these big blunders.
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