Opinion requested on 92104 South Park Area – please

[sdrealtor]

jp
sending you a PM with some information on a recent property I sold in that are. Hope you find it useful.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?

Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.

Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:

Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522

As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035

Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.

The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402

But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)

Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]

You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.

The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).

Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.

That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).

However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).

Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SND

The bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.

The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.

If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.

As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.

My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.

I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.

I am saying that somebody will.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?

Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.

Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:

Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522

As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035

Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.

The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402

But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)

Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]

You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.

The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).

Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.

That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).

However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).

Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SND

The bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.

The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.

If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.

As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.

My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.

I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.

I am saying that somebody will.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?

Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.

Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:

Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522

As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035

Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.

The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402

But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)

Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]

You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.

The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).

Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.

That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).

However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).

Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SND

The bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.

The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.

If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.

As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.

My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.

I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.

I am saying that somebody will.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?

Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.

Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:

Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522

As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035

Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.

The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402

But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)

Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]

You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.

The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).

Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.

That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).

However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).

Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SND

The bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.

The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.

If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.

As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.

My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.

I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.

I am saying that somebody will.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=jpinpb]UR – since you seem well-acquainted w/the area, do you think that price range entices buyers that were borrowed from the future w/the tax incentives? Do you think it’s at all possible that maybe the prices may adjust a little lower now that the 8k credit is gone and the 10k dwindling and potential more inventory to emerge?

Not trying to argue w/you, so don’t get me wrong. Just trying to figure out if I got it for 400k, if I’m looking at the possiblity of being upside-down in a few months. I mean, you say the price is about right in today’s market.

Also, just checking this address on Redfin they’re coming back w/these prices ranges:

Zillow: Low – 300,685 High – $398,310
E-appraisals: Low – $243,423 High – $329,337
Cyberhomes: Low – $268,843 High – $343,522

As for the sales comps in the past 6 months, Redfin says:
Range: $202,000 – $525,000
Average: $433/Sq. Ft.
This home at $433/Sq. Ft.: $310,035

Granted, the high is 525k. But sales in the past 6 months were also looking at credits to soften the blow.

The Market Overview on SDL has:
Average PPSF $399
Median PPSF $402

But maybe that’s just the price you pay for being on a canyon, although the canyon homes on Commonwealth are lower PPSF. The other one on Westland was about the same PPSF, but as I said, it was a much bigger house (extra bath)

Thanks for the CMA links.[/quote]

You have a point with the 8k credit.
But we are still talking about less than 2% of current mean for that type of product.

The difficulty with ppsf and e-appraisals is that raw numbers for a geographic area do not yet include 2 key defining factors. Specifically, they exclude A: major lines of cleavage (in this case freeways and canyons) and B: room count (which is the primary non-neighborhood referent for desire).

Most simple valuations (e-estimates, zestimates) basically map the lat/long of the subject property and draw a circle around it with a given radius (like a quarter or a half mile) and calculate value based on the sold properties in that circle.

That works fine for places like La Costa or Temecula where you have miles and miles of roughly similar products (like literally thousands of detached houses with 4-6 bedrooms and 2000-3500 sqft).

However, in older neighborhoods, this can be a real problem. In the case with the subject property, it means that it will include larger 3br/2ba houses (lower ppsf), properties east of 805 and 15 in Cherokee Point and Fairmount Park (also lower ppsf) and probably they include non-detached properties (dramatically lower ppsf).

Here is an example of what I am talking about:
http://tempo5.sandicor.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1122343078&s=SND&t=SND

The bank used a valuation that was done either by out-of-area valuators (brokers or appraisers) or done online by zillow or trulia or redfin.

The property listed at $174,000 and closed all cash at $350,000 after a 3 week escrow.

If they had been entertaining all financed offers, I suspect that they could have gotten about 400,000.

As it is, they got about 200 offers in the first 2 days.

My point is that you have to do comparisons and valuations somewhat manually to filter out noise.

I am not saying that JP should spend $399k on this place.

I am saying that somebody will.

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much echos what I sent her in the PM. I also added lot size in addition to location and making sure you are comparing similar houses of the same size when doing comps. When you do braod based comps around a property it creates issues even in places like La Costa. Defintely need to look for true comparable properties in that kind of analysis not just properties that sold in the same ZIP code.

If the price a house like that ever got into the low 300″s there wouldnt be enough paper in the listing agents fax machine to field all the offers. Prices in places like that are pretty affordable. if they get more affordable the demand skyrockets and good luck being the lotto winner who gets the house.

This is an expensive place to live and I dont see that changing.

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much echos what I sent her in the PM. I also added lot size in addition to location and making sure you are comparing similar houses of the same size when doing comps. When you do braod based comps around a property it creates issues even in places like La Costa. Defintely need to look for true comparable properties in that kind of analysis not just properties that sold in the same ZIP code.

If the price a house like that ever got into the low 300″s there wouldnt be enough paper in the listing agents fax machine to field all the offers. Prices in places like that are pretty affordable. if they get more affordable the demand skyrockets and good luck being the lotto winner who gets the house.

This is an expensive place to live and I dont see that changing.

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much echos what I sent her in the PM. I also added lot size in addition to location and making sure you are comparing similar houses of the same size when doing comps. When you do braod based comps around a property it creates issues even in places like La Costa. Defintely need to look for true comparable properties in that kind of analysis not just properties that sold in the same ZIP code.

If the price a house like that ever got into the low 300″s there wouldnt be enough paper in the listing agents fax machine to field all the offers. Prices in places like that are pretty affordable. if they get more affordable the demand skyrockets and good luck being the lotto winner who gets the house.

This is an expensive place to live and I dont see that changing.

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much echos what I sent her in the PM. I also added lot size in addition to location and making sure you are comparing similar houses of the same size when doing comps. When you do braod based comps around a property it creates issues even in places like La Costa. Defintely need to look for true comparable properties in that kind of analysis not just properties that sold in the same ZIP code.

If the price a house like that ever got into the low 300″s there wouldnt be enough paper in the listing agents fax machine to field all the offers. Prices in places like that are pretty affordable. if they get more affordable the demand skyrockets and good luck being the lotto winner who gets the house.

This is an expensive place to live and I dont see that changing.

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much echos what I sent her in the PM. I also added lot size in addition to location and making sure you are comparing similar houses of the same size when doing comps. When you do braod based comps around a property it creates issues even in places like La Costa. Defintely need to look for true comparable properties in that kind of analysis not just properties that sold in the same ZIP code.

If the price a house like that ever got into the low 300″s there wouldnt be enough paper in the listing agents fax machine to field all the offers. Prices in places like that are pretty affordable. if they get more affordable the demand skyrockets and good luck being the lotto winner who gets the house.

This is an expensive place to live and I dont see that changing.

[sdcellar]

It didn’t used to be, at least not at a PPSF-level. (or actually it maybe kind of was, but nothing in comparison to today.)

What a sad way to piss away the best interest rates of our lifetimes. It’ll be very interesting to see how this turns out in the long run.

[sdcellar]

It didn’t used to be, at least not at a PPSF-level. (or actually it maybe kind of was, but nothing in comparison to today.)

What a sad way to piss away the best interest rates of our lifetimes. It’ll be very interesting to see how this turns out in the long run.

[sdcellar]

It didn’t used to be, at least not at a PPSF-level. (or actually it maybe kind of was, but nothing in comparison to today.)

What a sad way to piss away the best interest rates of our lifetimes. It’ll be very interesting to see how this turns out in the long run.

[sdcellar]

It didn’t used to be, at least not at a PPSF-level. (or actually it maybe kind of was, but nothing in comparison to today.)

What a sad way to piss away the best interest rates of our lifetimes. It’ll be very interesting to see how this turns out in the long run.

[Author]

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