One word: OIL

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=stockstradr]Lotsa rants on here about the leveraged ETF’s

Look, just go to http://finance.yahoo.com/
and plot the ETF versus the index / commodity it claims to have a relationship with.

Of course I do that before I buy ProShares, Short S&P500 “SH” or whatever.

Now when I see a perfect response per formula, between my chosen ETF and the matching index, then I have ZERO interest in reading the rants and raves of people on here spreading rumors and nonsense about what ETF’s actually do.

[/quote]

Easy there! If you’re right, that is sufficient vindication. Some of us (me in particular) didn’t even know that you could long commodities.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[stockstradr]

so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did. I bought the oil ETF’s on Dec 18th, and then I (thankfully) doubled-down on Dec 26th as oil and associated ETF’s bottomed.

Here’s what I bought to the tune of 20% of my portfolio. The notes show the price increase off the Dec 25/26 bottom, which I acknowledge is where I added to my stake, not the price at which I bought all my shares.

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE (went from 10 to 13.7)

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDE OIL DOUBLE LONG ETN (went from 2 to 2.55)

USL UNITED STS 12 MONTH OIL FD LP UNIT BEN INT (went from 28 to 30)

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets. And oil has moved even higher very recently which is not yet shown up completely in those ETF’s, but it will early next week, unless oil has a horrible weekend.

Frankly, I’m not sure my next step. I think 2009 will bring oil prices that are again lower, lower even than $35/bbl. I might take my profits next week on those oil ETF bets. Yet, it is likely Israel will escalate its attack on Gaza which is helping drive oil up.

Have I lost any money this month? Yes, I bought SDS on 16 Dec, shorting the S&P500 and by the 22nd I was up over 10% on that bet; I should have dumped it then. I didn’t see the discontinuity coming that happened on Dec 22/23 as SDS went off-track from the S&P500 and dropped about 14% in the opening hours of Dec 23rd. Also, while I did see a fool’s rally forming with the S&P500 at 860, I procrastinated on selling SDS and going long. SO I’m still short the S&P500 which has moved up to 903, leaving me down 12% on that short-S&P500 bet. Keep in mind I picked up that short-S&P500 bet when the S&P500 was 910 so that tells you how much that Dec 23rd discontinuity on SDS ruined that bet, which would otherwise have been in-the-money now.

So the last couple weeks have been a wash between my short S&P500 (losses) and my long oil ETF (gains); yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

[davelj]

A couple of your recent Greatest Hits, “stockstradr”:

[quote=stockstradr]
so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did.

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets.

Yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

**********

I thought gleefully, “Oh dear God: PLEASE continue to let my market trades enter stock markets filled with people like this discussing inanely obvious crap amongst themselves! (So I can continue to out-trade them and take their money)”

I just turned away from the pointless banter, and went and bought my oil at that price. Now this week we find oil is over $40/bbl and I’ve made loads of money again.

*********

You sell because people like me are telling you to sell, and we have great track records.

You listen because I saw the financial crisis coming three years ago so I successfully shorted the markets and so appreciated my 401K by 50% this year (including commission costs).

[/quote]

Now, I for one, do NOT find these self-congratulatory posts annoying, but rather find them bizarre and mildly entertaining.

I’m assuming you’ve heard of the following: Victor Niederhoffer, John Devaney, John Merriwether, (Nobel Laureate) Myron Scholes, Jeff Gendell, and Bill Miller. The one thing they all have in common (and there are MANY more like them) is that they had huge returns for relatively long periods of time only to entirely or almost entirely blow their investors up. Niederhoffer returned 40%+ annualized over 10 years then blew up entirely (and almost took Refco down with him). Bill Miller outperformed the S&P500 for 15 years and then his fund declined by 60%+. Jeff Gendell returned had two 100%+ years, but erased all of that and then some with a -80% year this year. His overall record is a shambles. And these examples are LONG term. Not a year (or two) like yours.

Here’s my point. You MUST know that a year or two’s (or three or four’s…) good trading returns are completely and entirely meaningless in assessing anyone’s true trading/investing prowess. And particularly without knowing what risks were taken in order to generate such returns. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not a complete fool or investing neophyte, so you must be aware of this fact.

And obviously such comments serve no purpose whatsoever for the other posters here (well, other than entertainment value on my part and perhaps a few others). There’s no added value, so they must be written on your behalf.

So… these posts of yours drawing attention to your recent successes (assuming you’re not making them up – again, I give you the benefit of the doubt) beg the questions: What need on your part do they fill? What point do they serve?

Other parts of some of your posts seem sensible. Like you, I’m intrigued with oil. (Which should be a contrary indicator for the short-term, as I learned long ago that I was not a good short-term trader, which is why I’m in PE. But I digress.) But then the blustery posts (“Ma! Look how much I’m up this year!”) make me scratch my head and wonder if, in fact, you’re just some enormously insecure clown seeking approval from anonymous posters on the internet.

So, as a student of the human condition, I gotta ask… What gives, man? Humor me.

[davelj]

A couple of your recent Greatest Hits, “stockstradr”:

[quote=stockstradr]
so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did.

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets.

Yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

**********

I thought gleefully, “Oh dear God: PLEASE continue to let my market trades enter stock markets filled with people like this discussing inanely obvious crap amongst themselves! (So I can continue to out-trade them and take their money)”

I just turned away from the pointless banter, and went and bought my oil at that price. Now this week we find oil is over $40/bbl and I’ve made loads of money again.

*********

You sell because people like me are telling you to sell, and we have great track records.

You listen because I saw the financial crisis coming three years ago so I successfully shorted the markets and so appreciated my 401K by 50% this year (including commission costs).

[/quote]

Now, I for one, do NOT find these self-congratulatory posts annoying, but rather find them bizarre and mildly entertaining.

I’m assuming you’ve heard of the following: Victor Niederhoffer, John Devaney, John Merriwether, (Nobel Laureate) Myron Scholes, Jeff Gendell, and Bill Miller. The one thing they all have in common (and there are MANY more like them) is that they had huge returns for relatively long periods of time only to entirely or almost entirely blow their investors up. Niederhoffer returned 40%+ annualized over 10 years then blew up entirely (and almost took Refco down with him). Bill Miller outperformed the S&P500 for 15 years and then his fund declined by 60%+. Jeff Gendell returned had two 100%+ years, but erased all of that and then some with a -80% year this year. His overall record is a shambles. And these examples are LONG term. Not a year (or two) like yours.

Here’s my point. You MUST know that a year or two’s (or three or four’s…) good trading returns are completely and entirely meaningless in assessing anyone’s true trading/investing prowess. And particularly without knowing what risks were taken in order to generate such returns. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not a complete fool or investing neophyte, so you must be aware of this fact.

And obviously such comments serve no purpose whatsoever for the other posters here (well, other than entertainment value on my part and perhaps a few others). There’s no added value, so they must be written on your behalf.

So… these posts of yours drawing attention to your recent successes (assuming you’re not making them up – again, I give you the benefit of the doubt) beg the questions: What need on your part do they fill? What point do they serve?

Other parts of some of your posts seem sensible. Like you, I’m intrigued with oil. (Which should be a contrary indicator for the short-term, as I learned long ago that I was not a good short-term trader, which is why I’m in PE. But I digress.) But then the blustery posts (“Ma! Look how much I’m up this year!”) make me scratch my head and wonder if, in fact, you’re just some enormously insecure clown seeking approval from anonymous posters on the internet.

So, as a student of the human condition, I gotta ask… What gives, man? Humor me.

[davelj]

A couple of your recent Greatest Hits, “stockstradr”:

[quote=stockstradr]
so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did.

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets.

Yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

**********

I thought gleefully, “Oh dear God: PLEASE continue to let my market trades enter stock markets filled with people like this discussing inanely obvious crap amongst themselves! (So I can continue to out-trade them and take their money)”

I just turned away from the pointless banter, and went and bought my oil at that price. Now this week we find oil is over $40/bbl and I’ve made loads of money again.

*********

You sell because people like me are telling you to sell, and we have great track records.

You listen because I saw the financial crisis coming three years ago so I successfully shorted the markets and so appreciated my 401K by 50% this year (including commission costs).

[/quote]

Now, I for one, do NOT find these self-congratulatory posts annoying, but rather find them bizarre and mildly entertaining.

I’m assuming you’ve heard of the following: Victor Niederhoffer, John Devaney, John Merriwether, (Nobel Laureate) Myron Scholes, Jeff Gendell, and Bill Miller. The one thing they all have in common (and there are MANY more like them) is that they had huge returns for relatively long periods of time only to entirely or almost entirely blow their investors up. Niederhoffer returned 40%+ annualized over 10 years then blew up entirely (and almost took Refco down with him). Bill Miller outperformed the S&P500 for 15 years and then his fund declined by 60%+. Jeff Gendell returned had two 100%+ years, but erased all of that and then some with a -80% year this year. His overall record is a shambles. And these examples are LONG term. Not a year (or two) like yours.

Here’s my point. You MUST know that a year or two’s (or three or four’s…) good trading returns are completely and entirely meaningless in assessing anyone’s true trading/investing prowess. And particularly without knowing what risks were taken in order to generate such returns. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not a complete fool or investing neophyte, so you must be aware of this fact.

And obviously such comments serve no purpose whatsoever for the other posters here (well, other than entertainment value on my part and perhaps a few others). There’s no added value, so they must be written on your behalf.

So… these posts of yours drawing attention to your recent successes (assuming you’re not making them up – again, I give you the benefit of the doubt) beg the questions: What need on your part do they fill? What point do they serve?

Other parts of some of your posts seem sensible. Like you, I’m intrigued with oil. (Which should be a contrary indicator for the short-term, as I learned long ago that I was not a good short-term trader, which is why I’m in PE. But I digress.) But then the blustery posts (“Ma! Look how much I’m up this year!”) make me scratch my head and wonder if, in fact, you’re just some enormously insecure clown seeking approval from anonymous posters on the internet.

So, as a student of the human condition, I gotta ask… What gives, man? Humor me.

[davelj]

A couple of your recent Greatest Hits, “stockstradr”:

[quote=stockstradr]
so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did.

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets.

Yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

**********

I thought gleefully, “Oh dear God: PLEASE continue to let my market trades enter stock markets filled with people like this discussing inanely obvious crap amongst themselves! (So I can continue to out-trade them and take their money)”

I just turned away from the pointless banter, and went and bought my oil at that price. Now this week we find oil is over $40/bbl and I’ve made loads of money again.

*********

You sell because people like me are telling you to sell, and we have great track records.

You listen because I saw the financial crisis coming three years ago so I successfully shorted the markets and so appreciated my 401K by 50% this year (including commission costs).

[/quote]

Now, I for one, do NOT find these self-congratulatory posts annoying, but rather find them bizarre and mildly entertaining.

I’m assuming you’ve heard of the following: Victor Niederhoffer, John Devaney, John Merriwether, (Nobel Laureate) Myron Scholes, Jeff Gendell, and Bill Miller. The one thing they all have in common (and there are MANY more like them) is that they had huge returns for relatively long periods of time only to entirely or almost entirely blow their investors up. Niederhoffer returned 40%+ annualized over 10 years then blew up entirely (and almost took Refco down with him). Bill Miller outperformed the S&P500 for 15 years and then his fund declined by 60%+. Jeff Gendell returned had two 100%+ years, but erased all of that and then some with a -80% year this year. His overall record is a shambles. And these examples are LONG term. Not a year (or two) like yours.

Here’s my point. You MUST know that a year or two’s (or three or four’s…) good trading returns are completely and entirely meaningless in assessing anyone’s true trading/investing prowess. And particularly without knowing what risks were taken in order to generate such returns. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not a complete fool or investing neophyte, so you must be aware of this fact.

And obviously such comments serve no purpose whatsoever for the other posters here (well, other than entertainment value on my part and perhaps a few others). There’s no added value, so they must be written on your behalf.

So… these posts of yours drawing attention to your recent successes (assuming you’re not making them up – again, I give you the benefit of the doubt) beg the questions: What need on your part do they fill? What point do they serve?

Other parts of some of your posts seem sensible. Like you, I’m intrigued with oil. (Which should be a contrary indicator for the short-term, as I learned long ago that I was not a good short-term trader, which is why I’m in PE. But I digress.) But then the blustery posts (“Ma! Look how much I’m up this year!”) make me scratch my head and wonder if, in fact, you’re just some enormously insecure clown seeking approval from anonymous posters on the internet.

So, as a student of the human condition, I gotta ask… What gives, man? Humor me.

[davelj]

A couple of your recent Greatest Hits, “stockstradr”:

[quote=stockstradr]
so here’s my annoying I-told-you-so, albeit a bit premature.

OIL. I told you all to buy oil, told you all to starting nibbling at about $37/bbl, and increase your stake if it hits $35/bbl, which it did.

So I’m well in-the-money on those bets.

Yet this year-end has me closing the year with my portfolio at a 52-week high with a net gain of 51% (excluding all 401K/ROTH contributions, but including all costs) so I’m happy with that.

**********

I thought gleefully, “Oh dear God: PLEASE continue to let my market trades enter stock markets filled with people like this discussing inanely obvious crap amongst themselves! (So I can continue to out-trade them and take their money)”

I just turned away from the pointless banter, and went and bought my oil at that price. Now this week we find oil is over $40/bbl and I’ve made loads of money again.

*********

You sell because people like me are telling you to sell, and we have great track records.

You listen because I saw the financial crisis coming three years ago so I successfully shorted the markets and so appreciated my 401K by 50% this year (including commission costs).

[/quote]

Now, I for one, do NOT find these self-congratulatory posts annoying, but rather find them bizarre and mildly entertaining.

I’m assuming you’ve heard of the following: Victor Niederhoffer, John Devaney, John Merriwether, (Nobel Laureate) Myron Scholes, Jeff Gendell, and Bill Miller. The one thing they all have in common (and there are MANY more like them) is that they had huge returns for relatively long periods of time only to entirely or almost entirely blow their investors up. Niederhoffer returned 40%+ annualized over 10 years then blew up entirely (and almost took Refco down with him). Bill Miller outperformed the S&P500 for 15 years and then his fund declined by 60%+. Jeff Gendell returned had two 100%+ years, but erased all of that and then some with a -80% year this year. His overall record is a shambles. And these examples are LONG term. Not a year (or two) like yours.

Here’s my point. You MUST know that a year or two’s (or three or four’s…) good trading returns are completely and entirely meaningless in assessing anyone’s true trading/investing prowess. And particularly without knowing what risks were taken in order to generate such returns. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not a complete fool or investing neophyte, so you must be aware of this fact.

And obviously such comments serve no purpose whatsoever for the other posters here (well, other than entertainment value on my part and perhaps a few others). There’s no added value, so they must be written on your behalf.

So… these posts of yours drawing attention to your recent successes (assuming you’re not making them up – again, I give you the benefit of the doubt) beg the questions: What need on your part do they fill? What point do they serve?

Other parts of some of your posts seem sensible. Like you, I’m intrigued with oil. (Which should be a contrary indicator for the short-term, as I learned long ago that I was not a good short-term trader, which is why I’m in PE. But I digress.) But then the blustery posts (“Ma! Look how much I’m up this year!”) make me scratch my head and wonder if, in fact, you’re just some enormously insecure clown seeking approval from anonymous posters on the internet.

So, as a student of the human condition, I gotta ask… What gives, man? Humor me.

[5yearwaiter]

Ok what’s you all prediction for 2009 based on these? what is Oil low and hig figures and is there any relation that tends towards Gold and Silver too?

[5yearwaiter]

Ok what’s you all prediction for 2009 based on these? what is Oil low and hig figures and is there any relation that tends towards Gold and Silver too?

[5yearwaiter]

Ok what’s you all prediction for 2009 based on these? what is Oil low and hig figures and is there any relation that tends towards Gold and Silver too?

[5yearwaiter]

Ok what’s you all prediction for 2009 based on these? what is Oil low and hig figures and is there any relation that tends towards Gold and Silver too?

[Author]

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