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March 8, 2021 at 2:29 PM #820770March 8, 2021 at 3:12 PM #820771
ncsd760
ParticipantAlso proffhoff I know all of those houses! How funny. We considered 1Channel when new at multiple points and were on the Shea interest/priority list. Some terrible lots and some phenomenal ones but isn’t that always the story. We tend to be annoyingly picky so did not get an opportunity for a lot we adored though came close. The new zealand style reminded me of Maravu when I first saw them and that neighborhood is special to me.
I love the floorplan of the unpermitted loggia house (the 3273 sf plan – I think “plan three”). I think they also had some ocean view from the front which I liked. Lot of resales on the lower half of the tract off Saxony since new and much fewer up top on the Quail entrance which is about how the interest list went too in terms of demand.
March 8, 2021 at 6:13 PM #820773sdrealtor
ParticipantThank you both for chiming in and welcome to the neighborhood. I agree with pretty much everything you said.
Ive always considered the various communities of Encinitas and La Costa as pretty much different shades of the same place as we all eat, drink, shop, send our kids to school, see same doctors etc. I’ve lived in both over the years. But there are definitely a menagerie of folks around here.
Its funny because most of the complaining comes from new arrivals who view this as an upscale, expensive beautiful community while ignoring what is plain to see. This is a funky place and the long timers like it that way. Ive been here almost 30 years but dont consider myself a local and likely never will. Thats my next door neighbor who is 3rd generation Encinitas.
Leucadia is definitely another world than over the hill where I am and I envy you being there. For a variety of reasons (taxes, Ive got one of the bigger lots in LCV and frankly I like it here) Im dug in here. But I would happily reside west of 5 if not for those things. Hope you are enjoying it all!
With all that said, following inventory as closely as I have have for decades it feels like supply is down almost 50% from where it typically is. That is compounded by demand being much higher than ever. I wouldnt read much into any short term fluctuations you see as there are many buyers for every home. I’ll continue tracking my numbers as I have for many years and if there is any wind of change I’ll see it coming
oh and Ithose prime one channel lots probably went to friends and family of the builder. They always do
March 8, 2021 at 9:38 PM #820774profhoff
ParticipantFun thread. When Channel Island opened up we went and got on the list, but were too far down for the list when the first lots off Quail Gardens came online. However, I called every week to see where I was and remarkably plenty of people came on and off that list. And we got offered a lot but didn’t like it. Then one day we got a call that the buyer on one of the west facing ocean lots fell through they offered it to us.
The problem was that the useable backyard was tiny compared to the ones on the side with the SW views and it kept getting smaller as they continued to mark the lots. It was the house directly south of what became the fire lane between the Saxony part of the tract and the Quail Gardens part of the tract. Plus, it was a big house and so the little backyard seemed out of balance.
Anyway, we didn’t buy it, but it goes to show that persistence can pay off.
March 9, 2021 at 10:25 AM #820775ParticipantYes lots of fun talking about this micro market. I had a couple clients interested in Channel island and went opening day. It was craziest release Ive ever seen. Cars parked all over Quail Gardens and there were traffic cops directing traffic.
To get a house there you had to register very early and be fully pre-qualified by their lender just to get on the list. I think you answered your own question on that one lot also. Overbuilt house on a small lot next to fire road with perceived lack of privacy made it less desireable up on that ridge.
The most premium lots not only have a view but room outside to build outdoor amenities to enjoy it. After that I’d put large non-view lots unimpaired by road noise above a view lot with a very small lot. I did some cross checking and as expected the community has a healthy share of people in real estate, building supplies, lending, building supplies and an attorney that worked for the builder. Its also hard to determine casual relationships to the builder but Im sure there were few also. The higher price point may have kept it from going all that way but there was plenty of that.
I learned this the hard way 15 years ago. I was #1 on the priority list for the Centex tract in LC Oaks and deferred for a specific lot. It was an oversized lot with the house positioned such that it had a good size backyard and an equally sized side yard that had an ocean view but was not priced for that view. Plan was to build kids yard in back and adults yard on the side. When I went to the release it was supposed to be in, I was told it was already gone to “friends & family” of the builder as were some other primo lots. In the long run it was probably better that I stayed put so no love lost there but thats the way the game is played.
Arroyo Vista was probably the most egregious example of that. The builder, Continental was sold mid stream to DR Horten. Continental execs and employees grabbed all the best lots and there were some really big exceptional ones there. Not only that, but knowing they were all gonna buy there they raised the bar on standard upgrades far above anythng seen prior as they knew they would get those for free themselves. Im sure a bunch of em are still hanging out there though many moved on sice making a relative killing when they resold.
March 9, 2021 at 1:59 PM #820777ParticipantYes very fun talking about this niche little market and I am glad I finally made an account here after reading these chats for 10 years or so.
I was disappointed with the lot size of some of the due west facing 1 Channel houses as well profhoff. We didn’t get a Plan 2 (bigger ranch plan) or Plan 3 and just ended up biting the bullet and moving fully west of 5 but east of the 101 where it is walkable and close to our favorite eats in funky town but a bit quieter than living west of 101. Our house is sub 3000sf but that is fine for us.
sdr we were original LCO residents so I am embarrassingly familiar w the plans and lots though we didn’t adore living in LCO for many reasons most of which have to do with the fact that we didn’t have elementary age kids when we lived there, we really wanted Encinitas or a more mature/smaller/less sterile La Costa tract, and that we didn’t end up liking our lot or plan though we got a killer deal. Those Centex and Davidson center courtyard plans in the “OG” Oaks are lovely and I also like the Arroyo Vista courtyard plan that has a master down.
I think LCV where you are sdrealtor feels infinitely closer to shopping and dining that I personally frequent and the leasing people screwed the La Costa Town Square shopping center with odd stores and generally meh restaurants. Also disappointed by Arterro homes that of course, we considered remembering the Davidson/Starboard hype in the Oaks. 2015 me was not willing to pay low 1mms to back to the butt end of a Super Vons and hear road noise on minuscule lots especially coming from the Oaks and being indifferent about the area.
We actually considered buying the former model of the Arroyo Vista center courtyard plan when it came up for sale in 2015. It had a blank canvas yard to hardscape and drop in a pool. We backed away because we recalled from our Diegueno and OPE days that all the parents park on that entry Arroyo Vista street to drop off and pick up their kids and we are too OCD to handle someone’s big Suburban parked in front of our house 2x a day 5x a week. I think that house resold recently. Embarrassed to have followed all these communities closely but it’s so interesting to see the area change and a memory trip to recall past purchases/offers/etc.
March 9, 2021 at 2:39 PM #820778ParticipantAs I mentioned in MM monitor we are next level here also
New listings 17 – falling off a cliff is not an exageration. We should be seeing an acceleration in new inventory not vice versa this time of year
New Pendings of 34 – massive demand!
Thats a -17 for the week.
Closed sales at 29
Price reductions at 3.
Total houses for sale down to 42 with median of $2.33M.
As I mentioned a house down the street 3/2 2000 SF 1 story built in 99 nicely updated since backing up to open space hit market at $1.2M. This time last year maybe $1.05M for that house. Closed for $1.35M cash with 10 day escrow. While it may be a slight exception thats 30% y-o-y.
Things have sure changed fast around here. This is a very different place than it was which may explain something im starting to see.
There are a lot of older homes in Encinitas/Leucadia that have been in families for decades. They seem to stay that way and sales are fairly rare. As I review the new listings each day I get a sense we are seeing more of those hitting the market than we usually do. There was some elevated turnover in the late 90’s but its been fairly quiet for the last 20 years. Maybe we will start to see more of the prime lot older properties hit the market.
Its just an early feeling now but perhaps Im onto something that Im gonna keep following. I’ll call it one part astronomical prices to cash out, one part Prop 19 taking away low inherited tax basis and one whopping part we dont like that this place is becoming more and more impacted by rich outsiders. Somethings going on….
Looking at the active inventory most of it is in Encinitas rather than S Carlsbad which is not typical. Of course it is the higher priced stuff that sits on the market a bit longer and thats Encinitas but S Carlsbad is blowing up.
There is 1 detached house in 92011 right now and it is a trustee sale (husband passed away a couple years ago and wife either passed also or incapacitated). Thats basically ZERO on the market.
Things arent much better in the much larger 92009 that is my home. There are 13 on the market of which 6 have been on less than a week. Of the 7 on more than a week 5 are over $2M (two years ago there would be a small handful of sales above $2M each year), one is a BK sale and the other has been off and on due to something going on with seller so hasnt really been available to see. It is extremely rare for a home to last more than a week these days. Those that do are either sorting out a bidding war, very high end where demand is slower or vastly overpriced. I dont think it could be any hotter but Ive saying that and it keeps getting hotter
March 9, 2021 at 3:42 PM #820779Participantncsd760 – it is so fun to think about all the real estate we’ve trudged through over the years. We looked for almost 4 years to find the “right” house and I used to joke with our long-suffering agent that she would “fire” us. But we did make offers! And we did get into escrow! We just couldn’t get it to stick.
The place we finally bought is east of 5 – but it checks every other box and then some. We realized we really loved Leucadia and “funky town” and didn’t want to venture too far.
As soon as renovations are done, we’ll be selling our current house. I wonder what the market will look like in May? Will it slow down? Will there be even more frenzy? Realistically, how high can things go? And rates are already creeping up.
What does sdrealtor’s crystal ball say about the <$1.5m market in SW Carlsbad?
March 9, 2021 at 3:51 PM #820780ParticipantEn Feugo and its not <1.5M. I think I remember which community you live in and one just closed off market for 1.575M at #6992. Not sure if similar to what you have or not but things down there are north of 1.5 now. Interesting also that you mentioned "she" as IIRC your perhaps now prior agent was a he
March 9, 2021 at 3:53 PM #820781ParticipantI love to see the updates. Here’s one that popped my eyes out:
Pending in 4 days and closed for $200k+ over list.
March 9, 2021 at 4:03 PM #820783ParticipantTo add to your list sdrealtor of what’s going on, you can’t leave out the pandemic! I’ve noticed that places offering office space, good sized backyards, and areas in the house for different functions are moving quickly.
The ‘hood I’m in doesn’t really have backyards, but the proximity to the ocean is big plus and maybe makes up for the little backyards.
I’ll add that our new house is a single story! SCORE.
March 9, 2021 at 4:05 PM #820782ParticipantAgent that sold us the c’bad house 8 years ago was a he. Started working with a diff agent about 4+ years ago once we got serious about finding a “coastal retreat suitable for eventual retirement.” She’s intimately familiar with the NCC area.
Yeah, 6992 Sweetwater closed for $1.575m and that had the hell buffed out of it. We’re a model match, but sellers did a boffo remodel and it sold instantly. That price was a shocker.
But wait, there’s more! 616 Saltgrass (bigger model and nice but not as buffed as 6992) just closed for $1.575m – $80k over list. Also went pending quick.
So, with comps like that, I don’t see anything listing in here that doesn’t start with $1.5Xm, do you?
Late last year, sales were in the $1.4xm range.
WOW WOW WOW.
March 9, 2021 at 4:19 PM #820784ParticipantProfhoff congrats on coming to Leucadia! A single-story is a score. Water’s End is very pretty and I think active families will always want that area because it’s walking distance to surf and Pacific Rim is the best Cbad elementary school.
We are in a similar-to-Water’s End neighborhood off of Vulcan and very happy. A single level is VERY appealing as we have 2 story.
I think the whole pandemic is what has made lesser LC Oaks houses sell for so much. There are just more rooms and enough yards. Recent sales on Corte Brisa and Sitio Corazon/Sitio Caliente have stunned me. I remember when ColRich was sitting on an inventory of those new in 2011-2012 and begging you to take one.
Also considering we are now in the sport of riffing about individual homes (I loved that Olivenhain one) I am watching 348 Fulvia https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/348-Fulvia-St-92024/home/167449771. I don’t think the lot was the better one of these by any stretch (weird yard and neighbors above you) but it sold for $2.4 something new not 18 months ago.
March 9, 2021 at 5:01 PM #820785Participantncsd760, if you live where I think you do, then we came so close to buying there too, though we never made it into escrow in that particular development.
There was one we just loved the look of – we called it the “koi pond” house, but by the time we could get some time to go over to see it, it was in escrow.
It’s on the market again and finally went pending though it took a while. there was another one in there that backed up to a house with RVs packed in the backyard and the sellers put some bushes up, but I think it wasn’t enough and they gave up trying to sell and are renting it.
That’s a great ‘hood because it will soon have the roundabout and train crossing. I can’t wait to see how it’s going to work getting rid of parking along the train tracks on the 101.
In my next post I’ll talk about Azure Leucadia – where the eye popper on Fulvia went pending with a RIDICULOUS list price. Just insane.
March 9, 2021 at 5:10 PM #820786ParticipantWe intimately knew Azure Leucadia. I was following all the news about the developer for YEARS and when the last lawsuit finally fell away, I called the developer and begged them to add me to the list. They did and claimed I was “near the top.”
We really liked the lone single story on Fulvia but “near the top” doesn’t mean “at the top” so the single story went to somebody else. But we had our pick of the rest and decided on the one directly east of the single story. So things are chugging along, we have the contracts, it’s all good, and then our landscape guy goes over and gets very worried about the drainage and pipe situation. And if you know Fulvia, it floods at the corner of Fulvia and Hymmetus, so we were already a little worried, even though we weren’t at the corner.
Anyway, we passed, and they ended up selling it pretty quick. Ocean views were spectacular from the second story and it was west of 5.
But there wasn’t much backyard and the neighbors behind were in your face.
The one on the corner (where it floods) took forever to sell. we drove by last time it rained and you won’t believe what the owners of the corner house did – they put in another house in their side/back yard (ADU I guess), completely ruining the look and feel of what would have been our house.
You have to drive by there and look at it.
And the one on the north end of Fulvia is next to the biobasin and also was one of the last to sell. Neighbor impact is insane and that went pending quickly so we have to assume full price or close enough for $3.8m. THAT’S NUTS. FOR $3.8M, who wants that kind of crazy neighbor impact.
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