- This topic has 827 replies, 38 voices, and was last updated 5 months, 3 weeks ago by
sdrealtor.
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January 26, 2021 at 5:46 PM #820483February 3, 2021 at 8:05 AM #820517
sdrealtor
ParticipantUpdate time. Not getting better here either.
New listings 21 – a little uptick in new listings but….
New Pendings of 33 – many buyers for all of them!
Thats a -12 for the week.
Closed sales at 15
Price reductions at 4.
Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $2.32M
There are currenlty 8 SFR’s for sale in 92009 and 2 in 92011. There should be 100 or more. We are selling a $2M home almost everyday. These are homes that used to take months to sell if they sold at all. Just about everything under $2M is on market less than a week. Send reinforcements!
House like mine listed about a month ago for $100K more than better similar homes have sold a couple months ago. It sat until they lowered it to prior comps that were nicer condition, more upgraded, better lot, not impaired location and views. This one needs a complete redo and has lived a hard life the last 20 years. If it closes at or near that price, the market is already 5% higher than 2 months ago. It looks like 10% bump this year is baked in already
February 10, 2021 at 8:55 AM #820547gzz
Participant92107 inventory is a rounding error from zero. Only 6 single family houses, for 1.3, 1.9, and the rest 2+ million. Only 1 condo and 3 townhouses for a total MLS inventory of 10 in an area where a strong month in a normal market has 40 sales.
Another way to look at it is that there are about 15,000 people in rental households in 92107. If only 4% of them are making plans to buy, that’s 600 potential buyers chasing……. 0 houses, 2 townhouses, and a single 1/1 condo under $900,000. And they will compete with investment buyers, out of area buyers, “buy another home and keep the old one as a rental” buyers,” parents buying for their kids, etc.
There certainly could be another covid/9-11/1929 crash scale event in 2021. Outside of that, we’re headed straight up. Lots of buyers, virtually no sellers.
February 11, 2021 at 3:14 PM #820554ParticipantUpdate time. Not getting better here getting worse. I think this is a watershed week. Not expecting change , hoping for change
New listings 22 – a little uptick in new listings but….
New Pendings of 26 – many buyers for all of them!
Thats a -4 for the week.
Closed sales at 23
Price reductions at 0.
Total houses for sale down to 44 with median of $2.125M
Got a letter from a family from LA that went to my neighborhood two days ago looking for a home. Got a call today from a realtor on my unlisted/DNC list number asking if I wanted to sell my home. Thank goodness for the stock market.
As gzz said, lots of buyers, no sellers
House just came on the market 1/2 mile away. Bought last January for $1.34M. Listed for $1.68M which is 25% above what they paid one year ago. That pretty much says it all
February 15, 2021 at 9:43 AM #820556Participant2020 volume in OB/PL went way up, even more than prices.
92106: # of SFH sales 2019 to 2020:180 to 226, +25%
$ of sales,$240m to 340m +42%.92107: 143 to 172 SFH sales, $178m to $233m $ sales volume, +20% and +31%.
February 16, 2021 at 3:28 PM #820560ParticipantUpdate time. It didnt get better. Not only is it tough to buy a house, in many cases its tough to even get an appointment to see one. Houses are getting listed with Sat/Sun 12-5pm showing windows with appointments every 15 minutes. Thats 40 slots and they get filled very quickly. Been shut out from even getting to see houses a few times already.
New listings 20 – just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too
New Pendings of 16 – not much to buy!
Thats a +4 for the week. Dont read too much into an increase.
Closed sales at 12
Price reductions at 0.
Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $1.822M. Prices arent going down, we had 8 houses go pending above $2M. Just a less inventory skewed to the top end for now
Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point
February 16, 2021 at 5:42 PM #820563XBoxBoy
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]
Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point[/quote]Well, not to nitpick… but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that’s likely mind you! Just there’s more than one way to skin a cat.)
February 17, 2021 at 9:45 AM #820564ParticipantJanet and Jerome say NO to high rates, GSE bonds Nom Nom Nom.
February 17, 2021 at 11:45 AM #820565Participant[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]
Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point[/quote]Well, not to nitpick… but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that’s likely mind you! Just there’s more than one way to skin a cat.)[/quote]
Might make it worse. Who would move if they had to give up a 2.5 % mortgage? That’s not the answer
February 23, 2021 at 2:08 PM #820644ParticipantOnly getting tougher here also.
New listings 23 – just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too
New Pendings of 31 – put it on the market and its gone!
Thats a -8 for the week.
Closed sales at 23
Price reductions at 3. Obviously shot way too high on those
Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $1.987M.
In my 3 zip area (92009/92011/92024) there are 104 pendings and 48 actives. Ten actives under 1.5M and basically nothing under $1M. Half the listings over $2M.
Talking to agents in my hood they are seeing buyers pouring in from Bay Area and LA. FSD just announced his pending return from West LA in coming year. Piles of offers and only the strongest most motivated buyers have a shot. Houses routinely in escrow $100 to 200K over asking. I think we are about 20% y-o-y in my hood maybe more with no end in sight.
Ten years ago I was laughed at here when I tried to explain the area had and was fundamentally changing into Newport Beach. That it truly was going to be “different this time”. The dumpy chart house in cardiff is gonna be a Mastro’s. The Hyatt Alila Marea is opening soon overlooking Ponto. A week there starts at $4700 all in for a hotel room not a suite. A studio suite starts around a G a night. Buckle up its on along the NCC!! Wont be long until we see Real Housewives of North County Coastal San Diego
March 2, 2021 at 8:27 PM #820731ParticipantMore of the same
New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed
New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!
Thats a -2 for the week.
Closed sales at 25
Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.
Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)
In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.
We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.
March 3, 2021 at 4:57 AM #820732Participant25% is very possible! CAR data:
“ Statewide, the median price last month was $699,890, compared to $717,930 in December — down 3%. In January 2020, the median price was $575,160, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 22%.”
March 7, 2021 at 11:18 AM #820766ncsd760
ParticipantIs anyone surprised at the number of 1 Channel Island and Coral Cove resales compared to say Maravu/Bay Laurel? (I always thought Coral Cove was *somewhat* analogous to Bay Laurel and 1 Channel was *somewhat* analogous to Maravu though I think the Bay Laurel and Maravu lots are much better). I know there are people who bought in Maravu and Bay Laurel circa 2009-2014ish who are sitting on more equity than those who bought new from Shea.
Also raised eyebrows at the Sandalwood (Shea Encinitas) recent listing flood…I think some of those prices are a little ambitious compared to 1 Channel or average-to-Restoration Hardware’d out Lynwood/Cypress Hls houses…though whoever got Hidden Ridge for $1.8ish is probably feeling good.
March 7, 2021 at 10:31 PM #820768ParticipantI think Sandalwood location and view is superior to 1 Channel and Enc Ranch by a good margin.They have the best lots and location which is worth far more than a nicer house around here. I live very close by and remember when they were built. For my eye it is the premier tract built home community in Encinitas. Over the last 20 years sales up there have always seemed to come in bunches. While 3 came on the last few months I dont view it as anything unusual. They do seem to be pushing prices a bit though up there.
1 Channel is now about 5-6 years old. Thats a timeframe where you always see some turnover. There have been 4 listings in the last 6 months. They are going for 50%+ original prices and when someone gets a big number neighbors take note. The area also had some recent drama. Rich people move to Encinitas/Leucadia and dont always look around much. Its funky in a lot of ways that just doesnt always suit the fancy pants crowd over time.
Coral Cove had 2 listings the last 6 months. Hardly a flood and it too is at the 5-6 year mark. There should be turnover. A good portion were bought as vacation homes and those that didnt use them as much as they thought or want to upgrade will be among those moving on. Nothing unusual or suprising here either
Maravu/Bay Laurel already had their their big turnover years ago. Most of the folks there now are more settled in for the long run. No surprise there is less turnover in them. BTW sandalwood new was 600ish new IIRC
And welcome to circus.
March 8, 2021 at 12:51 PM #820769profhoff
ParticipantWhat is the big drama in Channel Island? We were in escrow on a house in there last year or year before, I can’t remember. Anyway, during disclosures, the seller (also the LA) disclosed that the neighbor to the east played music on the weekends that you could hear in the backyard. So we went by one weekend and boy, was it noisy! So, we cancelled escrow and it ended up selling the next selling cycle.
Now I see the noisy house was on the market and went pending quick for an eye-popping price. The listing remarks comment on the “restaurant-quality” sound system. The backyard on the noisy house is amazing – definitely built for serious entertaining.
We also considered another house in Channel Island but the backyard had an unpermitted loggia. That came back on the market this year and went pending recently. Not super quick, but quick enough.
I noticed the Sandalwood recent listing. Looks nice.
We ended up in a nice newer smaller semi-custom development in Leucadia that so far has no drama and is surrounded by funky town, which we love.
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