North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

So the buyer of Nueces got caught up in peak March frenzy and paid cash. Then before they moved in found another closer to the beach they liked better, got caught in another April frenzy bidding war and bought that one cash also. Now they need to get rid of this surplus house. Some people

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Maybe put that Canary on hold for a bit longer before we can make a call one way or another.

New listings 23 (19) – back down to where we have been most of the last 2 months and slightly more than a year ago

New Pendings of 25 (41) – back up to where we have been most of the last 2 months and way down from a year ago

Thats -2

Closed sales at 15 –

Total houses for sale 87 (49) with median of $2.1M ($1.925M). The 49 last year was a bit of a low outlier as it was 60ish most of May/June.

The story for the week and month of May as a whole is the same. New supply is staying about the same but it is demand that has fallen off. For the first time in a while you can go look at a home or two for sale in most neighborhoods. Thats nice to see.

Pendings into mid 20’s which was a nice bounce back but still feels a little lighter than we should be. If we get back into mid 30’s that would signal market is firming up.

Seasonal pattern should be a little more inventory growth over next month or two and then dropping after end of summer into year end. Based upon what Ive been seeing, If it hit around 120 I wouldnt be surprised but 150ish and balance is shifting to buyers

[DaCounselor]

LOL re Nuences, that is classic! Let’s see what they can get for it. They’ll probably just shrug off the “loss” in any event. Maybe they’ll have to cut the Summer in Europe short and buy their daughter a RAV4 instead of a Range Rover for her Sweet 16. On second thought, no way.

Looks like something happened with this one in LCV as well:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2955-Avenida-Ciruela-92009/home/4083670

[sdrealtor]

Fell out of escrow per notes no fault of seller or house. This has become increasingly prevalent as the market down shifts a bit. Still interested to see what becomes of Serbal

[ncsd760]

I wonder if Serbal cracked 3.

[sdrealtor]

I do as well as it took longer than I thought but maybe they wanted it to sit on the market for a while and collect offers. When it was sitting I was thinking that Seller ego would not sell for less than 3 million and if they didn’t get it they would just take it off the market and stay until they could get that. Guess we’ll find out in a month or so

[ncsd760]

I will note that Serbal does have a slope with neighbors somewhat visibly above, and I think at that price point I’d want something without such a situation (or with better landscape buffering). Yeah I know the market is hot, LCV is perfect, whatever, but just saying, and I do think buyers at that range can be a bit more discerning.

I wonder how much this one goes for https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/751-Olympus-St-92024/home/6538418. I’ve always been obsessed with this development, and though we’re happily West of I-5 now and love walking to the beach/yoga/breweries, this is probably one of a few neighborhoods/homes we’d move “east of I-5” to. I always liked the architecture here, the gracious lot sizes, and appreciated that they made more than 3 single levels in the whole tract. Didn’t end up touring this one but have been in some that back to the I-5, which are a bit loud without the fountain, and others off Caudor tucked in, which are pretty silent. Wonder what noise was like.

[sdrealtor]

Really nothing there to disagree with outside of different people like different things. There are two areas where LCV shines particularly brightly. For families with the Littles there just doesn’t seem to be a neighborhood with this combination of calm streets, open space, parks, school and recreational amenities is close to the coast and all the main shopping corridor. It’s full of kids out playing all the time. Those things also pull people out of their houses in away I’ve not seen elsewhere. Go out for a walk which I do often and you’ll run into friendly neighbor After friendly neighbor. Some of us like that others don’t.

Those Maravu houses are really nice but do differ by proximity to 5. As much as i like the houses it just wouldn’t be my thing. If i left where i am it would be to walk to the beach and walk to restaurants.

[ncsd760]

It’s hard to imagine not being able to walk to the beach. We’re happy with how Leucadia is changing and modernizing though VERY notable that some of our neighbors are explicitly not. Anecdotally our two newest neighbors are from the Bay Area and Manhattan Beach, respectively.

Don’t get me wrong I love LCV (and really, really didn’t love living in LCO). Just commenting on the slope. I think ECC and OPE are truly the best elementary schools in EUSD, and feel strongly about sending children to public schools. That’s one nuance of the West of 5 culture, all the kids on our block go to different K-8 schools, which I always find funny. When we lived in OPE/Diegueno zone and in LCO, the La Costa Heights/Oak Crest zone, everyone on the block went to the public, zoned elementary/middle.

[sdrealtor]

That’s awesome. I’d love to live walk to beach again but am fine and locked in here due to massive cap gain tax and low interest rate mortgage on top of loving how this place has been reborn the last few years with young families. As long as I’ma 10 minute drive to the Belly Up my life is happy and I’ll be there again tonight.

I don’t think the slopes a big issue here. Very few views here of any real value and the slopes provide a deep buffer from neighbors. I’ve got one with lovable but loud neighbors lol

I’ve always been big on public schools. It’s kinda funny to hear some younger neighbors complaining about things thinking they are new only for me to share it was that way 15 years ago. Overall very happy with what we get in this corner of the world as it sounds you are as well

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Got a doozy this week and an example of why anyone who thinks the outcome is predetermined is kidding themselves. Not only do we put the Canary on hold but perhaps we just return it to the petshop altogether.

New listings 7 (23) – you read that right! Only 7! Thats a December holiday season number not a peak listing week number.

New Pendings of 21 (32) – solid number given levels this year indicating relative balance

Thats -14

Closed sales at 26 –

Total houses for sale 71 (57) with median of $2.145M ($2M). Thats a good size drop from last week and would not be surprised to see us negative y-o-y again in another 2 to 3 weeks

I do think the 7 new listings was a bit of an outlier and see a bunch queued up in Coming Soon status. Wouldnt be shocked to see 30+ this week. I think we will get back to more typical numbers quickly but just the same it was an eye opener. We get 2 or 3 weeks like this and we can get down to strong sellers market territory again quickly. Not saying its gonna but it could as we just saw.

Pendings are slow and steady with crazy bidding wars done but its far from a buyers market here. Looking at the market about 20% is what I would consider high end and not part of the everyday market. With tract homes now selling into the $3M’s I consider the high end here starting around $4M. Still a head scratcher for me

After this week it could be a struggle to get inventory over 100. Im thinking over 120 is unlikely this year and 150 outside the realm given recent activity. So expect things to remain in sellers favor this year

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]… this place has been reborn the last few years with young families.[/quote]

Interesting to hear you say that. Around Carmel Valley, people are talking about the fact that enrollment is dropping at the local schools because this is NOT happening. People moved to the area with their kids back in the 2000’s and not leaving now that their kids are college aged or older.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]… this place has been reborn the last few years with young families.[/quote]

Interesting to hear you say that. Around Carmel Valley, people are talking about the fact that enrollment is dropping at the local schools because this is NOT happening. People moved to the area with their kids back in the 2000’s and not leaving now that their kids are college aged or older.[/quote]

Is enrollment really dropping? If so, not sure why they are opening a new elementary school near PTMS and CCA.

[profhoff]

ncsd760 – husband and I dropped by the open house the first day. House is OK. Backyard had a weird concrete stepping stone pattern. Has the usual amenities, but is dated and needs a lot of refreshing. Backs up to the new park. We live not too far from there and walk through the park most days on our walks. Love this area as it has nice paths, is very quiet (Urania is not a through street), and the houses are gorgeous. This one went pending really fast, as you noticed. Open house was jam packed.

We are now enjoying the various ADUs getting built. The one going up on top of the new garage on the corner of Olympus and Caudor is a project.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]… this place has been reborn the last few years with young families.[/quote]

Interesting to hear you say that. Around Carmel Valley, people are talking about the fact that enrollment is dropping at the local schools because this is NOT happening. People moved to the area with their kids back in the 2000’s and not leaving now that their kids are college aged or older.[/quote]

We went through that in the bubble era and burst but this time we are getting lots of young families. Our enrollment dropped then also.

[Author]

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