North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

About the same

New listings 12 (20) – running about half of last year

New Pendings of 18 (16) – multiple over asking buyers

Thats -6

Closed sales at 8 –

Total houses for sale 24 (52) with median of $2.4M ($1.8M)

So much demand with such limited inventory. Pretty much every sfr goes 10%+ above asking.

A few anecdotes from the streets. Finally got one. House listed at 1.9 was in escrow at 2.1 and fell out. I knew where some other recent comps were gonna be which supported much higher. My client got it for 2.2 and while we were signing there were other buyers trying to jump even higher. IN amonth or two this should like a deal.

A guy I know listed his house for 2.5M. I thought it was a low and would go quite a bit a higher. Friend of friend asked me about it. I told my friend to tell his friend it will go for $3M easy. It went for $3.5M. NO matter how mispriced it was someone paid $1M over asking. Never would have happened before

The median listing price was 1.8 last year and is 2.4 now. Thats the market.

Here’s one prediction. With the market as tough as it is lots of agents arent gonna make it. Younger agents will find other work and with soaring rents willmove in with friends. Old time agents will look at their homes worth $1 to $3M cash out and call it day retiring to the desert, AZ, TX, FLA etc with the proceeds. I think the thinning of the ranks will happen over the next two years. But yours truly is prepared for whatever comes and aint going anywhere:)

[flyer]

Since we’re not planning on selling anything at this point in time, it’s always interesting to hear what’s currently going on in the streets–and it’s amazing:) One downside is, it could become a challenge for younger generations who grew up here, and others who would like to buy.

Imo, San Diego and certain other locations will continue to be in high demand for the unparalleled quality of life they offer, so if and when the frenzy ends is still up for debate. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

[sdrealtor]

More of the same with market about half of what it was last year

New listings 12 (23) – running about half of last year

New Pendings of 19 (39) – multiple over asking buyers

Thats -7

Closed sales at 11 –

Total houses for sale 25 (49) with median of $2.35M ($1.99M)

Not as much overbidding on this weeks closings but may reflect the homes (more fixers then weve seen in a while). It looks like we are starting to get more of the bread and butter 4/3 2200 to 3000 sq ft homes than weve had in a while which should cause those prices to rise with bidding wars. It seems like yesterday those were 750 to 900. Now they are 1.4 to 2M up here

It seems like the market is competitive up into the 2.5 range and slows down some between 2.5 and 4M . There doesnt seem to be true relief from competition until you get to around $4M.

Side note, my client that is buying here will be putting his place up in OC on market mid March. Will be interesting to hear how it goes. Ill update once it does but suspect market there is much like here

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]More of the same

New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.[/quote]

Tagging onto post from a year ago to show how much things have changed in a year. Last year we were in a tough inventory costrained market and now we have about half what we had then.

New listings 17 (30) – grateful my clients got a hoem a couple weeks ago hasnt been anyting close since

New Pendings of 15 (32) – nothing to buy and we should see some crazy closings soon

Thats a +2 for the week.

Closed sales at 17

Inventory at 31 (53) with median of 2.35M ($1.99M)

The house that sold for $1.24M last year would sell for $2.5M In a heartbeat if owner had the money to put about $200K into a proper remodel. He’s plodding along doing a lot of work on the yard himself and with friends but its 2.2 easy today.

Every once in a while something closes that makes me stand up and take notice. A year ago $1.24M got you a 5/3 2700 sq ft house built in 1999 needing a 200k remodel and exterior clean up on one of the premier lots (13k flat an usable canyon lot with pool) in one of the premier neighborhoods around here. Today that would be 2.5 with remodel

This is what you get today for that $1.45M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/809-Summerhill-Ct-92024/home/6390262

A 4/2.5 1986 sq ft remodelled twin home built in 1986 with a decent yard. I dont know that anything could show the change better

[sdrealtor]

One more that astounds me. Make that 4 more. When I bought my first place in Encinitas I remember looking at these places. You could pick them up for about $125K to 135k. That was 25 years ago. This is now

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/287-Rosebay-Dr-92024/home/4097619

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/725-Teaberry-St-92024/home/4122105

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/220-Coneflower-St-92024/home/4097725

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/276-Fraxinella-St-92024/home/4097664

[flyer]

Those are astounding. Same thing in areas we’ve invested in. Properties we purchased for under $200K are now off the charts. Going back even further, parents bought in some prime areas for well under $100K. Definitely has been and still is amazing to watch San Diego become such a coveted destination.

[DaCounselor]

Pacifica Serena used to be 55+, once they lifted that restriction young families started moving in. I see an increasing number of duplexes there with 2nd stories added on. Without any addition, those places are tiny, can’t believe what they are selling for but just add that neighborhood to the list of all the other neighborhoods with closed prices that make you shake your head.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=DaCounselor]Pacifica Serena used to be 55+, once they lifted that restriction young families started moving in. I see an increasing number of duplexes there with 2nd stories added on. Without any addition, those places are tiny, can’t believe what they are selling for but just add that neighborhood to the list of all the other neighborhoods with closed prices that make you shake your head.[/quote]

Affectionately known as Geritol Hill to long time locals. The age restrictions were lifted in mid 90’s and over next 20 years the old folks slowly died out. It took a while for the young folks to start moving in because even though the age restrictions were gone it still felt like a sr community for a while. The tide really shifted 10 to 15 years ago there. There are still some owned by family trusts but one by one they sell out also. There is no HOA there and they own the land so that presents added value. Ive seen 2 or 3 2 story additions but there will be more.

[sdrealtor]

Still not enough inventory but starting to feel like we are gonna get an uptick soon, maybe this week

New listings 16 (17) – so there was a drop off this week last year also. Wonder if its a coincidence or something secular?

New Pendings of 25 (34) – still inventory constrained

Thats -9

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 25 (42) with median of $2.35M ($2.33M)

Interesting that median is now pretty much the same year over year. Prices are definitely up quite a bit since then. It likely has more to do with the mix and more very high end homes selling then ever before. Last year in the first 10 weeks of the year we had 11 properties sell over $3M. This year its up to 16 so that market grew by 50%. In 2019 it was 2 houses and in 2020 it was 3. Prior to the pandemic that market barely existed here.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 18 (29) – last year we were putting up 20 to 30 a week through mid August. This year it looks like we’ll have to deal with about 30 to 40% less each week.

New Pendings of 19 (30) – inventory constrained

Thats -1

Closed sales at 22 –

Total houses for sale 31 (52) with median of $1.99M ($1.99M). A couple are down the street working through multiple offers

Inventory is down 40% since last year. Prices continue to march up with multiple offers on everything. My hovel will soon cross $2m on zillow. Never thought id ever see anything close to that. This is nuts

[sdrealtor]

New listings 19 (23) – highest count all year but still havent hit 20 yet. This time last year we had hit 30.

New Pendings of 25 (36) –

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 –

Total houses for sale 29 (49) with median of $2.3M ($1.709M). Cheapest SFR is $1.285M and its actually a detached condo not a true SFR. Inventory still off about 40% as my hovel inches every closer

Every once in a while I see something that makes me stand up and take notice. This week a friend listed a beautiful property in Leucadia for $7M and it sold the first day. That means someone was waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. We never had buyers like that before. The world continues changing here faster and faster!

[sdrealtor]

Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. Id expect a few more to go pending in the next few hours.

New listings 17 (34) – still havent hit 20 yet

New Pendings of 25 (41) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 27 (57) with median of $2.3M ($1.9M)

Here’s todays observation which relates to a conversation I had with a friend a few weeks ago and wrote about here. I asked a dear friend/client that retired here from Silly Valley a few years ago what a market looks like when prices get so high that incomes just cant support them like what happens up in the Bay Area and people buy with stock option money. His answer was the cost of everything goes up (Hello $70 haircuts) and people make do with smaller, more densely packed spaces (Condo is the life for me).

For that to happen we would need to have what I would consider a large scale SFR capitulation meaning folks who would typically buy an SFR would begin to shift en masse to attached homes and condos. My thought was thats gonna take some time thinking NCC buyers would head east to San Marcos and North toward Oside and Vista rather than spending close to or more than $1M for an attached home.

While I dont post it here weekly, I also track attached homes in 92009/92011 because I have a close family member whose interests are very dear to me.

This is what I saw this week when running the numbers. New listings were about double what they have been running. My first thought was uh-oh homeowners are starting to take the money and run and will soon blow past demand. Then I ran the pendings and they are more than triple what they have been running! While new listings are 30% above the prior high total this year, the pendings are double the prior high! These numbers scream large scale SFR Capitulation but its still early.

On top of that I saw this.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3026-Rancho-Del-Canon-92009/home/3855232

A twin home just closed for about $350K above asking. I dont think that was someone that came looking for a twin home but rather an SFR buyer that capitulated. And for it to get that high there has to be more than 2 or 3 capitulators. Its still early to call it a trend but this bears watching and following. The numbers to watch will be # of new attached listings to see if people are taking the money to run vis a vis # of attached pendings to see if SFR buyers are capitulating. I’ll keep y’all posted

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. Id expect a few more to go pending in the next few hours.

New listings 17 (34) – still havent hit 20 yet

New Pendings of 25 (41) –

Thats -8

Closed sales at 21 –

Total houses for sale 27 (57) with median of $2.3M ($1.9M)

Here’s todays observation which relates to a conversation I had with a friend a few weeks ago and wrote about here. I asked a dear friend/client that retired here from Silly Valley a few years ago what a market looks like when prices get so high that incomes just cant support them like what happens up in the Bay Area and people buy with stock option money. His answer was the cost of everything goes up (Hello $70 haircuts) and people make do with smaller, more densely packed spaces (Condo is the life for me).

For that to happen we would need to have what I would consider a large scale SFR capitulation meaning folks who would typically buy an SFR would begin to shift en masse to attached homes and condos. My thought was thats gonna take some time thinking NCC buyers would head east to San Marcos and North toward Oside and Vista rather than spending close to or more than $1M for an attached home.

While I dont post it here weekly, I also track attached homes in 92009/92011 because I have a close family member whose interests are very dear to me.

This is what I saw this week when running the numbers. New listings were about double what they have been running. My first thought was uh-oh homeowners are starting to take the money and run and will soon blow past demand. Then I ran the pendings and they are more than triple what they have been running! While new listings are 30% above the prior high total this year, the pendings are double the prior high! These numbers scream large scale SFR Capitulation but its still early.

On top of that I saw this.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3026-Rancho-Del-Canon-92009/home/3855232

A twin home just closed for about $350K above asking. I dont think that was someone that came looking for a twin home but rather an SFR buyer that capitulated. And for it to get that high there has to be more than 2 or 3 capitulators. Its still early to call it a trend but this bears watching and following. The numbers to watch will be # of new attached listings to see if people are taking the money to run vis a vis # of attached pendings to see if SFR buyers are capitulating. I’ll keep y’all posted[/quote]

GOOAL!!!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]New listings 19 (23) – highest count all year but still havent hit 20 yet. This time last year we had hit 30.

New Pendings of 25 (36) –

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 –

Total houses for sale 29 (49) with median of $2.3M ($1.709M). Cheapest SFR is $1.285M and its actually a detached condo not a true SFR. Inventory still off about 40% as my hovel inches every closer

Every once in a while I see something that makes me stand up and take notice. This week a friend listed a beautiful property in Leucadia for $7M and it sold the first day. That means someone was waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. We never had buyers like that before. The world continues changing here faster and faster![/quote]

A little update on this last one. Apparently there was not a buyer waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. There were several! There was a bidding war and its in escrow way over asking price and listing agent is still getting calls about it.

Of note all the buyers/potential buyers were local to SD and winner is from Encinitas. Among the bidders were a LJ local that is downsizing from a much more expensive home they recently sold and a retired pro athlete. The laters agent shared that they have a whole bunch of retired/soon to be retired athletes looking to retire here also. This of course makes perfect sense as we have a beautiful place with great climate, great schools and they can can live in relative anonymity here with their families relative to staying where they played their careers. Most of these guys retire with $5 to 50M after relatively short careers. They will never make close to that money again and need to make it last nicely for the rest of their lives. This place is a great landing spot.

Im not saying there will be enough of guys/gals like this to carry the whole market but it is one more example of a growing category of resident that exists few places and will continue to support what is happening here.

[limkotir]

A lot of money and demand chasing too few goods. Going through the car buying process myself right now – different product but same story, but unlike cars and many consumer goods, you can just pump up the supply side of the equation to counter balance the demand.

$7M is quite out of reach for 99% of the public, but I wonder what is that sweet spot price that balances size, condition and the general area of the home to what you’re paying, if you guys know what I’m asking here — feels like $2.5M to $3M for these NCC homes tracked in this thread?

[Author]

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