North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

Nice work. Comps have been rising that fast and if you bought based upon current comps last month they were based upon sales prices negotiated 30 to 60 days prior to that. The joy one can find buying in a rising market. Nice work!

[The-Shoveler]

So far I have never regretted buying a house.

But I have regretted selling a house.

Note: I would not buy a house I did not intend to hold at least 10 years.

[profhoff]

Wow – $200k over list in Hanover Beach Colony in C’bad! Not a lot of square footage for a 5 bedroom house, so shows you the power of lots of bedrooms, updated kitchen and baths, and a relatively private and reasonably sized coastal backyard patio space:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7054-Leeward-St-92011/home/6503886?utm_channel=img&utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1017001

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Last weeks numbers I lost were on trend but starting to see a seasonal trend finally appear. Peak market here is always Feb through May but sellers think its in June. We typically get a surge in new listings once school lets out and the buyer pool has already thinned as people start vacationing and shifting to summer fun.

New listings 30 – here come the late listers

New Pendings of 25 – a little less demand as buyer attention starts shifting elsewhere so no surprise

Thats a +5 for the week. First time weve seen more new listings then pendings since mid Feb.

Closed sales at 24 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 69 with median of $1.795M.

Something to watch next several weeks. More sellers come out after school is out and buyer demand tends to drop this time of year due to the season. Inventory has and will build a little. There will be more entry to mid range homes available than we have had in a while. Will that get buyers to come back into the game? I’ll be watching

As an aside I checked last 10 sales in my hood. Average down payment is 57%.

[sdrealtor]

First $2M sale closed in my hood and another should be right behind it. Thats something I never predicted. When I bought my house 22 years ago, I figured when my youngest graduated high school it would be nice if it got close to $1M and here we are far beyond that. Just bonkers

[sdrealtor]

Update time. market is hitting seasonal slowdown. Its a little better for buyer but not really. Instead of battling with 10 to 20 strong buyers you now battle with 3 to 5 strong buyers on the good ones. Peak frenzy is past and sellers who push too hard are more likely to sit. For now I expect prices to hold but the big gains are past for the rest of the year IMO.

New listings 24 – the big surge was last week right after school let out. Should return back to average listing counts

New Pendings of 34 – less competition but still plenty of demand for well priced nice homes

Thats a -10 for the week. Back to negative numbers.

Closed sales at 31 – The eye popping closings will continue rolling in for another few weeks but peak appreciation should be in the past for this year. Prices should roughly hold but in a couple months everyone will normalize to them it will no longer be such a novelty

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 68 with median of $1.973M

Inventory level pretty flat but should start building slowly the next 2 or 3 months. Im hoping for a less frenetic but orderly market the next few months up here.

We now have two sales in the hood of $2M or more. I never would have predicted that. Those homeowners will be paying as much in taxes each year as I pay for principal, interest, taxes and insurance. Easily the best thing ive done in my life was buying a house here and holding on for the ride.

DVR alert! Tonight on Househunters on HGTV at 7 pm the episode will be based upon house a bought here in the hood. It was purchased in early January and is now looking like a great deal. Easily worth another $300 to 400K and maybe more.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. See last weeks narrative. thats what is happening.

New listings 22 – back to average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 23 – peak frenzy and bidding wars seem to be past. Seeing some homes last more than a week that wouldnt have a month ago

Thats a -1 for the week. Getting back into balance.

Closed sales at 27 –

Price reductions at 6. Starting to see overpriced listings reduce. Some overshot their expectations and could pay for it by getting less with market settling down.

Total houses for sale 74 with median of $1.887M

Inventory building slowly as expected. Market seems to be getting more orderly. Still plenty of buyers but as inventory builds buyers get less motivated hoping for much lower prices. Advice to buyers, be picky for long term homes, could get easier and better in Fall but get something locked up by end of Novemeber. Next Spring could be crazy again

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 25 – average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 25 – back into balance

Thats a flat for the week. Getting back into balance.

Closed sales at 30 –

Price reductions at 11. Greedy folks pushing the market got cut off at the knees

Total houses for sale 77 with median of $1.95M

Virtually every home sells above asking. Its as if the list price is a reserve price now. Just saw a house listed at $7.9M close. It went for $8M. Thats over asking. Multiple buyers across all price ranges for the good ones.

The fun continues

Footnote. As home sales are recorded and buyer names public record I contniue researching where they are moving from. The big dollar sales continue to come mostly from elsewhere especially up north

[Pbranding]

Hello sdr. Thank you for this weekly info. Curious about your comment last week that Spring could be crazy again. Why do you think so? Hasn’t frenzy peaked already?

[sdrealtor]

Short answer. Because it always does. Longer answer. People love to buy real estate. Around here real estate goes up very quickly but comes down very slowly. It typically takes a year or two of a prolonged downturn to have any real impact on real estate prices. There are still multiple buyers for any home, no large scale construction and more buyers entering the market all the time. I don’t think we’ll see the kind of increases we saw the last year happening but it will still be a strong competitive market next Spring. Any real change will take much longer to come

[sdrealtor]

Update time.

New listings 29 – average listing counts as expected

New Pendings of 31 – back into balance

Thats -2. Market seems more in balance.

Closed sales at 35 –

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale 80 with median of $1.99M. Market continues to move towards more balance. Closings still consistently coming in above asking and often well above asking but these were put togther a month or more ago. Will be interesting to see what happens with closings in next several weeks

Cheapest detached home is 1400 sq ft 2 story detached condo for $1.115M

[ncsd760]

Does anyone know anything about the house on Verbena in Encinitas Ranch? Came on market pending immediately at what seems like a 2019 price?

Granted one on our street in Leucadia just came on a few weeks ago for very low and went pending quick, but that one had photos where you can tell it was in severe disrepair and needs structural and cosmetic upgrades. So maybe this is a similar scenario….

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/546-Verbena-Ct-92024/home/6539015

[sdrealtor]

Was sold off market. No info provided.

Here’s a head turner though. Last sold in 1995 for $133K. They did a great remodel but with these places that cant be much more than $100K if that.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/251-Rosebay-Dr-92024/home/4096227

[gzz]

That the nicest 2-1 detached I’ve seen in a long time, and we have a ton of them around here. They did everything exactly right IMO, everything is classy and understated. Carrara marble is my favorite stone and looks great in the kitchen.

It helps there’s a big flat lot, which is not common here paired with a 2-1, everything over 5k lot is either a 3/2 or bigger or multiple units or very sloped.

[sdrealtor]

It’s attached

[Author]

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