North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

House in Sandalwood in escrow above $3M. Granted I think that is the nicest tract neighborhood in Encinitas east of the 5 but still. Looks like $2M fairly standard tract homes are just rounding the corner in NCC. Should be the norm this time next year unless we get much higher rates

[sdrealtor]

Last week I saw a slight cool down. This week the polar opposite. What happened in Mira Mesa did not happen here. The opposite happened.

New listings 19 – thats a very small number

New Pendings of 41 – plenty of demand to feed off the higher inventory last week

Thats a -22 for the week.

Closed sales at 34 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $1.925M. It was 73 this time last week

Last week may have been an anomaly. Inventory dropped way down this week. This is when it should be building. I see a house close for $3M plus almost everyday. Just 3 years ago it was nearly impossible to sell one for over $2M.

Here is some more data in these 3 zips (92009, 92011, 92024).

May 2020
61 SFR’s closed
median price of $1.25M

May 2021 to date
91 SFR’s have already closed
median of $1.64M

The last week is the busiest of the month. There are 31 houses still in escrow that went under contract prior to May 1st. A bunch of these should close this week. We could end up with almost twice as many closed sales this May as last year. Of course some of that was due to COVID lock down in 2020 but notable that prices were not really impacted by the shut down. I sold two houses that closed last May. Both closed for record prices.

The median for May is already up 31% here.

For comparison I looked at MM also.

May 2020
22 closed SFR’s
Median of $683K

May 2021
29 closed SFR’s thus far with 8 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median 810K

Should end up with sales up about 50% higher volume and prices up around 19% y-o-y.

Shows how hyper local RE can be

[sdrealtor]

I’ll add Carmel Valley also

May 2020
29 closed SFR’s
Median of $1.51M

May 2021
35 closed SFR’s thus far with 22 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median of $1.81M

Carmel Valley is clearly a higher priced market and always has been. There are still a whole bunch that could close this week and pull that median up but as it stands it is looking like 20% y-o-y.

The price action up here is substantially faster this year. Id guess it is because location close to work is less important now. But more importantly our housing stock up here is newer with bigger homes and bigger lots that appeal more to refugees from the North. Just a guess but id bet a nice dinner on that if there was some way to prove it.

Every week that passes it seems like there is more of a fundamental shift going on up here. Im not gonna post all the numbers but 92127 (Del Sur/4S) is seeing almost as strong appreciation (27%) as NCC. There too the housing stock is newer with bigger homes though lot sizes are more similar to CV.

I have no idea where this going to end

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’ll add Carmel Valley also

May 2020
29 closed SFR’s
Median of $1.51M

May 2021
35 closed SFR’s thus far with 22 under contract prior to May 1st which could close this week
Median of $1.81M

Carmel Valley is clearly a higher priced market and always has been. There are still a whole bunch that could close this week and pull that median up but as it stands it is looking like 20% y-o-y.

The price action up here is substantially faster this year. Id guess it is because location close to work is less important now. But more importantly our housing stock up here is newer with bigger homes and bigger lots that appeal more to refugees from the North. Just a guess but id bet a nice dinner on that if there was some way to prove it.

Every week that passes it seems like there is more of a fundamental shift going on up here. Im not gonna post all the numbers but 92127 (Del Sur/4S) is seeing almost as strong appreciation (27%) as NCC. There too the housing stock is newer with bigger homes though lot sizes are more similar to CV.

I have no idea where this going to end[/quote]

Can’t believe houses on my old street sold for 1.8 and 1.9m respectively. That’s more than 2x from my purchase that was close to peek before the Great Recession.

My neighbor who bought the house as a short sales scored big time shortly after the Great Recession from my then ahole neighbor that leveraged up the ying yang scored bigtime with a $880k purchase price. I’m happy for her. Very nice lady who owns her own biotech company.

I wish the insanity would stop. I’d rather have the ability to purchase more rentals than to see my equity go up, though I’m not complaining about it.

So is the lesson to learn. Hold real estate for the long term and there’s lesson of a chance to get burned??? And if you leveraged up the ying yang, can’t make payments…well then that’s on you….???

Kinda funny and sad at the same time that for as expensive as I thought it was back then to buy my SFH, it’s still less (at least in nominal terms)than how much one of my friends just sold their 3/3 townhome in Crest Del Mar 92130 for more, lol.

[sdrealtor]

I wish it would stop also and expect it to cool down/level off one rates rise more. Prices could fall a bit but not dramatically because long term owners are protected by low rate fixed mortgages. They’ll just sit and wait for better times as a whole. Of course some always need to sell and things could pull back 10-15% next downturn but who knows when that is coming.

The answer is to hold RE here long term and let the passage of time do the heavy lifting to create generational wealth. I know an older Mexican woman up here. Her long deceased husband felt that way and bought as much as he could. She owns prime real estate through out Encinitas including a restaurant locals think is a drug front because it’s rarely open. It’s free and clear with minimal taxes on it.

Imagine how smart people that bought small houses 40- 50 years ago in Cupertino look;)

[flyer]

Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]I wish it would stop also and expect it to cool down/level off one rates rise more. Prices could fall a bit but not dramatically because long term owners are protected by low rate fixed mortgages. They’ll just sit and wait for better times as a whole. Of course some always need to sell and things could pull back 10-15% next downturn but who knows when that is coming.

The answer is to hold RE here long term and let the passage of time do the heavy lifting to create generational wealth. I know an older Mexican woman up here. Her long deceased husband felt that way and bought as much as he could. She owns prime real estate through out Encinitas including a restaurant locals think is a drug front because it’s rarely open. It’s free and clear with minimal taxes on it.

Imagine how smart people that bought small houses 40- 50 years ago in Cupertino look;)[/quote]

Is that the person you were saying on Nextdoor that the North County Karens were all suspicious about?

Maybe questionable financing is coming back too. I just got off the phone with a really weird situation. Friend of a friend wanted someone to help cosign a loan to buy a house. I was like does he even know what cosigning means. How could he ask anyone who he barely knows if they could “simply cosign a loan” totally clueless.

Well apparently person wants to buy a $680k condo, got a loan from a credit union that requires only 5% down, and supposedly at 3% but requires someone to cosign…Weird. I mean no way in hell I would do it, but it made me wonder, are banks repeating the same mistakes again. This person there is no way they should be buying a home. Can’t even balance a checkbook. I think the loan terms are suspicious. I don’t think that’s accurate, definitely not for something with 5% down and fixed rate… anyway…

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.[/quote]

we don’t give a shit. we enjoy talking about real estate that built on our own efforts, not our parents.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=flyer]Totally agree buying and holding over time is a great strategy. Cycles will always come and go, but this one is particularly interesting. Schiller, in his latest prognostications, seems to think there will be some pain involved if/when there is a correction.

That said, guess we’re losing another San Diegan to less taxing climes. Heard Mickelson is moving to Jupiter when his youngest graduates from high school. Our golfing families have crossed paths for many years, and it’s been great to watch his career–especially that win last Sunday.[/quote]

we don’t give a shit. we enjoy talking about real estate that built on our own efforts, not our parents.[/quote]

But what will our kids talk about? LOL

And those 5% down loans are real at 3%. Many of them offer low down with low fixed rate for 5 years that adjusts once every 5 years. I think the cap is 0.5% every 5 years so would still be 3.5ish% years 6-10 if they are still there. It has been a good entry for many first time buyers with very low rates that are guaranteed to stay that way for 10 years if not longer.

A family member used one of those loans 3 years ago albeit with 20% down. I think it was around 3.375% at the time which was much lower than the 30 year. At the time she thought she would only be there through her daughters high school graduation this year. I recently helped her through a refinance into a 2.625% 30 year fixed. She’s solid for life now

Oh and to tie into flyers humble brag. That daughter used to go to dance class with Phil’s youngest. I met him him several times. Nice guy and I undestand the move to Jupiter. Many of my friends and their parents live there. The golf is much better there

[scaredyclassic]

my kid saw phil mickelson at an IN N Out in temecula. he was very recognized and signing autographs. I guess phil likes in n out. apparently money buys better real estate but not better burgers

[sdrealtor]

He flies his private jet in and out of Palomar Airport. He’s a pilot. Ran into him a few years ago late night on a Sunday after a tournament elsewhere. He was looking for a late night burrito. Money cant buy a burrito at an already closed divey mexican joint either

And the plan has been in the works a long time. Many of the top golfers live there including Tiger, Jack, Brooks, Ricky and more

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20200117/phil-mickelson-will-become-tiger-woodsrsquo-neighbor-on-jupiter-island

[Coronita]

Ok, I’m embarrassed to ask.. Who the heck is Phil Mickelson?

Sorry, I don’t really follow american famous people unless they are in tech… Not to sound culturally insensitive don’t give a shit nor have any desires to really know or meet them. I’m only asking so I can pretend not to be totally clueless when it comes to american socialites, but really don’t give a shit…

Now, if I could meet Dr. Lisa Su, that would make my day. But that’s a separate story. Beyond that, I don’t know. Maybe it would be interesting to meet a few asian porn stars too on the opposite end of the extreme. Not that there’s any motivation for that, it’s just I don’t know anyone personally in the adult film industry and it would make very interesting conversation I guess.

[flyer]

Agree Jupiter has great golf courses. There are many around the world, and we’re trying to play as many as possible as one of our hobbies. See Phil playing our home course often, so, even with the move to Jupiter, I’m sure they will keep a place here. Can’t imagine giving up life in our ‘hood’ entirely. He’s been a pilot for years, guess he took after his Dad who was a Navy pilot, Top Gun instructor, then a commercial pilot.

Also agree success in real estate and many other things are far more interesting than golf, but variety is the spice of life, so, imo, the more interests, the merrier.

[Coronita]

And still nobody knows any asian porn stars personally? Come on all the wealth and money people here have, and people still dont know anyone in this famous category???? How boring and disappointing. I would think anyone who is anyone would have a plug into this hot industry.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]Ok, I’m embarrassed to ask.. Who the heck is Phil Mickelson?

Sorry, I don’t really follow american famous people unless they are in tech… Not to sound culturally insensitive don’t give a shit nor have any desires to really know or meet them. I’m only asking so I can pretend not to be totally clueless when it comes to american socialites, but really don’t give a shit…

Now, if I could meet Dr. Lisa Su, that would make my day. But that’s a separate story. Beyond that, I don’t know. Maybe it would be interesting to meet a few asian porn stars too on the opposite end of the extreme. Not that there’s any motivation for that, it’s just I don’t know anyone personally in the adult film industry and it would make very interesting conversation I guess.[/quote]

I had no idea who he was till my kid mentioned him. Prof. Golf strikes me as very very silly.

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