North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[Reality]

[quote=sdrealtor]He is a part owner of a small business that provides support to some of the core industries that operate in the SD start-up market. Obviously he is not an idiot, far from it. He’s about 40, doesnt speak clearly, never makes eye contact, very nervous and look like the guy down the street. The point was if you met him you would not have any idea of his income. There are 2 more of him at his company and that is what they take out of the corporation each year not what it makes. He lives in a house he paid about 500K for during the bubble. Certainly not another option arm wannabe who bouight something they never could afford.
[/quote]

A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.

[an]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.[/quote]
You don’t know where he live, so how can you make the assumption that he lost hundreds of thousands. Buying in the bubble years doesn’t mean buying at peak either. Do you consider all the people who bought stocks in 2008, 1999-2000 not the sharpest knives in the drawer too? How about people who didn’t buy stocks in March 2009?

[an]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.[/quote]
You don’t know where he live, so how can you make the assumption that he lost hundreds of thousands. Buying in the bubble years doesn’t mean buying at peak either. Do you consider all the people who bought stocks in 2008, 1999-2000 not the sharpest knives in the drawer too? How about people who didn’t buy stocks in March 2009?

[an]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.[/quote]
You don’t know where he live, so how can you make the assumption that he lost hundreds of thousands. Buying in the bubble years doesn’t mean buying at peak either. Do you consider all the people who bought stocks in 2008, 1999-2000 not the sharpest knives in the drawer too? How about people who didn’t buy stocks in March 2009?

[an]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.[/quote]
You don’t know where he live, so how can you make the assumption that he lost hundreds of thousands. Buying in the bubble years doesn’t mean buying at peak either. Do you consider all the people who bought stocks in 2008, 1999-2000 not the sharpest knives in the drawer too? How about people who didn’t buy stocks in March 2009?

[an]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
A lot of houses going for 500k during the bubble are down about 50% now. Maybe he isn’t an idiot, but he’s certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer to fritter away hundreds of thousands just because he could afford to.[/quote]
You don’t know where he live, so how can you make the assumption that he lost hundreds of thousands. Buying in the bubble years doesn’t mean buying at peak either. Do you consider all the people who bought stocks in 2008, 1999-2000 not the sharpest knives in the drawer too? How about people who didn’t buy stocks in March 2009?

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.[/quote]

Yes, it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that we’ll see significant deflation (they will definitely try for inflation, but still could lose in a stagflationary/deflationary spiral). I honestly don’t know, and have played both sides of that bet WRT investments (been out of the inflation hedges since Oct/Nov, though, and prepared for a bout of deflation for a bit).

Wish we had a crystal ball, as that certainly would solve a lot of problems. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.[/quote]

Yes, it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that we’ll see significant deflation (they will definitely try for inflation, but still could lose in a stagflationary/deflationary spiral). I honestly don’t know, and have played both sides of that bet WRT investments (been out of the inflation hedges since Oct/Nov, though, and prepared for a bout of deflation for a bit).

Wish we had a crystal ball, as that certainly would solve a lot of problems. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.[/quote]

Yes, it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that we’ll see significant deflation (they will definitely try for inflation, but still could lose in a stagflationary/deflationary spiral). I honestly don’t know, and have played both sides of that bet WRT investments (been out of the inflation hedges since Oct/Nov, though, and prepared for a bout of deflation for a bit).

Wish we had a crystal ball, as that certainly would solve a lot of problems. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.[/quote]

Yes, it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that we’ll see significant deflation (they will definitely try for inflation, but still could lose in a stagflationary/deflationary spiral). I honestly don’t know, and have played both sides of that bet WRT investments (been out of the inflation hedges since Oct/Nov, though, and prepared for a bout of deflation for a bit).

Wish we had a crystal ball, as that certainly would solve a lot of problems. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.[/quote]

Yes, it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that we’ll see significant deflation (they will definitely try for inflation, but still could lose in a stagflationary/deflationary spiral). I honestly don’t know, and have played both sides of that bet WRT investments (been out of the inflation hedges since Oct/Nov, though, and prepared for a bout of deflation for a bit).

Wish we had a crystal ball, as that certainly would solve a lot of problems. 😉

[sdrealtor]

Crystal balls are a pain to keep clean. Just like stainless steel appliances they show too many fingerprints.

[sdrealtor]

Crystal balls are a pain to keep clean. Just like stainless steel appliances they show too many fingerprints.

[sdrealtor]

Crystal balls are a pain to keep clean. Just like stainless steel appliances they show too many fingerprints.

[sdrealtor]

Crystal balls are a pain to keep clean. Just like stainless steel appliances they show too many fingerprints.

[Author]

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