New-home sales plunge 33% to record low in May

[outtamojo]

[quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[SK in CV]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

I’m confused by what you’re saying. How can lower household formation increase demand? I think you’re right on the household formation, at least for the next 10 years. There is certainly conflicting data, but I suspect household formation will be almost flat for as much as the next 20 years as boomers downsize and die. If we already have an over supply of housing, then demand will not rise. Neither will prices. Possibly unaffected by other economic growth.

[Arraya]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

Nonsense, because you don’t the slightest idea what I am talking about whereas I completely understand what you are talking about.

Economics is not a science. It’s a group of philosophers all trying to prove solipsism in a large circle jerk

[Arraya]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

Nonsense, because you don’t the slightest idea what I am talking about whereas I completely understand what you are talking about.

Economics is not a science. It’s a group of philosophers all trying to prove solipsism in a large circle jerk

[Arraya]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

Nonsense, because you don’t the slightest idea what I am talking about whereas I completely understand what you are talking about.

Economics is not a science. It’s a group of philosophers all trying to prove solipsism in a large circle jerk

[Arraya]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

Nonsense, because you don’t the slightest idea what I am talking about whereas I completely understand what you are talking about.

Economics is not a science. It’s a group of philosophers all trying to prove solipsism in a large circle jerk

[Arraya]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=Arraya][quote=outtamojo]” Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

This is making a huge assumption that we will be going back to historic economic growth patterns when all evidence points the contrary and in fact is probably impossible.[/quote]

In a nutshell, your assumptions are just as huge as mine and require just as much faith.[/quote]

Nonsense, because you don’t the slightest idea what I am talking about whereas I completely understand what you are talking about.

Economics is not a science. It’s a group of philosophers all trying to prove solipsism in a large circle jerk

[DWCAP]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?[/quote]

What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

What he doesnt give is a time line. Who cares if housing is set to be bullish ten years from now, which companies survive that bearish decade is really hard to know from an investment standpoint, and even the dumbest home builders can get their act together in a decade.

But in general I agree with him, at somepoint in the future housing will boom again.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?[/quote]

What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

What he doesnt give is a time line. Who cares if housing is set to be bullish ten years from now, which companies survive that bearish decade is really hard to know from an investment standpoint, and even the dumbest home builders can get their act together in a decade.

But in general I agree with him, at somepoint in the future housing will boom again.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?[/quote]

What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

What he doesnt give is a time line. Who cares if housing is set to be bullish ten years from now, which companies survive that bearish decade is really hard to know from an investment standpoint, and even the dumbest home builders can get their act together in a decade.

But in general I agree with him, at somepoint in the future housing will boom again.

[DWCAP]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=outtamojo]
Imo it doesn’t matter what builders believe. Lack of building and less than trend household formation are bullish for prices in the far out future.[/quote]

I think you mean bearish, no?[/quote]

What he means is that with more American households in the future, more new houses will be needed for them to live in. Therefore, long term, new housing is bullish.

What he doesnt give is a time line. Who cares if housing is set to be bullish ten years from now, which companies survive that bearish decade is really hard to know from an investment standpoint, and even the dumbest home builders can get their act together in a decade.

But in general I agree with him, at somepoint in the future housing will boom again.

[Author]

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