Nasdaq crossed 5000 today

[The-Shoveler]

They cannot control everything True, but they know and can do a lot more than most on this board seem to think.

The 2003-8 housing bubble was created as a diversion to the Iraq War by the way.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]They cannot control everything True, but they can do a lot more than most on this board seem to think.[/quote]

Yes, the Fed under Greenspan made many mistakes that led to the 2008 crash. But the Fed under Bernanke, did a great job to get us out of recession, notwithstanding Congressional inaction.

You’re right, yes we can where other countries cannot. America has many natural economics advantages going for us.

[fun4vnay2]

Of course, the bubble won’t bust this time as this time is different 🙂

[FlyerInHi]

Actually, there are cycles all the time, especially in the stock market.

But prior to 2008, we never had a nationwide housing crash that was so traumatic on Main Street(other than the Great Depression, and depressions before, of course).

Prior to 2008, housing recessions were regional. That’s why the economic models got it so wrong.

[Anonymous]

[quote=The-Shoveler]

The 2003-8 housing bubble was created as a diversion to the Iraq War by the way.[/quote]

Seriously you have no clue what you are talking about. Your comment about “millenials coming of age” somehow assuring stock market won’t crash was a pretty ignorant statement, but this comment is baseless and ridiculous.

Anyway, U.S. has been a boom/bust economy throughout history. The propensity for bubbles increased after we went away from Gold standard. Inevitably bubbles pop, it is simple mathematics. Rinse, repeat. It’s going to happen again, has nothing to do with demographics.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=deadzone]

Anyway, U.S. has been a boom/bust economy throughout history. The propensity for bubbles increased after we went away from Gold standard. Inevitably bubbles pop, it is simple mathematics. Rinse, repeat. It’s going to happen again, has nothing to do with demographics.[/quote]

But notwithstanding all the buts, the trajectory is up, which is all that matters . And even then, busts oftentimes just means correction/recession, not the undoing of all the previous booms. The window of opportunities to buy is a few years during busts.

[Anonymous]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=deadzone]

Anyway, U.S. has been a boom/bust economy throughout history. The propensity for bubbles increased after we went away from Gold standard. Inevitably bubbles pop, it is simple mathematics. Rinse, repeat. It’s going to happen again, has nothing to do with demographics.[/quote]

But notwithstanding all the buts, the trajectory is up, which is all that matters . And even then, busts oftentimes just means correction/recession, not the undoing of all the previous booms. The window of opportunities to buy is a few years during busts.[/quote]

Well NASDAQ just yesterday recovered its level from 15 years ago. So the opportunity to “buy low” from this last bust appears to be over.

[CA renter]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]They cannot control everything True, but they can do a lot more than most on this board seem to think.[/quote]

Yes, the Fed under Greenspan made many mistakes that led to the 2008 crash. But the Fed under Bernanke, did a great job to get us out of recession, notwithstanding Congressional inaction.

You’re right, yes we can where other countries cannot. America has many natural economics advantages going for us.[/quote]

They weren’t “mistakes,” Brian. I’ve seen internal Fed papers that were discussing the bubble years before it actually burst. The govt knew exactly what was going to happen. Look at how they loosened GSE/FHA standards about two years before the crash. During the bubble, the private mortgage market grew while the GSE’s market share shrank. They were trying to shift as many mortgages as possible from the private market to the govt before the crash so that they could “save homeowners” (banks/lenders) when the crash came by publicly guaranteeing the mortgages and instituting various foreclosure moratoriums. They were looking to socialize the costs while they privatized the profits, as usual.

Additionally, Bush brought Bernanke on as an economic adviser in ~2005, IIRC, years before the crash. It was not a coincidence that he was considered an expert on the Great Depression. IMO, he was asked to chair the Council of Economic Advisors so that he could help advise them about the best way to handle the upcoming crash and resulting recession/depression. This is also why he was chosen to head the Federal Reserve.

They absolutely knew what was going to happen. If they didn’t then they should all lose their jobs, and those of us who did know should be the ones making all the rules and earning all that cash! 🙂

[scaredyclassic]

Apocalyptic talk is at an all time low on pigging ton a fairly sure indicator were nearing a market top.

[The-Shoveler]

Whatever happens the Fed’s foot is not far from the gas pedal right now.
Inflation low they will error to the side of pushing further on the gas.

Someday they will put the foot over the brake pedal, but I don’t see it soon.

[fun4vnay2]

You are right, The bust happens when people least expect it

[moneymaker]

What would happen if China nationalized all the manufacturing over there? Kinda like Mexico did to the oil fields in the 70’s. Being communistic I wouldn’t rule it out.Or maybe they already own them, I’m not sure but seems to me they could stop exporting to the US and still survive by exporting to the rest of the world,might be a good thing for us actually because then we could start making stuff here.

[Coronita]

[quote=moneymaker]What would happen if China nationalized all the manufacturing over there? Kinda like Mexico did to the oil fields in the 70’s. Being communistic I wouldn’t rule it out.Or maybe they already own them, I’m not sure but seems to me they could stop exporting to the US and still survive by exporting to the rest of the world,might be a good thing for us actually because then we could start making stuff here.[/quote]

Nationalizing manufacturing isn’t going to happen because China isn’t stupid.

That said, what they could do is they could use their governmen bodies to drive out foreign companies and foreign competition in their own home markets or at least make their domestic companies have an upper hand…Sort of what they did with anti-trust lawsuits against Qualcomm, Microsoft, and other tech companies there.

[spdrun]

Whatever happens the Fed’s foot is not far from the gas pedal right now.
Inflation low they will error to the side of pushing further on the gas.

Interest rates are already low. There are plenty of buyers for debt (bonds). The Fed can start more QE, but after 3.5 rounds of QE, will it have the desired psychological effect the 4.5th time? It would be interesting if the Fed started QE4 and the markets unraveled anyway.

[The-Shoveler]

I would not be surprised to see them mail checks again even.

Anyway there is a lot more things they have not done yet but I really don’t think it will be necessary.

As long as companies don’t start to go BK, and laying off in mass I don’t see a BIG crash coming, (5%-10%) could happen because it’s Wednesday however.

As long as the fed does not do something Stupid.

Besides what Mark C. says it is really nothing like the 2000 internet bubble.

[Author]

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