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June 18, 2011 at 8:58 PM #704628June 18, 2011 at 8:58 PM #705467ArrayaParticipant
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune11/turning-point6-11.html
The stock market and economy are both at a turning point. Analyst Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model ™ set the turn date as June 13/14, 2011.In the stock market, a number of technical analysts are issuing strong buys based on the negative sentiment of so-called “dumb money”–small investors–and the number of stocks below their 50-day moving averages.
Others such as Armstrong are predicting that Greece has no alternative to default and the Euro is untenable as “one size does not fit all.”
It is rare to find a market where the technical evidence is so compelling for a strong rally yet the fundamental basis for such a rally so lacking. Exactly where do Bulls think the growth and rising profits are going to come from?
The answer for the past few years has been massive Federal Reserve/Federal intervention and stimulus, and a weakening U.S. dollar that boosted overseas profits via the legerdemaine of currency devaluation.
But three years of these policies have accomplished nothing but load the taxpayer with staggering amounts of debt: none of the causes of the 2008 implosion have been fixed or even addressed. As Armstrong notes, the massive interventions did not shorten the crisis, they have prolonged it.
This reality has filtered down to the political swamp, and now the politicos are hesitant to bet their own futures on additional trillions in stimulus and quantitative easing. For the first time in memory, the Federal Reserve is on the defensive. Simply put, its policies have failed to accomplish anything except prop up a rotten, insolvent banking sector that needs to be declared bankrupt and swept into the dustbin of histor
June 18, 2011 at 11:39 PM #704739paramountParticipantHere’s my prediction over the summer:
1. Greece will have a bailout package within a week.
2. The stock market will have a choppy June and into July.
3. Some sort of QE3 or QE2.5 will be announced some time in July. It may have a very different name.
4. By August the debt limit will be raised.
5. The stock market will rally on these 2 items (more stimulus and the increased debt limit)
6. Things will look good going into the fall – the Christmas shopping season will begin.
No real problems at all. Obama re-elected Fall 2012.
June 18, 2011 at 11:39 PM #705849paramountParticipantHere’s my prediction over the summer:
1. Greece will have a bailout package within a week.
2. The stock market will have a choppy June and into July.
3. Some sort of QE3 or QE2.5 will be announced some time in July. It may have a very different name.
4. By August the debt limit will be raised.
5. The stock market will rally on these 2 items (more stimulus and the increased debt limit)
6. Things will look good going into the fall – the Christmas shopping season will begin.
No real problems at all. Obama re-elected Fall 2012.
June 18, 2011 at 11:39 PM #705487paramountParticipantHere’s my prediction over the summer:
1. Greece will have a bailout package within a week.
2. The stock market will have a choppy June and into July.
3. Some sort of QE3 or QE2.5 will be announced some time in July. It may have a very different name.
4. By August the debt limit will be raised.
5. The stock market will rally on these 2 items (more stimulus and the increased debt limit)
6. Things will look good going into the fall – the Christmas shopping season will begin.
No real problems at all. Obama re-elected Fall 2012.
June 18, 2011 at 11:39 PM #705335paramountParticipantHere’s my prediction over the summer:
1. Greece will have a bailout package within a week.
2. The stock market will have a choppy June and into July.
3. Some sort of QE3 or QE2.5 will be announced some time in July. It may have a very different name.
4. By August the debt limit will be raised.
5. The stock market will rally on these 2 items (more stimulus and the increased debt limit)
6. Things will look good going into the fall – the Christmas shopping season will begin.
No real problems at all. Obama re-elected Fall 2012.
June 18, 2011 at 11:39 PM #704647paramountParticipantHere’s my prediction over the summer:
1. Greece will have a bailout package within a week.
2. The stock market will have a choppy June and into July.
3. Some sort of QE3 or QE2.5 will be announced some time in July. It may have a very different name.
4. By August the debt limit will be raised.
5. The stock market will rally on these 2 items (more stimulus and the increased debt limit)
6. Things will look good going into the fall – the Christmas shopping season will begin.
No real problems at all. Obama re-elected Fall 2012.
June 19, 2011 at 12:40 AM #705350paramountParticipantI did some research into Armstrong, whom I don’t think I’d heard of before. A market genius? Seems like it. Political prisoner? I’d say partially, but he did apparently have some questionable business practices not unlike Bernie.
A link to a Manifesto of sorts authored by Armstrong is here (long read, but very interesting):
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
However, at this point in time his predictions are off (from a March 2007 article):
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February (2007) and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.
June 19, 2011 at 12:40 AM #705502paramountParticipantI did some research into Armstrong, whom I don’t think I’d heard of before. A market genius? Seems like it. Political prisoner? I’d say partially, but he did apparently have some questionable business practices not unlike Bernie.
A link to a Manifesto of sorts authored by Armstrong is here (long read, but very interesting):
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
However, at this point in time his predictions are off (from a March 2007 article):
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February (2007) and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.
June 19, 2011 at 12:40 AM #704662paramountParticipantI did some research into Armstrong, whom I don’t think I’d heard of before. A market genius? Seems like it. Political prisoner? I’d say partially, but he did apparently have some questionable business practices not unlike Bernie.
A link to a Manifesto of sorts authored by Armstrong is here (long read, but very interesting):
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
However, at this point in time his predictions are off (from a March 2007 article):
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February (2007) and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.
June 19, 2011 at 12:40 AM #704754paramountParticipantI did some research into Armstrong, whom I don’t think I’d heard of before. A market genius? Seems like it. Political prisoner? I’d say partially, but he did apparently have some questionable business practices not unlike Bernie.
A link to a Manifesto of sorts authored by Armstrong is here (long read, but very interesting):
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
However, at this point in time his predictions are off (from a March 2007 article):
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February (2007) and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.
June 19, 2011 at 12:40 AM #705864paramountParticipantI did some research into Armstrong, whom I don’t think I’d heard of before. A market genius? Seems like it. Political prisoner? I’d say partially, but he did apparently have some questionable business practices not unlike Bernie.
A link to a Manifesto of sorts authored by Armstrong is here (long read, but very interesting):
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
However, at this point in time his predictions are off (from a March 2007 article):
According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February (2007) and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy.
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