This thread is in response to some recent posters who haven’t done much research. A few posters have recently said no one predicted the bubble, called the peak, etc… Others are asking strange questions like, are we near the bottom?, etc… It is apparent some people just breeze in and post without doing much reading first. I haven’t followed this board as long as many, but I have been following piggington since late 2005. Fortunately for us, Rich saves all of his commentary and you can read the month by month reports for yourself. He isn’t hiding from anything he has said and has no reason to. He can be justifiably proud of his work.
My confidence in the collective wisdom of this board is due to the fact that things are playing out exactly as predicted. It’s tough to argue with results. Rich has taken great pains to interpret the month to month data fairly. He knew the peak was coming, shared why, and looked carefully for the evidence in the data each month. He waited for undisputed evidence for the market as a whole before declaring the party over, though throughout the months leading up to his declaration he clearly suggested the likely long term future of prices and showed why there wouldn’t be any “soft landing.”
Rich noted that the market decline was undisputedly seen as of the May 2006 data. Go read his report. He couldn’t have been much clearer, though as usual he was quite measured in his tone and careful about his claims. Prior to that month (as he summarized) he had been fairly neutral and extremely cautious about conclusions that could be justifiably drawn from the monthly data. For months the writing was on the wall but he refused to excessively extrapolate a given month’s data. He suggested factors to watch and reported on them frequently. Seriously, everyone should go back and read the monthly summaries from at least late 2005 on. Impressive. Great site Rich. Thanks for educating me.
The factors identified prior to the peak are in play now and having the effects predicted. When Rich starts getting neutral about what the data is saying about future prices that will probably be the “bottom”. In actuality the momentum will have already turned and he will have already shared the truth for those who care to know. It took from late 2005 to mid 2006 for the peak to show up in the data so the market “bottom” is unlikely to be a single month either. It will take several months to be sure the change isn’t noise but the future increase in the price data will have been plainly presented here in plenty of time to take action.
Listen to Bugs and a few of the long time solid posters as well.
Rich was and is very conservative about his predictions, but I can tell you with a high degree of certainty that the top was called at the Ben Jone’s blog fairly early. That blog is less data driven than this one is and uses the MSM to chronicle what is happening all over the country although the California posts get the most responses…upwards of 300 in many cases.
Oh yeah, and Schizo, if you think I’m a nasty bitter renter a-hole, then go post your nonsense at that blog…you will get your a** handed to you in shorter order than here.
.
