John Paulson : Buy Homes

[UCGal]

[quote=sobmaz]Check the price of your utilities y over y, insurance, food, all living expenses and tell me if there is deflation.

Yep, if all you do is buy plasma tvs and computers there is deflation but most people spend their money on food, rent, utilities and insurance.[/quote]
Gas prices are down YoY.

My mortgage rates are down YoY because of a refi.

Milk is about the same as last year – which is down considerably from 2008.

My utilities (sdg&e)are flat or down YoY (some of that may be due to conservation – I just looked at the total bills.)

More restaurants and specialty shops (bakeries etc) run specials – bringing the prices down.

Insurance – my auto insurance has been going down – but I assume that’s because my cars are getting older. My homeowners has stayed pretty flat…

I don’t see inflation on day to day expense… The only place I see a big hit is there are NO sales/discounts on airfare. You can find bargains on hotel and vacation rental deals – but airfare has gone up for lower service, higher fees, smaller seats.

[bearishgurl]

Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant]

[bearishgurl]

Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant]

[bearishgurl]

Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant]

[bearishgurl]

Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant]

[bearishgurl]

Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant]

[sreeb]

[quote=deadzone]Why would any big time manager announce their strategy to the world? Not gonna happen.[/quote]

Because he has already fully bought in.

[sreeb]

[quote=deadzone]Why would any big time manager announce their strategy to the world? Not gonna happen.[/quote]

Because he has already fully bought in.

[sreeb]

[quote=deadzone]Why would any big time manager announce their strategy to the world? Not gonna happen.[/quote]

Because he has already fully bought in.

[sreeb]

[quote=deadzone]Why would any big time manager announce their strategy to the world? Not gonna happen.[/quote]

Because he has already fully bought in.

[sreeb]

[quote=deadzone]Why would any big time manager announce their strategy to the world? Not gonna happen.[/quote]

Because he has already fully bought in.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl]Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant][/quote]

“Living a healthy lifestyle” in no way guarantees good health, unfortunately. I have seen far too many examples that refute this myth. Conversely, there are many people who drink, smoke, and drug their way through life, and die in their 80s. We all WANT to believe that we control our destiny WRT health, but that’s far from reality. Believe me, I wish it weren’t so.

Anyway, as to inflation…you have to look at where WEALTHY people would try to hedge their risks: real estate, commodities, stocks, foreign currencies, etc. All of those asset classes are decidedly up, even here in the U.S. (land of “The Greatest Recession…”). Look overseas for even more evidence of inflation. Today’s dollars buy a lot less than they did last year, IMHO.

Looking at a small sampling of housing markets in economically depressed areas, and maybe some consumer goods that depend on Joe Sixpack’s spending, is not taking a large enough perspective of it. As of right now, inflation seems to be winning. Whether or not it can continue, and at what price, is where the money will be made (or saved).

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl]Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant][/quote]

“Living a healthy lifestyle” in no way guarantees good health, unfortunately. I have seen far too many examples that refute this myth. Conversely, there are many people who drink, smoke, and drug their way through life, and die in their 80s. We all WANT to believe that we control our destiny WRT health, but that’s far from reality. Believe me, I wish it weren’t so.

Anyway, as to inflation…you have to look at where WEALTHY people would try to hedge their risks: real estate, commodities, stocks, foreign currencies, etc. All of those asset classes are decidedly up, even here in the U.S. (land of “The Greatest Recession…”). Look overseas for even more evidence of inflation. Today’s dollars buy a lot less than they did last year, IMHO.

Looking at a small sampling of housing markets in economically depressed areas, and maybe some consumer goods that depend on Joe Sixpack’s spending, is not taking a large enough perspective of it. As of right now, inflation seems to be winning. Whether or not it can continue, and at what price, is where the money will be made (or saved).

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl]Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant][/quote]

“Living a healthy lifestyle” in no way guarantees good health, unfortunately. I have seen far too many examples that refute this myth. Conversely, there are many people who drink, smoke, and drug their way through life, and die in their 80s. We all WANT to believe that we control our destiny WRT health, but that’s far from reality. Believe me, I wish it weren’t so.

Anyway, as to inflation…you have to look at where WEALTHY people would try to hedge their risks: real estate, commodities, stocks, foreign currencies, etc. All of those asset classes are decidedly up, even here in the U.S. (land of “The Greatest Recession…”). Look overseas for even more evidence of inflation. Today’s dollars buy a lot less than they did last year, IMHO.

Looking at a small sampling of housing markets in economically depressed areas, and maybe some consumer goods that depend on Joe Sixpack’s spending, is not taking a large enough perspective of it. As of right now, inflation seems to be winning. Whether or not it can continue, and at what price, is where the money will be made (or saved).

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl]Slightly or moderately UP in the last 18 mos:

Cable/Internet/phone pkg (no changes made)
Milk
Canned goods
Health Ins. premium
Postage – I send all sizes of envelopes

Moderately DOWN in the last 18 mos:

Sewer
Mortgage payment

Auto/homeowner’s ins premiums remained the same

I vote for deflation/status-quo at the present. It could turn the other way but I don’t see this happening until 2014-15, if at all.

As soon as the Health Care Reform Act kicks in in full force (2014) premiums are going to get REALLY UGLY for everyone because all the carriers will be MANDATED to cover EVERYONE at a “semi-affordable” PRICE. Right now, they ARE mandated to take everyone who applies, but can CHARGE accordingly. Before the HCRA passed, they could just REFUSE to cover the people they didn’t want. This will be a BIG DING on everyone’s budgets as I don’t see employers picking up this extra tab.

The healthy (lucky?) individuals’ health premiums are/will be subsidizing the self-destructive (unlucky?) types. It’s just another form of spreading the wealth/risk around that does not reward persons who choose to live a healthy lifestyle.

[end of rant][/quote]

“Living a healthy lifestyle” in no way guarantees good health, unfortunately. I have seen far too many examples that refute this myth. Conversely, there are many people who drink, smoke, and drug their way through life, and die in their 80s. We all WANT to believe that we control our destiny WRT health, but that’s far from reality. Believe me, I wish it weren’t so.

Anyway, as to inflation…you have to look at where WEALTHY people would try to hedge their risks: real estate, commodities, stocks, foreign currencies, etc. All of those asset classes are decidedly up, even here in the U.S. (land of “The Greatest Recession…”). Look overseas for even more evidence of inflation. Today’s dollars buy a lot less than they did last year, IMHO.

Looking at a small sampling of housing markets in economically depressed areas, and maybe some consumer goods that depend on Joe Sixpack’s spending, is not taking a large enough perspective of it. As of right now, inflation seems to be winning. Whether or not it can continue, and at what price, is where the money will be made (or saved).

[Author]

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