Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Jim Grant: “From Bear to Bull” – WSJ 9/19/09
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4plexowner.
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September 21, 2009 at 9:38 AM #460482September 21, 2009 at 9:41 AM #459688
4plexowner
ParticipantI used to get frustrated with John Mauldin because he wasn’t bearish enough for my tastes – his continual talk of the ‘muddle through’ economy made me think he was more interested in keeping his clients than in discussing economic realities – his tone has shifted in recent weeks – perhaps he is acknowledging that the chances of muddling through are becoming slimmer and slimmer
here is John’s latest:
The Hole in FDIC
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1253513460.phpas Arraya points out, John rips the FDIC a new one in this article (by pointing out the facts in a straightforward, logical manner supported by charts) – check out his comments on artificial deflation if you still place any validity in govt provided economic numbers – he also briefly mentions flash trading and some volume oddities in the equities markets – if you have money in stocks you should educate yourself on how they actually work (and not how you think they work)
snippets from John’s letter:
“Yes, we are seeing statistical growth in the economy this quarter and probably the next. But unemployment is rising and wages and incomes are falling. We will go into that next week.
We are in for a very poor, jobless recovery, and the risk of falling into a double-dip recession is quite high. The stock market is pricing in a steep V-shaped recovery in both GDP and corporate profits. I am not convinced.”
“How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume?
Before I hit the send button, a brief comment on a very odd market happening. It appears that recently up to 40% of the volume in the NYSE is in just four low-priced financial stocks. “According to Reuters, four beaten-up financial companies – Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE) – have accounted for upwards of 40 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange to begin this week.”
The stocks are basically churning in price. Why is this? There are a lot of theories, so let me offer one of my own. I think it has a lot to do with flash trading. As I wrote in a previous letter, with high-frequency program trading hedge funds and sophisticated brokers can make as much as 0.5 cents buying and selling a share of stock at breakeven. Supposedly, the exchanges pay these premiums for adding liquidity. But we are seeing liquidity in stocks where none is needed.”
[4plex: John is implying that the volume oddity is an unintended consequence of flash trading – other analysts have suggested that the 4 stocks in question are being manipulated, pointing to the fact that 3 of them have been bailed out by the govt in one way or another and the 4th one is on life-support – who knows what the truth is]
September 21, 2009 at 9:41 AM #459882ParticipantI used to get frustrated with John Mauldin because he wasn’t bearish enough for my tastes – his continual talk of the ‘muddle through’ economy made me think he was more interested in keeping his clients than in discussing economic realities – his tone has shifted in recent weeks – perhaps he is acknowledging that the chances of muddling through are becoming slimmer and slimmer
here is John’s latest:
The Hole in FDIC
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1253513460.phpas Arraya points out, John rips the FDIC a new one in this article (by pointing out the facts in a straightforward, logical manner supported by charts) – check out his comments on artificial deflation if you still place any validity in govt provided economic numbers – he also briefly mentions flash trading and some volume oddities in the equities markets – if you have money in stocks you should educate yourself on how they actually work (and not how you think they work)
snippets from John’s letter:
“Yes, we are seeing statistical growth in the economy this quarter and probably the next. But unemployment is rising and wages and incomes are falling. We will go into that next week.
We are in for a very poor, jobless recovery, and the risk of falling into a double-dip recession is quite high. The stock market is pricing in a steep V-shaped recovery in both GDP and corporate profits. I am not convinced.”
“How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume?
Before I hit the send button, a brief comment on a very odd market happening. It appears that recently up to 40% of the volume in the NYSE is in just four low-priced financial stocks. “According to Reuters, four beaten-up financial companies – Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE) – have accounted for upwards of 40 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange to begin this week.”
The stocks are basically churning in price. Why is this? There are a lot of theories, so let me offer one of my own. I think it has a lot to do with flash trading. As I wrote in a previous letter, with high-frequency program trading hedge funds and sophisticated brokers can make as much as 0.5 cents buying and selling a share of stock at breakeven. Supposedly, the exchanges pay these premiums for adding liquidity. But we are seeing liquidity in stocks where none is needed.”
[4plex: John is implying that the volume oddity is an unintended consequence of flash trading – other analysts have suggested that the 4 stocks in question are being manipulated, pointing to the fact that 3 of them have been bailed out by the govt in one way or another and the 4th one is on life-support – who knows what the truth is]
September 21, 2009 at 9:41 AM #460216ParticipantI used to get frustrated with John Mauldin because he wasn’t bearish enough for my tastes – his continual talk of the ‘muddle through’ economy made me think he was more interested in keeping his clients than in discussing economic realities – his tone has shifted in recent weeks – perhaps he is acknowledging that the chances of muddling through are becoming slimmer and slimmer
here is John’s latest:
The Hole in FDIC
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1253513460.phpas Arraya points out, John rips the FDIC a new one in this article (by pointing out the facts in a straightforward, logical manner supported by charts) – check out his comments on artificial deflation if you still place any validity in govt provided economic numbers – he also briefly mentions flash trading and some volume oddities in the equities markets – if you have money in stocks you should educate yourself on how they actually work (and not how you think they work)
snippets from John’s letter:
“Yes, we are seeing statistical growth in the economy this quarter and probably the next. But unemployment is rising and wages and incomes are falling. We will go into that next week.
We are in for a very poor, jobless recovery, and the risk of falling into a double-dip recession is quite high. The stock market is pricing in a steep V-shaped recovery in both GDP and corporate profits. I am not convinced.”
“How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume?
Before I hit the send button, a brief comment on a very odd market happening. It appears that recently up to 40% of the volume in the NYSE is in just four low-priced financial stocks. “According to Reuters, four beaten-up financial companies – Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE) – have accounted for upwards of 40 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange to begin this week.”
The stocks are basically churning in price. Why is this? There are a lot of theories, so let me offer one of my own. I think it has a lot to do with flash trading. As I wrote in a previous letter, with high-frequency program trading hedge funds and sophisticated brokers can make as much as 0.5 cents buying and selling a share of stock at breakeven. Supposedly, the exchanges pay these premiums for adding liquidity. But we are seeing liquidity in stocks where none is needed.”
[4plex: John is implying that the volume oddity is an unintended consequence of flash trading – other analysts have suggested that the 4 stocks in question are being manipulated, pointing to the fact that 3 of them have been bailed out by the govt in one way or another and the 4th one is on life-support – who knows what the truth is]
September 21, 2009 at 9:41 AM #460288ParticipantI used to get frustrated with John Mauldin because he wasn’t bearish enough for my tastes – his continual talk of the ‘muddle through’ economy made me think he was more interested in keeping his clients than in discussing economic realities – his tone has shifted in recent weeks – perhaps he is acknowledging that the chances of muddling through are becoming slimmer and slimmer
here is John’s latest:
The Hole in FDIC
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1253513460.phpas Arraya points out, John rips the FDIC a new one in this article (by pointing out the facts in a straightforward, logical manner supported by charts) – check out his comments on artificial deflation if you still place any validity in govt provided economic numbers – he also briefly mentions flash trading and some volume oddities in the equities markets – if you have money in stocks you should educate yourself on how they actually work (and not how you think they work)
snippets from John’s letter:
“Yes, we are seeing statistical growth in the economy this quarter and probably the next. But unemployment is rising and wages and incomes are falling. We will go into that next week.
We are in for a very poor, jobless recovery, and the risk of falling into a double-dip recession is quite high. The stock market is pricing in a steep V-shaped recovery in both GDP and corporate profits. I am not convinced.”
“How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume?
Before I hit the send button, a brief comment on a very odd market happening. It appears that recently up to 40% of the volume in the NYSE is in just four low-priced financial stocks. “According to Reuters, four beaten-up financial companies – Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE) – have accounted for upwards of 40 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange to begin this week.”
The stocks are basically churning in price. Why is this? There are a lot of theories, so let me offer one of my own. I think it has a lot to do with flash trading. As I wrote in a previous letter, with high-frequency program trading hedge funds and sophisticated brokers can make as much as 0.5 cents buying and selling a share of stock at breakeven. Supposedly, the exchanges pay these premiums for adding liquidity. But we are seeing liquidity in stocks where none is needed.”
[4plex: John is implying that the volume oddity is an unintended consequence of flash trading – other analysts have suggested that the 4 stocks in question are being manipulated, pointing to the fact that 3 of them have been bailed out by the govt in one way or another and the 4th one is on life-support – who knows what the truth is]
September 21, 2009 at 9:41 AM #460487ParticipantI used to get frustrated with John Mauldin because he wasn’t bearish enough for my tastes – his continual talk of the ‘muddle through’ economy made me think he was more interested in keeping his clients than in discussing economic realities – his tone has shifted in recent weeks – perhaps he is acknowledging that the chances of muddling through are becoming slimmer and slimmer
here is John’s latest:
The Hole in FDIC
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1253513460.phpas Arraya points out, John rips the FDIC a new one in this article (by pointing out the facts in a straightforward, logical manner supported by charts) – check out his comments on artificial deflation if you still place any validity in govt provided economic numbers – he also briefly mentions flash trading and some volume oddities in the equities markets – if you have money in stocks you should educate yourself on how they actually work (and not how you think they work)
snippets from John’s letter:
“Yes, we are seeing statistical growth in the economy this quarter and probably the next. But unemployment is rising and wages and incomes are falling. We will go into that next week.
We are in for a very poor, jobless recovery, and the risk of falling into a double-dip recession is quite high. The stock market is pricing in a steep V-shaped recovery in both GDP and corporate profits. I am not convinced.”
“How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume?
Before I hit the send button, a brief comment on a very odd market happening. It appears that recently up to 40% of the volume in the NYSE is in just four low-priced financial stocks. “According to Reuters, four beaten-up financial companies – Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), and Freddie Mac (FRE) – have accounted for upwards of 40 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange to begin this week.”
The stocks are basically churning in price. Why is this? There are a lot of theories, so let me offer one of my own. I think it has a lot to do with flash trading. As I wrote in a previous letter, with high-frequency program trading hedge funds and sophisticated brokers can make as much as 0.5 cents buying and selling a share of stock at breakeven. Supposedly, the exchanges pay these premiums for adding liquidity. But we are seeing liquidity in stocks where none is needed.”
[4plex: John is implying that the volume oddity is an unintended consequence of flash trading – other analysts have suggested that the 4 stocks in question are being manipulated, pointing to the fact that 3 of them have been bailed out by the govt in one way or another and the 4th one is on life-support – who knows what the truth is]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #459718Arraya
Participant[img_assist|nid=11941|title=Mission Accomplished|desc=They need one with Bernake as well..|link=node|align=left|width=1074|height=600]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #459911Participant[img_assist|nid=11941|title=Mission Accomplished|desc=They need one with Bernake as well..|link=node|align=left|width=1074|height=600]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #460246Participant[img_assist|nid=11941|title=Mission Accomplished|desc=They need one with Bernake as well..|link=node|align=left|width=1074|height=600]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #460317Participant[img_assist|nid=11941|title=Mission Accomplished|desc=They need one with Bernake as well..|link=node|align=left|width=1074|height=600]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #460516Participant[img_assist|nid=11941|title=Mission Accomplished|desc=They need one with Bernake as well..|link=node|align=left|width=1074|height=600]
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #459760ParticipantThe Ponzi-style “debt accumulation” game has hit its natural limit and yet The Fed refuses to admit to the facts and allow outstanding debt to default, instead conspiring with Treasury to transfer as much of the default risk as possible to The Federal Government itself! By purchasing nearly a trillion dollars of “agency” paper The Fed is essentially attempting to force Treasury to issue a full-faith-and-credit guarantee against securities where such a guarantee is explicitly disavowed.
I fully expect in the not-distant future an explicit threat that should The Fed be audited or worse, should that demanded guarantee be refused “The End Of The World” will ensue – yet another threat of martial law and similar “end times” prophecy, coming directly as a consequence of the intentional actions of The Federal Reserve and Treasury themselves.
There is no avoiding the math folks.Good ol’ Karl….
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #459952ParticipantThe Ponzi-style “debt accumulation” game has hit its natural limit and yet The Fed refuses to admit to the facts and allow outstanding debt to default, instead conspiring with Treasury to transfer as much of the default risk as possible to The Federal Government itself! By purchasing nearly a trillion dollars of “agency” paper The Fed is essentially attempting to force Treasury to issue a full-faith-and-credit guarantee against securities where such a guarantee is explicitly disavowed.
I fully expect in the not-distant future an explicit threat that should The Fed be audited or worse, should that demanded guarantee be refused “The End Of The World” will ensue – yet another threat of martial law and similar “end times” prophecy, coming directly as a consequence of the intentional actions of The Federal Reserve and Treasury themselves.
There is no avoiding the math folks.Good ol’ Karl….
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #460285ParticipantThe Ponzi-style “debt accumulation” game has hit its natural limit and yet The Fed refuses to admit to the facts and allow outstanding debt to default, instead conspiring with Treasury to transfer as much of the default risk as possible to The Federal Government itself! By purchasing nearly a trillion dollars of “agency” paper The Fed is essentially attempting to force Treasury to issue a full-faith-and-credit guarantee against securities where such a guarantee is explicitly disavowed.
I fully expect in the not-distant future an explicit threat that should The Fed be audited or worse, should that demanded guarantee be refused “The End Of The World” will ensue – yet another threat of martial law and similar “end times” prophecy, coming directly as a consequence of the intentional actions of The Federal Reserve and Treasury themselves.
There is no avoiding the math folks.Good ol’ Karl….
September 21, 2009 at 12:51 PM #460359ParticipantThe Ponzi-style “debt accumulation” game has hit its natural limit and yet The Fed refuses to admit to the facts and allow outstanding debt to default, instead conspiring with Treasury to transfer as much of the default risk as possible to The Federal Government itself! By purchasing nearly a trillion dollars of “agency” paper The Fed is essentially attempting to force Treasury to issue a full-faith-and-credit guarantee against securities where such a guarantee is explicitly disavowed.
I fully expect in the not-distant future an explicit threat that should The Fed be audited or worse, should that demanded guarantee be refused “The End Of The World” will ensue – yet another threat of martial law and similar “end times” prophecy, coming directly as a consequence of the intentional actions of The Federal Reserve and Treasury themselves.
There is no avoiding the math folks.Good ol’ Karl….
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